MLB Daily Grind Down April 22nd

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-04-22 21:13:36

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.

While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Monday is a light day for baseball but this Monday we got treated with a 13 game schedule all of which are night games. That is great news for daily fantasy because it eliminates some of the overlay. Speaking of overlay, King Felix gets my nod as the player of the day. He brings his 1500 career Ks into HOU vs. a team striking out at a record setting pace. It is not often that you can say that a player has chance to get you 20 Ks in a game but he could do it tonight.

Oakland at Boston

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
OAK BvP		OAK vs L		BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 8.5

• Favored BOS -125

Pitchers

• Home Felix Doubront first two outings were decent for his price. He remains a player whose K/9 ratio gives him huge upside. He was touched up in the two starts though and faces an OAK team batting .306 versus left-handers and .284 on the road. He has GPP winning upside if he can pull it together on a night and Vegas likes him today. In Play

• Away A.J. Griffin ‘s ERA did not suffer on the road last year unlike most A’s players. His K/9 is a little on the low side but he has held this BOS team to a .179 BAA vs. him in 28 AB. He is pitching very well right now and faces a BOS team batting .250 over the last 7 days and .272 vs. right-handers. He is 9-1 to start his young career. The numbers do not lie. In Play

Batters

• Home David Ortiz has a HR in 2 AB off of Griffin. There will be some runs scored by BOS. I like Jacoby Elisbury up top facing the right hander. Shane Victorino and Daniel Nava have been swinging a nice stick also

• Away The sample size is way too small but Coco Crisp and John Jaso have good numbers versus him. Jed Lowrie has been a beast this year and catches a left-hander. He is batting .375 vs. left-handed pitching

St. Louis at Washington

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
STL BvP		STL vs R		WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 7.5

• Favored STL -107

Pitchers

• Home Dan Haren is struggling right now. He is giving up way too many flyballs and not missing enough bats. He takes the hill against a STL team that is batting only .206 over the last 7 days and .234 on the road. He was a worse pitcher at home last year than on the road and he has yet to show me anything for me to have faith in him. He is facing a developing player at home and he is the underdog. Avoid

• Away Shelby Miller has looked impressive in his first 3 starts. He has 18 Ks in 18.1 IP and has only given up 4 ER. He runs into a WAS team that is batting .231 over the last 7 and .242 versus right-handers. He is the slight favorite on the road. In Play

Batters

• Home Bryce Harper is playing at a MVP level. I might be tempted to sprinkle in Denard Span, Jason Werth or Ian Desmond but the low OU is enough to scare me off of most of the Nats today.

• Away Just when I gave up on Carlos Beltran, he turned it on. He gets another set of nice BvPs today. Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina ’s numbers are encouraging also. If Matt Adams plays put him in your LU. He is batting over .500 on the season. I would avoid both Matt Carpenter and Jon Jay who are slumping.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
PIT BvP		PIT vs R		PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 8

• Favored PIT -115

Pitchers

• Home Jonathan Pettibone is a big guy with big stuff. He will make his major league debut tonight. He has not pitched well to start off the year in the minors which is alarming. He draws a PIT team batting .307 over the last 7 days but only .157 on the road. They are hitting righties at a much better clip than lefties. With all of the call-ups,he has GPP upside because his price will be low. I feel it is best to avoid this one, though. In Play

• Away A.J. Burnett has continue the resurgence of his career from last year into the early part of this one. He has been very good in his first 4 starts posting 35 Ks in 24 IP. He faces off a PHI team batting .264 versus right-handers and .280 at home. He was just a 4.02 pitcher on the road last year but the PHI have 148 Ks on the year so that should offset a few of the runs. In Play

Batters

• Home Chase Utley and Ryan Howards BvPs today look very nice. Both gain the boost today from the lefty/righty split. It is also hard to ignore what Michael Young is doing. He is batting .333 on the season and seems to get positive FP every single day.

• Away Garrett Jones remains the Pirates most productive player. He draws another righty today. Neil Walker has been heating it up lately also. Andrew McCutchen crushes mistakes. With a rookie pitcher on the mound, you have to think everyone is in play.

Toronto at Baltimore

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
TOR BvP		TOR vs R		BAL BvP		BAL vs L
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 8.5

• Favored BAL -115

Pitchers

• Home Chris Tillman as not looked like the pitcher he was last year. The young arm seems to have taken a step back. In his last start he only had 3 ground ball outs. That is living dangerously. He squares off against a TOR team that is batting in the .230s of all their splits. At least, they are consistent. TOR has a 152 Ks on the season and Vegas has him favored to get the win. In Play

• Away J.A. Happ first start was stellar. His last two have been pretty bad. He posted a plus 5 ERA on the road a year ago and runs into a BAL team batting .286 at home and .277 versus left-handers. The also have a very solid .350 BAA as a team versus him. Avoid

Batters

• Home Adam Jones is on fire and playable simply because of that. His BvPs are positive today. Chris Davis has hit lefties at a .342 clip so feel free to keep using him today. Matt Wieters is batting .389 versus left-handed pitching.

• Away Jose Bautista and Melky Cabrera have some nice BvPs today. Bautista has 2 HR in only 9 AB. Tillman is letting to many hitters lift the ball so Lawrie, Lind, Rasmus, and Encarnacion are all in play. Do not forget about the super cheap Munenori Kawasaki. He is producing if you need an off at SS.

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
NYY BvP		NYY vs L		TBR BvP		TBR vs L
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 7

• Favored TAM -115

Pitchers

• Home Matt Moore has been every bit of the ace in his first 3 starts. In 18 IP of work, he has 20 Ks and 2 ER. Both of those came in his last start at BAL. He was a 3.55 pitcher at home a year ago and gets the tasty matchup versus a NYY team that is batting only .210 versus left-handed pitching with more Ks than hits. Target

• Away C.C. Sabathia was not good on the road last year. His road ERA was a 4.02. He catches a TAM team that has the same problem. Their home batting average is .261 compared to .196 on the road. They are also batting much better versus left-handers than right-handers. Avoid

Batters

• Home Evan Longoria has owned C.C Sabathia in the past. he is 14-39 with 5 HRs. The OU is low and most of TAM is struggling so I would not look to far outside of him and Ben Zobrist.

• Away Brennan Boesch should get the start today and his BvPs versus Moore are nice if you need a cheap outfielder to round out your roster. Robinson Cano and Ichiro Suzuki have positive BvPs also but neither have hit left-handers well this year.

Continue Reading Part Two of Today’s Day Games MLB Grind Down Article Here