Miami Heat Futures Odds: Can Lowry Help Win the Eastern Conference Title?
The NBA never sleeps, not even in the offseason. From the draft to blockbuster trades and free agency signings, sportsbooks have had plenty to keep tabs on, including a major trade between the Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors. Our own Andy Means is here to break down what the deal means for Miami Heat futures odds and how you, the bettor, should view them now.
Heat Go All-in, Remain Longshots to Win NBA Title
Well, it’s safe to say that the Heat are going all in on the next year or two. In addition to giving the 35-year-old Lowry a three-year deal, they are also giving Jimmy Butler a max four-year contract extension that could be worth up to $184 million.
All of the movings-and-shakings from the Heat this offseason (we will get to all of them in a minute) have resulted in arguably a better core group of players but much less roster depth. In my eyes, that is a recipe for more of a grind in the regular season, while also being ideal for the playoffs. You know which team everyone said the same thing about last offseason after they made a big splashy trade?
The Milwaukee Bucks.
That’s right. After the Jrue Holiday trade, amongst others, the popular line you heard regarding the Bucks was that they hurt their depth, but that they set themselves up much better for a playoff run. Hmmmm, that seemed to work out okay for them I’d say…
Can the Miami Heat be this year’s Bucks? Well first, let’s do a brief overview of what the current Heat roster looks like.
Out the door are guys like Andre Iguodala, Kendrick Nunn, Trevor Ariza, and the aforementioned Dragic & Achiuwa.
In the door are P.J. Tucker, Markieff Morris, and of course, Kyle Lowry. They also re-signed sharpshooter Duncan Robinson to a huge five-year deal worth upwards of $90 million.
So what we see from the Heat this upcoming season is a starting lineup that probably entails Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, P.J. Tucker, and Bam Adebayo. The main reserves will be Tyler Herro, and…and….
Like I said, their depth took quite a hit.
The huge wildcard here will be the health of Victor Oladipo. The Heat also re-signed him this offseason to a small one-year deal, an offseason that saw Oladipo require another surgery to that injured quad.
When he returns to actually playing in games—and which version of Oladipo the Heat get—is anybody’s guess. I have seen reports that he could return as early as November, while the more realistic timelines seem to be suggesting he wouldn’t play in real games until as late as March. And who the heck knows what he looks like on the basketball court after yet another surgery on that quad.
But as bad as the overall depth looks, you have to like that starting five + Herro. When thinking of that mythical “Heat Culture”, I honestly couldn’t peg two better guys to add to it than Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker. (camera pans over to Pat Riley, nodding in agreement)
Whether Lowry is an upgrade over Dragic on the offensive end is certainly debatable; they both excel at that end in their own unique ways. Whether Lowry is an upgrade on the defensive end, however, is not debatable. His addition for the Heat is a win no matter which way you slice it, especially come playoff time.
And say what you want about P.J. Tucker (like, how he doesn’t do ANYTHING on the offensive end), but he clearly showed his worth to the Bucks in the playoffs. He made it about as hard on Kevin Durant as one can make it during that Bucks – Nets series. And do you think Tucker might be a good option to put on his former teammate, Giannis Antetokounmpo, should these two teams happen to meet in the playoffs?? I sure do!
Value on Heat’s Odds to Win Eastern Conference?
In regards to the Heat’s betting market, they are obviously a pretty big longshot to win it all. With teams out there like the Nets, Lakers, and Bucks, as well they should be. That being said, I still see plenty of value in them at +1300 on DraftKings to be the team that comes out of the Eastern Conference. Why? Glad you asked!
There are basically three teams in front of them with better odds: Nets, Bucks, and Sixers.
As it pertains to the Nets, a trio of Lowry, Jimmy, and Tucker—with Bam anchoring everything else—seems like the perfect group of guys to match up against Kyrie, Harden, and KD. Whether the Heat can score enough to beat the Nets in a series (should they meet) would be the key, but they certainly would give them a hell of a dogfight.
As for the Sixers and the whole Ben Simmons hoopla, we really have no idea what their roster will even look like by the time the playoffs roll around. Their odds could shoot up if they get someone like Damian Lillard, but they could also plummet if Daryl Morey ultimately has to sell a little lower than he’d like on Simmons just to move on from this whole situation.
And as for the defending champion, the Milwaukee Bucks, the Heat can put that same trio on Giannis, Middleton, and Jrue if they happen to run into them in the playoffs. And who knows, maybe Milwaukee doesn’t come back as hungry this season after winning their first championship in 50 years.
Ultimately, in terms of talent, this Heat team is definitely not on the same level as someone like the Brooklyn Nets. But with how Miami will be able to defend some of the best teams in their conference, I do see some pretty clear paths to them being able to make it out of the East come playoff time. Whether or not that ultimately happens will come down to plenty of variables, such as:
1. With their small core group containing a handful of vets that have plenty of miles on their legs, can the Heat stay relatively healthy this season? Or put another way, can they stay healthier than those upper echelon teams they are competing against?
2. Will they have enough shooting/spacing to put together a top-notch offense to go along with what should be an elite defense? We know how much gravity Duncan Robinson brings to the table, but outside of Lowry (and Herro), there are plenty of questions with the rest of this group. Butler refuses to shoot three’s. Tucker refuses to shoot in general, except for the occasional corner three. And Bam’s outside shooting appears to have regressed a little bit. This group will certainly have it’s challenges on the offensive end, especially when compared to the other best teams in the East. The Nets were #1 in Offensive Rating (117.3) last season, while the Bucks were fifth (116.5).
3. Will guys like Tyler Herro and KZ Okpala make a jump this season? I think we pretty much know what we are getting out of Duncan Robinson at this point, but Herro didn’t progress last season as I’m guessing most Heat fans (and execs, for that matter) had hoped. Remember though, player growth isn’t always linear. As for Okpala, he is about to get a big opportunity to prove that he can make a name for himself in this league. Will he capitalize on it to the point that he becomes a key rotation piece?
4. When will Oladipo play? How good will he be if/when he does play? I could see him being a huge difference maker for them this season, and I could also see him being a complete afterthought. Which will it be? Or will it land somewhere in the middle?
How will everything play out? Who knows! That’s why they play the games. If last season taught us anything, it’s that anything can happen. Do I think the Heat can be this season’s Milwaukee Bucks though? At +1300 to come out of the Eastern Conference, you bet I do!
Image Credit: Imagn