MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, March 29)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
What To Expect This Season
This article will be similar to the one I’ve been writing weekly for the NBA this season. I’ll be picking my two favorite bets on the slate, one for a game and one for a player prop. As the title suggests, we’re all about unders here.
Sports betting continues to expand, both in terms of legal states and social media coverage. The majority of folks firing up a FanDuel or DraftKings sportsbook account for the first time are betting on overs, plain and simple. There’s nothing wrong with that, but it means the value on unders keeps increasing. Most people sending out screenshots of their 10-leg lottery ticket parlays are also taking overs. Social media is flooded with this type of content. And that’s fine! It’s fun to try to turn $5 into $5,000. But again, it adds more value on unders.
Unders can be a sick sweat, but I think it’s worth it. Ideally, the picks and information I share can help you make better bets. Even if you disagree with the pick, hopefully the analysis gives you an idea of where I’m coming from. You can then use that formula to find your own Best Bets.
Let’s have a year.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Oakland Athletics 2nd Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-140 on FanDuel)
Ah, yes, something nice and obscure to start the season. NRFI bets (no runs first inning) tend to be more popular, but they leave you vulnerable to the top of the order. Even bad lineups (and these teams certainly qualify) have decent hitters up top. While it usually comes with a little more juice, targeting the 2nd inning is my preferred route.
Cleveland and Oakland both sorely lack any lineup depth. The Guardians are quite thin after Josh Naylor, and the Athletics’ talent dries up after Brent Rooker. Cleveland was a bottom-10 offense against righties last season. Oakland was 27th or worse in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefties last year.
Logan Allen and Ross Stripling aren’t studs, but they’re decent. Back injuries ruined Stripling’s 2023 season, but he’d been a reliable starter for much of his career (3.96 ERA). Allen had a nice rookie season (3.81 ERA), even if the underlying numbers weren’t as kind (4.42 xERA). Would expect a quiet 2nd frame here.
George Kirby Under 0.5 Walks (+165 on BetMGM)
Obviously no margin for error here, but I love the combination of skills and matchup. Kirby has the best control in the league. He led all pitchers with a minuscule 2.5% BB% last season. Only four other pitchers were under 5%.
Boston had the 6th-lowest BB% against righties last season (7.5%), and tonight’s projected lineup combined for an even lower mark (6.7%). Against righties, this group was all the way down at a 5.6% BB%. Adding youngsters Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Enmanuel Valdez to the lineup on a regular basis makes this lineup more intriguing, but all three have struggled with plate discipline.
Kirby went 6 IP in his final spring outing, so he should be good to go for a normal workload. However, there’s still a chance Seattle doesn’t push him too far in his first outing of the season. I like the value here.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 0-0
- Prop Picks: 0-0
Image Credit: Getty Images