MLB Daily Grind Down: April 12th Part 2

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-04-15 06:19:31

Philadelphia at Miami

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
PHI BvP		PHI vs R		MIA BvP		MIA vs L
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• The OU line is set at a low 7.5 and PHI is the road favorite at -115. John Lannan was solid in his first start going 7 IP with 3 ER and 5 K. The 28 year olds K/9 ratio was a dismal 4.68 a year ago in his limited 6 starts. It was only 5.12 the previous year. He draws a 1-8 MIA team that is batting just .217 on the season so he seems a lock to get the win. As a second starter….. Target

• Ricky Nolasco average ERA, K/9, and mediocre 4.44 home ERA makes him unplayable to me most of the time. Until the Marlins start putting runs on the board, he is not a factor no matter who he faces on the mound. Avoid

Batters

• Chase Utley has the best numbers vs. Nolasco, a 3.14 BAA in 35 AB. Jimmy Rollins BvPs are average but he has been swinging the bat extremely well so you have to like him also. “Ryan Howard(player-profile)”:/players/Ryan_Howard-10332’s bats seems to be picking up and he has a righty on the hill. He hits righties very well. Michael Young is batting .375 to start the season.

• Giancario Stanton has a nice .455 BAA vs Lannan with a HR in 11 AB. He is only batting .167 on the season with no HR though. If his price has dropped then he is a good play. Placido Polanco sport good BvPs as well and is hitting .333 on the season. He will get you positive points again today. Maybe not that many but positive.

Tampa Bay at Boston

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
TBR BvP		TBR vs L		BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• The line for this game is another average 8.5. BOS is favored by -120. Felix Doubront gets the ball on an extra day of rest. He had a high ERA of 4.86 a year ago but his K/9 ratio was a very nice 9.34 so he is capable of big outings. He ERA at home was a horrible 5.33 but he draws a TB team that is batting just .227 to start the season. The Rays have been pretty disciplined, though. They have only 50 Ks. The young kid has huge upside if you want to gamble but the lackluster confidence in Vegas and his poor first start make me think…. Avoid

• Alex Cobb was near perfect in his first start. He has a very playable 7.36 K/9 ratio. However, his road ERA was 4.92 a year ago which causes some concern. He held the current Soxs to a .187 BAA and he pitches well in Fenway with 1.80 ERA in 2 starts a year ago. The heavy left-handed line-up scares me but I think he is in play in a GPP. Target

Batters

• Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Elisbury are the only to guys that you can call good plays today. Stephen Drew is 2-3 vs. Cobb and is cheap coming off an injury. He has pop and if he is cheap makes a good GPP gamble.

• In 76 AB, TB has a .289 BAA and a .830 OPS vs. Doubront. The hot Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist to keep producing against the lefty. They could be in for monster days if anyone can produce around them. Desmond Jennings sports a .400 BAA. Matt Joyce and James Loney have positive numbers as well.

Toronto at Kansas City

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
TOR BvP		TOR vs R		KCR BvP		KCR vs L
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• Vegas gives the slight edge to KC at -115 ina game they expect to produce around 8 runs. Luis Mendoza looked real sharp in his debut going 6 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, and 7 K. The Ks were out of line with his k/9 of 5.64 of a year ago so do not expect a similar number today from a TOR team that is batting .477 vs. him in 44 AB. He was a worse pitcher at home last year posting a 4.50 ERA. Vegas does not like him all that much and neither do I Avoid

• Since moving to TOR J.A. Happ has posted a +10 K/9. He had a very solid first outing going 5.1, 0 ER with 6 Ks. His not great home ERA gets even worse on the road and last year he posted a 5.34 ERA away from home. The lefty has held the heavy left-hand hitting KC order to just a .178 BAA but those numbers came at home. He has GPP upside but a plus 5 road ERA is too much risk to me for a pitcher who Vegas thinks is headed for a loss Avoid

Batters

• Much of the KC order is left-handed but I have to think they get to Happ a little at home. I like a hot Alex Gordaon, and the two righties swinging the bat well, Billy Butler and Jeff Francoeur.

• Get some Jays into your LU today because they all have great numbers vs. Mendoza. Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera and J.P. Arencibia are the hot hands on the Jays but I also like the power stroke Edwin Encarnacion who has and .800 BAA vs. Mendoza in 5 AB. Adam Lind has a .375 BAA and .958 OPS vs. him.

NY Mets at Minnesota

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
NYM BvP		NYM vs R		MIN BvP		MIN vs L
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• Vegas has the line of this game set at 8 with NYM the road favorites at -115. There are a lot of near pick’ems today. Jonathon Neise takes the hill for the Mets and looks to continue his string of good outings. His K totals were a little low for his first two starts but he has a 7.52 K/9 ratio for his career so I would not worry too much. He faces a MIN team batting .232 on the season and has a 3.02 road ERA from a year ago. Target

• Vance Worley does not instill confidence in anyone but he has a solid enough k/9 ratio to be a factor. He has had lackluster outings his first two go arounds but he is certainly capable of decent performances. It is hard for me to suggest taking him though against a hot Mets team that is batting .260 on the season when he is struggling. Avoid

Batters

• Try not to get too high on Lucas Duda but he is batting .308 on the season and gets another right-hander today. Daniel Murphy has been swing a hot bat, also, and there is no catcher who has been more productive than John Buck to start the season. The Mets as a team are batting .391 vs. Worley in 87 AB. This one could get ugly.

• The one brightspot in this matchup is Josh Willingham who is 2-5 vs. Niese with a HR and gets the righty/lefty matchup today. I do not like the numbers behind any other of the MIN hitters. Plus their bats look like thay are going cold.

Milwaukee at St. Louis

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
MIL BvP		MIL vs R		STL BvP		STL vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• Vegas has the OU of this game set at 8.5 with STL favored at -130. The like the young right-hander Shelby Miller to get the win. He only had 4 Ks in his first outing but the 22 year old had a 11.1 K/9 in the minors. He is facing a pretty patient Brewers team, batting, .277, that has only fanned 66 times. Control was an issue for Miller in his first start. Vegas thinks he will get the win and he has upside so Target

• Kyle Lohse had a very Kyle Lohse like start last time. The 34 year old does not get much love around the league but he has posted low season ERAs for the last two years. His K/9 ratio leaves a little to be desired but is not unplayable. He posted a sick 2.33 year ago in this park where he used to call home. Target

Batters

• Kyle Lohse has to navigate his way around two hitters who have some ridiculous BvPs vs. him if he wants to get the win. Carlos Beltran is 22-39 with 4 HR vs. him. What!!! If that is not what the doctor order to raise a .214 batting average, I do not know what is. Matt Holliday is also 5-9 vs. him. Do not forget about the left-handed bat Matt Carpenter who is .400 on the season.

• Ryan Braun is batting .500 with a 1.442 OPS. He hammers pitchers mistakes. I like him today. The left-handed lead-off hitter Norichika Aoki also looks in a good spot today. He is batting .389 on the season and has only 2 Ks in 24 AB. The young SS Jean Segura is batting .458. Could be a nice cheap option if Miller starts losing his control.

Continue Reading Part Three of Today’s MLB Grind Down Article Here