Mets vs. Dodgers Odds, Picks, & Prediction for Friday, August 20th

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-08-20 22:29:08

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida previews tonight’s Mets vs. Dodgers matchup. Follow along as he breaks down the odds and deals a free pick for Friday night. Here are more baseball bets for today. Also don’t miss this ridiculous welcome promo, a $5,000 risk-free bet from Caesars!

Mets vs Dodgers Odds

On Friday evening, the New York Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers will play the second contest in a four-game set at Dodger Stadium. Yesterday, Los Angeles used seven pitchers in a 4-1 victory for their 11th win in their last 12 games. Entering play, New York has lost six of their last seven games. Tonight, the Mets will send Carlos Carrasco to the hill, who will be countered by Walker Buehler. Oddsmakers are expecting another win for the Dodgers with Los Angeles listed as heavy -270 favorites on the money line.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

New York Mets

Carrasco has spent the majority of the campaign on the injured list, only recently being activated for his first action of the 2021 season. In his first 11.1 innings of work since being activated, he has posted an unsightly 10.32 ERA, 5.74 xERA, and a 7.59 FIP. However, it would be surprising if he continues to struggle this much, considering that he owns a 3.83 ERA and a 3.45 FIP for his career. Carrasco draws a difficult matchup tonight against the hottest team in baseball, but he should be able to turn in a decent outing.

Even if Carrasco pitches well, New York is going to have a difficult time winning this game, due to their extremely poor offensive attack. The Mets have been so bad at the plate of late that team owner Steve Cohen publicly lambasted the lineup for its lack of production. Over the last seven days, New York ranks 30th in OPS, 29th in ISO, and 26th in strikeout-percentage. Those numbers are only slightly better if the parameters are stretched out over the course of two weeks. The Mets have been struggling for long enough that it is reasonable to assume this to be their normal output, rather than simply a slump.

Even the Mets bullpen has been less than impressive over the last month—ranking only 14th in FIP. Certainly, with how much money the New York front office has invested in their relief corps, they expect better numbers than that.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Buehler has firmly entrenched himself in the National League Cy Young race with his dominant numbers over his last eight starts. Since the beginning of July, he has posted a 1.58 ERA and a 2.22 FIP. During that stretch, he owns a superb 29.9 strikeout-percentage against a 9.3 percent walk-rate. He has done a fantastic job of limiting baserunners with a 1.01 WHIP, and has only allowed a 4.1 percent barrel-rate. Buehler has done a great job working ahead in the count, throwing 67.2 percent of first pitches for strikes, which has unquestionably allowed him to be more aggressive with his pitch sequencing.

Buehler is supported by an offensive attack that ranks fifth in OPS over the last week, and eighth in OPS over the last 14 days. This is one of the most talented offenses in the league, and they should once again be able to create plenty of run-scoring opportunities in this one.

The main concerns backing Los Angeles this evening is the fact that their bullpen is extremely taxed. Betting them on the first five innings is another option that bettors might want to consider, if they do not want to risk a fatigue-related collapse in the late innings.

Pick

Seven of the Dodgers’ 11 wins in their last 12 games have come by two runs or more. Oddsmakers are going to force bettors to either pay an extremely steep price on the money line if backing Los Angeles, or induce them to bet on the run line—and for good reason. The Dodgers are still without arguably their best player, Mookie Betts, but are nonetheless the most talented team in the league. In this matchup, Los Angeles is trending upward as they try to close the gap in the National League West division race. The Mets are spiraling out of the playoff picture and show few signs of turning things around. Back the Dodgers here on the -1.5 spread.

PICK: Dodgers -1.5 (-122)

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