MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, September 13th)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
Split the picks again last week. Fernando Cruz struggled in the 1st inning but got a nice assist from Brandon Williamson, and Sean Manaea cruised. Luis Gil went much deeper into the game than expected. Thought we were good after 5 innings, but he came back out for the 6th and got there. Still feel good about that play.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 15-8-1
- Prop Picks: 13-11
Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-145 on BetMGM)
It’s hard to believe how bad the White Sox have been against LHP. For all of their shortcomings, those numbers are the most glaring. Backing any lefty facing Chicago has been a solid formula, but that theory will be put to the test with a relative unknown in Brady Basso.
The White Sox have an impossibly-bad 49 wRC+ against LHP since the start of July; they’re dead last by a mile in pretty much every offensive category. And Basso probably deserves more credit than just being left-handed and facing the White Sox. He tossed 6 scoreless innings in his first MLB start and has now allowed just 2 ERs across 9.1 IP at the highest level. Basso opened the year with good results at Double-A, and while his ERA lagged when promoted to Triple-A, he was pitching in the extremely hitter-friendly PCL. He still posted a solid 26.4% K% with a 7.5% BB%, both of which have been strengths at every level.
Garrett Crochet stumbled last time out against Boston, but he’s still been solid in this limited role. He’s only allowed more than 2 ERs twice since the start of August. Crochet remains capped at 4 IP, so we’ll have to sweat an inning from Chicago’s bullpen, but that’s priced into the line. Oakland has a solid lineup, but it’s top-heavy. If Crochet can be efficient enough to get past Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker twice, Chicago’s bullpen should get the weaker part of the lineup.
Julian Aguiar Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+118 on FanDuel)
Got a plus money pick! Love the value here.
Aguiar has struggled in all areas in his first taste of big-league action. He has an ERA over 5.00 with ERA estimators up near 6.00, an 11:8 K:BB, and a barrel rate (13.5%) nearly twice as high as the league average. Aguiar has a tiny 11.7% K%, with an 8.9% swinging-strike rate and a 23% CSW%. For context, only 11 qualified starters have swinging-strike rates below 9%, and none have a CSW% below 24%.
Minnesota’s been all over the place as a matchup this season. They opened the year as one of the most strikeout-prone lineups, then completely flipped and became a contact-heavy group, and now they’re somewhere in the middle. The Twins rank 14th in K% against RHP over the past 30 days. Tonight’s projected lineup has a 23.7% K% vs. RHP this season, which would rank 12th. It’s a fine matchup, especially if Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner end up at the top of the order. But it’s also a team with plenty of lefty power, facing a pitcher who’s allowed a goofy .326 ISO to lefties in a limited sample.
Aguiar has had more than 2 Ks just once in 5 outings. There are some exploitable bats in this lineup, but not enough to make up for Aguiar’s shortcomings.
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