MLB Daily Grind Down: April 6th Night Games

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-04-06 22:26:17

Minnesota at Baltimore

MIN at BAL

• Vegas has the OU line at 9 and BAL favored to win at -139. Neither pitcher strikes out enough guys to be a factor in a game that is likely to end 5-4. There are tastier matchups to be had.

• MIN has hit .333 vs. Tillman in limited at bats. I am going to continue to recommend Justin Morneau who I think is undervalued and hits right-handed pitching very well. Joe Mauer typically hits righties well also.

• BAL has been on fire as team is batting .322 with 6 HRs. There is no reason to believe the train will stop now. Chris Davis is playing at MVP levels. Flaherty is getting the start at 2nd if you are looking for value.

Kansas City at Philadelphia

• Vegas has the OU at 8.5 and the money line as basically a pick’em. Since you cannot reasonably expect either team to win. I would not take either pitcher since neither guy gets the number of Ks you need.

• Jeff Francoeur has great numbers versus Lannan with a .520 BAA. I also like Butler in this one because he normally hits lefties really well. He batted .331 vs left-handed pitching last year. I would be wary of Hosmer and Girdin even though they have been hot just because left-handers tend to slow them down.

• Outside of Chase Utley, the Phillies do not bring much to the table on offense.

Cleveland at Tampa Bay

• Vegas has the OU line of this game at 8 with Tampa Bay favored at -160. Cobb had a nice spring and draws a nice matchup vs. Cleveland team that has started of the season slow batting only .222. The current Indians are a combined 10 for 43 vs. him. He gets enough Ks so I like him today on any site. Trevor Bauer is another flame throwing rookie with upside. He can get you Ks if you want to gamble but I do not trust him vs. this order that hits right-handed pitching very well.

• After a hot start the Rays have cooled down a bit. Against a rookie that has been knocked around before, I think everyone is in play. I like all the lefties in this one plus Longoria

• If you want to take some Indians then Brantley and Bourn have been seeing the ball well as has Carlos Santana and Kipins sports a .400 batting average vs. the man on the hill today.

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta

• Vegas has the OU at 8 with ATL heavily favored at -160 which means to me that they expect very little from the Cubs who are batting just .133 to start the season. Julio Teheran has promise and his mid 90s fastball will get strikeouts which makes him an upside gamble for the price. Although a bit more expensive, Carlos Villanueva offers the same kind of upside. He posted 8.76 K/9 rate last year. He might make a good play if you think the cubs can pounce on the prospect for him.

• Freddie Freeman and Justin Upton have been hot so they are in play. I also like Heyward versus the righty. B.J. Upton is hitless to start the season.

• It is hard to recommend anyone from a team that is batting .133. The rookie could struggle in his first start. He did not pitched well in the spring and gives up his share of HR. Some of the Cubs should be good play. The points have to come from somewhere.

Arizona at Milwaukee

• Vegas has the OU line for this game at 8.5 and they give the slight edge to MIL at -125. Patrick Corbin put together a solid spring and could post some pretty high K totals. If you can catch him on the bottom end of that ERA then he will make for a good value play. He has GPP winning upside. Mike Fiers is another high K guy who could win you a GPP as well. His price will be higher but he is the safer of the two bets.

• Prado, Parra and Goldschmidt are all swinging the bat well. There should be a few runs to be had. However, there are no splits to suggest that any of them are a great play.

• The top of the Brewers order has been even hotter. Watch out for Ryan Braun who sit last night due to a stiff neck. He might not go again today. Khris Davis got the start in his place.

Oakland at Houston

• Vegas has the line of this game at 8 with OAK favored at -129. Bartello Colon had his day as a pitcher but that day was a long time ago. He should get a bump in value playing the Astros but do not expect him to morph into Justin Verlander. Bud Norris pitched well in his first start and is a much better pitcher at home than he is on the road. He could be a sneaky play if the price is right.

• Bud Norris best pitch is a fastball and it is only slightly above average. Josh Reddick is a good fastball hitter and I think he gets on track today. Mike Morse has been hot for OAK if you like to ride streaks.

• Like I said with the Cubs, the Astros will score some runs today. They have to come from somewhere if you want to gamble.

San Diego at Colorado

• The OU line for this game is 11.5. You do not want to take any pitcher in a game that is slated for 11 runs.

• Everth Cabrera has been San Diego only reliable hitter. He is batting over .300 with a couple of steals. Cameron Maybin is 2-4 vs. Garland. I expect some runs from San Diego. They will be priced low.

• Keep riding COL while they stay hot. They are batting .327 with 10 HR. Carlos Gonzales is always a good play vs. right-handers.

Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers

• This game has the lowest OU line out all the games at 6. Vegas list the Dodgers as the heavy favorites at -210. Both pitchers threw the ball well in their opener. If A.J. Burnett can continue to pile up the strikeouts, he will stay fantasy relevant. I just cannot recommend that you take him today against a pitcher who went 9 innings with 7 Ks and 0 ER. Kershaw home ERA is 2.05 and his K/9 ratio is 9. Pay for him

• Clint Barmes actually has decent splits vs. Kershaw. He is batting .280 with a HR. Andrew McCutchen has hit well also to a tune of a .357 average as has Gaby Sanchez with a .429 average. It is risky to take anyone going against a pitcher of his caliber.

• Dodger are hitting poorly lately. If you want to take someone Carl Crawford has nice splits vs. Burnett as does Adam Either if he gets the start.