MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, September 27th)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results And Year In Review
We went 2-for-2 last week, closing the season strong. Garrett Crochet continues to dominate in 4-inning stints. Once again, I am going back to him today. Justin Verlander was hammered by the Angels. It might be over for him.
This will be the final edition of the season. I had a great time writing this piece. There continues to be an edge in betting unders, and it’ll only continue as sports betting continues to grow. More new bettors = more people are betting overs. More value for us!
If you like this article, check out the NFL version! It’s a similar format with a game pick and a prop pick each week. You can also find more of my betting picks at ScoresAndOdds. Thanks for reading!
Season Record
- Game Picks: 17-8-1
- Prop Picks: 14-12
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-150 on BetMGM)
This might be the last time we get to bet the combo of Crochet and Chicago’s terrible offense. The White Sox were shopping Crochet during the season, and it seems like a lock they’ll find a deal in the offseason. It’s kinda sad. These first 5 unders have been a cash machine all season. It’ll be a shame to see them go. Good for Crochet, it will be cool to watch him on a real team.
Crochet has now allowed 2 ERs or less in 5 of his last 6 appearances (excluding the rain-shortened outing when he threw 4 pitches). He has a sparkling 36:2 K:BB in this stretch. You just have to close your eyes in the 5th inning when the White Sox bullpen gets in the mix.
Detroit has hacked together their starting rotation over the past 2 months, throwing all types of arms at opposing offenses. If it’s not Tarik Skubal on the mound, all bets are off. And … it’s worked. Detroit is on the verge of locking up a playoff berth, and their bullpen has been incredible down the stretch. The Tigers’ unit has a league-leading 2.66 ERA since the start of August. Manager AJ Hinch is pressing all the right buttons. Detroit hasn’t listed a starter yet, but I’m confident they’ll effectively piece it together against the worst offense in the league.
Ranger Suarez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130 on DraftKings)
The Nats can’t score and they never walk, but they also don’t strike out. It’s just a bunch of soft contact and fast dudes trying to bunt. Speaking of, the departure of CJ Abrams means everyday playing time for Nasim Nunez, who has the lowest K% on the team vs. LHP. After some early struggles, James Wood has his K% down to 19.5% against lefties. Washington has the 5th-lowest strikeout rate vs. LHP since the start of August, but tonight’s projected lineup is all the way down at 17.5%, which would be the lowest in the league. It’s a brutal matchup right now.
Suarez has dealt with back spasms multiple times this season, which finally resulted in a month-long IL stint. He returned in late August and has just a 20.8% K% across 6 starts. He’s maxed out at 5.1 IP since coming back. With Philadelphia locked into a top 2 seed, there isn’t much reason to push him.
It’s also windy and rainy in DC today. This game might get scrapped altogether. If they do play, the pitching conditions won’t be ideal, especially for a guy with an achy back.
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