MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, April 26th)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Split the picks last week. Lost a game pick for the first time, with Detroit’s defense failing Jack Flaherty. He gave up a pair of unearned runs in the 1st inning, and the first 5 innings total ended up going over by 1. It happens. Cruised to a win with Justin Verlander. He did manage to go 6 innings but recorded just 4 strikeouts.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 3-1
- Prop Picks: 3-1
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago Cubs First 5 Innings Under 4 Runs (-120 on bet365)
The pricing for this one is interesting. Locked it in this morning on ScoresAndOdds at 4.5 (-137) on BetRivers. That line isn’t available anymore. FanDuel and BetMGM are at 3.5. bet365 still has 4 (-120) posted. It might not seem like much, but these differences are extremely important. The jump from 3.5 to 4.5 is massive, especially when runs are going to be at a premium. The bet365 line splits the middle and opens up the possibility of a push. I tend to take that line instead of the 3.5 at plus money, but I don’t mind going that route if that line is the only one available to you.
Shota Imanaga finally gave up some runs last time out, but he’s still been excellent. He’s just outside the top 10 in K-BB%, and while his 0.84 ERA is going to rise, his xERA is still a solid 3.34. The strikeouts have been solid, and he has a premier swing-and-miss pitch for both righties and lefties. Imanaga is throwing the splitter (51.2% whiff rate) to righties and the sweeper (33.3% whiff rate) to lefties, both of which pair well with his amazing fastball (+8 run value).
The problem is going to be home runs. Imanaga has a massive 39% fly-ball rate, and he’s 7th percentile in hard-hit rate. Good thing this projected lineup for Boston has just a .123 ISO vs. LHP since the start of 2023. The Red Sox also lead the league in K% against LHP. The winds are not blowing out at Wrigley Field today either, by the way.
Kutter Crawford has been equally impressive, with a 0.66 ERA and a 2.60 xERA. He’s got a career-high 27.3% K% to go with elite contact numbers (86th percentile in hard-hit rate, 88th percentile in average exit velocity). Chicago has been middling vs. RHP, but they’ve been hit hard by injuries. Their projected lineup has a brutal .293 wOBA against RHP since the start of last season.
Patrick Sandoval Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-160 on BetMGM)
Big number for an average strikeout pitcher in a mediocre matchup. Plenty of juice too; probably wouldn’t play it past -175.
Sandoval has the K% up to 23.3% this season, but not much has changed. The swinging-strike rate and CSW% are actually down slightly compared to 2023 when he posted a 19.6% K%. Sandoval smartly faded his fastball last season, throwing the slider and changeup more often. He’s reverted to throwing the 4-seamer more than his secondaries, and it’s been obliterated (.500 BA, .636 SLG). The slider grades out as his best pitch, and he threw it more than any other offering in 2023 (26%), but it’s his 3rd-most-used pitch right now (18.4%).
Sandoval has feasted on lefties in his career (.193/.264/.323), but he might not face any tonight. We have Minnesota’s projected lineup with 7 righties and 2 switch-hitters. It’s the same group they ran out there on Wednesday against Garrett Crochet, so I’m pretty confident in the projection. The Twins have huge strikeout issues against RHP, but this lineup is at an average 22.6% K% vs. LHP since the start of 2023.
Just think this is a strikeout or two too high.
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