MLB Daily Grind Down April 14th

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-04-14 16:30:28

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.

While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Yesterday, we saw some nice pitching and points from your batters were hard to come by. Today, things get a little softer which opens up the gate for many good plays and higher scores. Lance Berkman and his 1.136 OPS garner my nod for the play of the day today. His Rangers face a Seattle rookie who got batted around on by the Astros. On paper, a Rangers stack looks like a real nice option today.

On another note, this is how I chose to remember Lance. This was taken back in his Fat Elvis days before he coined himself the alias, The Big Puma.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
CHW BvP		CHW vs R		CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• The OU line for this game is 8 and CHW is favored at -135. Jake Peavy gave up 3 HRs in his last start in WAS but was very solid the start before that game. He was a 3.61 away pitcher last year. He had a 2.40 ERA in two starts at Progressive Field. His day ERA was 3.68 and he faces a CLE team batting .241 on the season and only .175 vs. him. Look for a Padres’ style flashback today. Target

• Even when pitching well, Brett Myers does not get the kind of K/9 that you need. At best, he is a matchup play. This is not a good matchup and he has been hit hard in his first two outings. Avoid

Batters

• The way Myers has thrown in his first two starts, everyone is in play. Alex Rios and Alexi Ramirez have been the Soxs hottest hitters. Do not forget about Conor Gillaspie. He is producing well and is still cheap.

• The numbers do not suggest you take anyone but if you want to gamble then I think Swisher is due. He has more power batting left. Peavy is a righty.

Philadelphia at Miami

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
PHI BvP		PHI vs R		MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• The OU line for this game is also 8 with PHI favored at -130. Roy Halladay has been awful in his first two starts. He looks like a pitcher on the decline. His road ERA was 4.42 a year ago and his day game ERA was 4.97. He faces a MIA team batting .202 on the season and .282 vs. him but will most likely be without their best hitter, Giancario Stanton. The numbers look bad for Roy but he does have 12 Ks in 2 starts so the upside is still there. Target

• A move to the NL has done Kevin Slowey some good. His ERA is 2.19 after his first two starts. His K/9 ratio is not what you would like but he could be in line for the win today if Halladay struggles again. Target

Batters

• After a hot start, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins are cooling off. Michael Young remains hot and Ryan Howard is picking it up. I like Howard and Utley vs. the righty today.

• Greg Dobbs is 8-18 vs. Roy with a HR. Placido Polanco has a .357 BAA and Donovan Solano is 3-8 vs. him. If for some reason Stanton play, he has a .318 BAA with 2 HRs vs. Halladay.

Atlanta at Washington

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
ATL BvP		ATL vs L		WSN BvP		WSN vs L
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• The OU for this game is 7.5 and WAS is favored at -140. Gio Gonzalez gets the edge in a duel between two hot pitchers. He takes to the mound with his 2.38 home ERA and 3.72 day game ERA vs. an ATL team batting .252 on the season and only .197 vs. him. I like the lefty. Target

• Paul Maholm was a 4.26 pitcher on the road last year but had a 2.71 ERA in day games. He has yet to surrender a run on the season but I think that ends today. He goes against a Nationals team batting .254 on the season and .310 vs. him. He is off to a good start but Avoid

Batters

• Jason Werth has a .357 BAA vs. Maholm in 28 AB. Ian Desmond is also 4-10 vs. him with a HR. Bryce Harper has been hot and draws a lefty. “Ryan Zimmerman(player-profile)”:/players/Ryan_Zimmerman-10429’s price has dropped in places. He still brings a big bat. Could get his first HR today.

• The only player I would consider taking today is Justin Upton because he has been producing at an insane clip.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
CIN BvP		CIN vs R		PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• Vegas has the OU set at 7.5 with CIN favored at -155. That is a huge bill of confidence in Matt Latos. He faces a rookie on the mound. After 2 starts, his ERA is 2.84. He was a 3.93 pitcher on the road last year and his day game ERA was 2.76. He faces a struggling PIT team batting .180 on the season and .180 vs. him. Target

• Phil Irwin will be making his major league debut today. He posted a sub 3 ERA in the minors with a K/9 in the 8s. The talent is there if you want to gamble on upside. The line is too big for me. Avoid

Batters

• The heart of the order has been real good for CIN. They are facing a rookie right-hander. Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Shin-Soo Choo look real nice today. I like all the Reds, though.

• Garrett Jones has pushed his average over .300 with a nice week of games. Latos gives up his fair share of HR. Pedro Alvarez led the league in day game HRs last year. I think Andrew McCuthchen’s price has dropped to the point where you can consider taking him purely as an upside play.

Tampa Bay at Boston

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
TBR BvP		TBR vs R		BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• BOS gets the edge in this one at -130 in a game that is projected 8.5 runs. Clay Buchholz looks to build upon his 0.64 ERA. His home ERA was 4.66 a year ago and his day game ERA was 5.72. He squares off vs. a TB team that is batting .221 on the season and only .223 vs. him. He has pitched above himself. His K/9 is only in the 6s and the day game ERA is too high. Avoid

• Alex Cobb looks like another great find by the TB farm system. The 25 year old is coming into his own. His road ERA of 4.92 will get some help from his day game ERA of 3.16 from a year ago. The righty has yet to surrender a run but only has 6 Ks in his two starts. He faces a BOS team batting .259 on the season and only .184 vs. him. The lack of Ks and the road ERA make me think Avoid

Batters

• There is not much BvP data but Cobb has not been as successful vs. BOS as that BAA might suggest. Stephen Drew is 2-3 vs. him. Mike Napoli is 1-2. I like a hot Shane Victorino to get involved in this game.

• Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist have been TB best hitters. Their BvPs are not good but I think TB gets to Clay so I like them as a play. Jose Molina is 7-17 vs. Clay and Matt Joyce is 6-18. I would not be opposed to playing the lefty Desmond Jennings also.

Continue Reading Part Two of Today’s Day Games MLB Grind Down Article Here