PGA Golf Betting Picks and Odds for the 2021 Memorial Tournament

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Tiger Woods, Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy and others join an already star-studded field at Muirfield Village golf course, which is hosting its second PGA tournament in as many weeks. Follow along as we look at the field and analyze golf odds from online sports betting sites before making our PGA golf betting picks for the 2020 Memorial Tournament.

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Collin Morikawa’s victory on Sunday couldn’t have come at a better time. One week after a 125-1 pick finished runner-up at Rocket Mortgage Classic, Morikawa (+3300) would help us cash a 33-1 golf betting ticket at the Workday Charity Open. While Morikawa entered the third round with the largest 36-hole lead on Tour this season, the victory did not come easy nor sweat-free. Things began looking shaky on Saturday, and the 23-year-old shot an even-par 72 while Justin Thomas’ back-to-back 66s to meant Morikawa would enter Round 4 trailing by three strokes. Additionally, Viktor Hovland was led Morikawa by one stroke. However it was Thomas who started shaky on Sunday before charging back later in the round. By the 16th hole, Morikawa was a +1700 underdog live, but consecutive bogeys from Thomas gave Morikawa a chance to go to a playoff with Thomas. Like the Colonial just over a month ago, Morikawa nearly putted away the opportunity, lipping in a two-foot putt to tie. From there, it took three sudden-death holes before Morikawa would come out with his second professional victory. A magician with his irons, Morikawa now has more wins than missed cuts on Tour since turning pro.

Golfers will stick around at Muirfield Village for one more week, as the course plays host to the 2020 Memorial Tournament.

Memorial Tournament Course Preview: Muirfield Village

Since it’s the same course, albeit longer rough and faster greens, our Muirfield Village course preview will be brief. Like last week, we want to target good ball-strikers and golfers who excel in the strokes gained approach department. Traditionally, putting has been somewhat nullified at Muirfield thanks to its small greens. On one hand, faster greens this week could pose a greater threat to golfers who generally struggle with the short stick than they did a week ago. On the other hand, the greens might be more beat up than usual, adding a dose of randomness and leveling the playing field between the good putters and bad putters.

Betting Favorites at the Memorial Tournament

Of little surprise, it’s Bryson Dechambeau +1000 who sits atop golf betting boards at most online sports betting sites, with one exception: at DraftKings Sportsbook Justin Thomas is +900. If you’re interested in last week’s runner-up, you can find him at +1200 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Rory McIlory +1400 comes in third, followed by Patrick Cantlay +1600, Dustin Johnson +1800, Jon Rahm and Collin Morikawa each +2200. As we inch closer to the mid-tier odds, you’ll find Webb Simpson and Viktor Hovland +2500, Brooks Koepka +2800, Xander Schauffele +3300.

Among all the storylines from the favorites—Dechambeau’s power, Koepka’s smack talk, Morikawa’s victory, and Patrick Cantlay’s course history—it’s Tiger Woods’ return to competitive golf that will be talked about most between now and the first round of the Memorial Tournament.

Also read: Tiger Woods Odds, Props, Promos, and Best Bets for the Memorial

There was a short-lived rumor that there might be a Tiger sighting three weeks ago at Harbour Town, but Woods decided to sit back and wait for the tournament at Jack’s place, a venue at which Tiger has won five times throughout his storied career. It has been five months since Tiger has played competitive golf, and while there will be no fans in attendance, you don’t have to look beyond Twitter, ESPN, or the Golf Channel to feel the buzz. To win a sixth Memorial title, Tiger will have to beat a major-like field and feature all the names above and some notable names in mid-tier odds.

Before we go there, there is one golfer I want to bet on who I already mentioned: Jon Rahm +2200 at BetMGM Rahm wasn’t hitting on all cylinders in his first three rounds but he led the field in strokes gained tee-to-green on Sunday. Despite putting only average, Rahm put together an 8-under 64. Here’s to Rham starting the Memorial where he left off at Muirfield Village.

[To bet on Jon Rahm +2200 at BetMGM, click here!]

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The Memorial Tournament’s Mid-Tier Odds

When it comes to mid-tier golf odds, we’ll begin with Rickie Fowler who is +4000 at FanDuel Sportsbook compared to +3300 at most other U.S. sportsbooks. Fowler was competitive last week thanks to a third-round 66. After missing the cut in his first two tournaments Fowler seems to be settling into his swing change, finishing 12th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 22nd on Sunday. However I’m not sure Fowler is ready to win again yet. He shot two rounds of 72 or worse at the Workday Open, and he actually lost two strokes on his approach shots despite gaining 6.2 tee-to-green.

Following Fowler are Daniel Berger +4000, Gary Woodland +4500, Patrick Reed and Abraham Ancer +5000, Justin Rose +6000, Jason Day and Tony Finau +6500.

Leaving no time to waste, Berger was the first golfer to raise a trophy after the golf hiatus. He nearly made it back-to-back wins but settled for a third-place at the Heritage. Berger enters playing 42 consecutive rounds at par or better and missing merely two cuts in his last 22 events. Of betting options +2500 or longer, you won’t find a golfer playing better than Berger. I prefer Berger over someone like Woodland, who was close to missing the cut on Friday before having his way on the greens for a top-five finish. That’ doesn’t mean Woodland is a bad option; he gained strokes everywhere but around the green.

[To bet on Daniel Berger +4000 at FanDuel Sportsbook, click here!]

One golfer who didn’t make it through to the weekend at Muirfield Part I was Justin Rose. Rose was a popular PGA DFS pick and he was on my betting card at +2600. Unfortunately for Rose backers, the Englishman failed to break 80 on Friday. Concerning indeed, but I’m willing to let it slide considering we can now back him at +6000. Of course, the field’s strength partially explains the odds adjustment but even combined with his lackluster performance, it’s not enough to justify making him +6000. Look at DraftKings DFS pricing for instance: Rose was $9,700 a week ago but only fell to $8,900 for the Memorial. In terms of DFS pricing, Rose is still in front of Fowler, Berger, Woodland and Ancer, only $100 cheaper than Tiger, yet there’s a significant difference when you look at golf betting odds. Rose has had a tone of success at Muirfield, and I’m willing to bet on him again. As I pointed seven days ago, Rose has four top-tens here dating back to the 2012 PGA Tour season. Let’s hope last Friday was a fluke.

[To bet on Justin Rose +6000 at FOX Bet, click here!]

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The Memorial Tournament Longshot Golf Betting Picks

Though plenty of big names fill tee times at the Memorial, there’s a handful of longshot golf betting picks I like this week, including Sunjae Im +9000.

Shooting a 76 on Sunday, Im left much to desire at Muirfield Village over the weekend. Im hasn’t looked near as sharp as he did before Tour officials put the season on hold. Remember, Im followed up his first PGA Tour victory at the Honda Classic with a third-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Oddsmakers shorted Im to roughly +3000 (down from +6000 previously) at the Charles Schwab Challenge, where he would finish in the top 10. Since then, Im has a MC and three finishes between 53rd and 63rd. Similar to Rose, I like buying low on a golfer who I know is better than their current odds suggest. Moreover, Im often takes aggressive lines at holes, which gives him a higher ceiling if he’s striking the ball at all cylinders.

Do you know who led the field in strokes gained ball-striking and approach last week? Not Collin Morikawa, not Viktor Hovland, and not Justin Thomas…it was Keegan Bradley. Bradley’s numbers are slightly inflated thanks to a hole-in-one but he hit the ball remarkably well for someone who only finished T39. Unsurprisingly Bradley struggled with the short stick, losing seven strokes on the green. That stat is both comforting and terrifying. Luckily we only have to risk a little to win a lot on Bradley, who is +20000 at FOX Bet.

Here are the other longshots I’m betting on:

Byeong Hun An +15000 – Benny An caught fire on Friday shooting a 6-under 30 on the front nine before rain delay helped put him out. He missed the cut by two strokes due to first-round 76. An has played, and putted, well at Muirfield. Aside from the recent MC, his results include a runner-up and three top-25 finishes.
Matthew Wolff +17500 – I won’t get too in-depth here; Wolff won two weeks ago with a hot putter, e hits the ball far, was one of the top and collegiate golfers before turning pro. As he’s already shown twice in his short professional career, Wolff has winning upside. I prefer backing Wolff in weaker fields, but I’ll be betting on him more times than not at this price.

Harold Varner +25000 – Varner was another popular 100-1 golf betting who missed the cut at the Workday Charity Open. Not enough has changed from one week to the next to scare me away.

Memorial Tournament Betting Picks Late Adds

Tiger Woods +2800 – The FOMO is real. I might be a little late to the party but we can still grab Tiger 28-1 at FOX Bet as of Tuesday afternoon. Tiger looked great in the second rendition of Tiger vs. Phil and the Muirfield, drawing similarities to Augusta, sets up will for a strong ball-striking performance from Tiger. Beyond that, there’s no explanation needed.

[To bet on these golf odds at FOX Bet, click here!]

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Work Charity Open Golf Betting Card

Golfer Odds Risk To Win Sportsbook
Jon Rahm +2200 1u 22u BetMGM
Daniel Berger +4000 1u 40u FanDuel
Justin Rose +6000 1u 60u FOX Bet
Sunjae Im +9000 1u 90u FOX Bet
Byeong Hun An +15000 0.20 30u FOX Bet
Matthew Wolff +15000 0.5u 75u FOX Bet
Keegan Bradley +20000 0.5u 100u FOX Bet
Harold Varner III +25000 0.25u 62.5u FOX Bet
Tiger Woods +2800 1u. 28u FOX Bet

2019-20 PGA Tour Season: -8.15 units

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

schmitto
Matt Schmitto (schmitto)

Matt Schmitto is an Organic Strategy Lead for Better Collective. He was introduced to daily fantasy sports in 2012 and soon became a member at RotoGrinders. Seven years later, Schmitto joined RotoGrinders Network full time as a staff writer shortly after the Supreme Court overturned PASPA. He has since covered important stories in the sports betting and fantasy sports industries for sites like SportsHandle and USBets and has had roles as a sports betting editor and commercial content manager. He continues to play DFS and loves placing Futures bets at sportsbooks. His favorite DFS sites are DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, and PrizePicks. Follow Schmitto on Twitter – @Matt_Schmitto