MLB ALCS Betting Picks: Yankees at Astros

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What appeared to be a foregone conclusion for quite some time manifested when the Astros defeated the Rays in Game 5 of their ALDS series. In a rematch of the 2017 American League Championship Series, the Yankees will take on the Astros for the right to represent the American League in the World Series. Largely considered the top two teams in the American League over the course of the season, many will point to this series as the main event with the winner likely to be favored headed into the World Series. Here is a sports betting preview and MLB betting picks for Game 1 of the ALCS.

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MLB ALCS Game 1 Betting Picks — Yankees vs. Astros

Yankees (+140) vs. Astros (-159), O/U 9 Runs

For a breakdown of the ALCS, read our ALCS Odds and Betting Picks article from this week.

Be sure to check out our MLB lines and betting odds comparison tool. The comparison tool highlights the best lines from three New Jersey online sports betting, saving you time and money as you make your MLB picks.

The Astros come into tonight favored to win the ALCS by a wide margin — -182 at the time of this writing. While both the Yankees and Astros will score runs, the pitching staff the Astros built at the trade deadline is tailor-made for a seven-game series. Both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole will get plenty of opportunities with Zack Greinke — tonight’s starter — filling in the gaps.

Notwithstanding being favored tonight, Greinke was tagged in his lone divisional series start — only pitching 3 and 2/3 innings while allowing five hits and six earned runs. The Rays connected for three home runs against Greinke and even though the start was on the road, the performance is still a cause for alarm. Greinke was pretty effective over the course of the season with a 3.73 xFIP and 23.2% K-rate. However, the starter struggled with hard contact this season, finishing with an 86.8 MPH aEV and 35.6 Hard%. Against righties, Greinke really struggled with power — allowing a 42.7 FB%, 36.4 Hard%, and 181.3-foot average hit distance. The Yankees are projected to start seven righties, tonight.

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For the Yankees, Masahiro Tanaka gets the ball after a strong performance in a victory over the Minnesota Twins in the divisional series. Tanaka allowed one earned run across five innings, striking out seven batters while allowing only four baserunners. Tanaka was not electric, but anytime a Yankees starter can get through five and deliver the ball to the bullpen, New York would consider that a win. Tanaka saw the Astros twice this season — pitching six innings in each start and allowing only three earned runs combined. Masahiro, however, only accumulated four strikeouts in those 12 innings. The current iteration of the Astros lineup brings only an 18% K-rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Like his counterpart, Tanaka was hit a bit hard this season — finishing with a 37.9 Hard% and 88.7 MPH aEV. His 1.4 HR/9 in 2019 could be an issue facing an Astros’ lineup with a .249 team ISO and 41.0 Hard%. Tanaka will need to find a way to get through five with the Yankees still in the game.

No surprise, the Yankees and Astros both enter the series as two of the top bullpens in the MLB. Both teams finished the season in the top five in xFIP and K% with the Astros finishing second in ERA (3.75) and third in batting average (.226). If this and future games stay close early, expect the under to hit often throughout the series.

MLB ALCS Game 1 Pick — Yankees (+140)

ALCS Game 1 Pick: Yankees on DraftKings Sportsbook (use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)

Given the matchup between the starting pitchers, tonight’s affair might be the one opportunity to take the Yankees at a nice price on the road. While both bullpens are stalwart and both lineups are tremendously talented, the discrepancy between the starting pitchers is not wide enough, in my opinion, to justify this gap. Knowing that any games started by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole will be tilted wildly in the favor of the Astros, Game 1 seems to be a good opportunity to take the price on the underdog. The Yankees have been on ice for a few days but should look at tonight’s road game as a great opportunity to jump ahead.

So, give me the Yankees to win at +140 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

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MLB ALCS Game 1 Betting Picks — Charlie Morton Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts

At the time of this writing, DraftKings Sportsbook offers this prop with -155 on the over and +124 on the under. Given his starts against the Astros this season and the makeup of the home team lineup, I am going to jump on the under here before the price moves. While four strikeouts seem like a very small mountain for Tanaka to climb, the nature of playoff baseball gives me plenty of outs — pun intended — to stay below this number.

If Tanaka struggles immediately out of the gate, Aaron Boone won’t hesitate to bring relief in before the game gets out of hand. Tanaka could be pitching well but get into one big jam where Boone feels the need to call on a reliever to bail the Yankees out. The bullpen is the strength of the Yankees. Aaron Boone will lean on his strength if Tanaka is in danger. Give me the under at +124.

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Thanks for stopping by and reading today’s piece. Look for more MLB playoff articles throughout the postseason.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

joeycis
Joe Cistaro (joeycis)

A high school mathematics teacher from New Jersey, Joe Cistaro (aka joeycis) is a lifelong fantasy sports fan. As a member of the RotoGrinders community, Joe cut his teeth writing for the website through the blogging program. Previously engaging the community with articles such as Home Run Derby and Finding Paydirt, Joe now focuses his time on sports betting content for both the NFL and the PGA TOUR. Follow Joe on Twitter – @ JoeCistaro