MLB Daily Grind Down: July 1st, 2013

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-07-01 18:00:12

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

It is another lackluster Monday. We have 6 games for tonights GPPs. That is more than enough to have a decent run at things. Here is tonight’s Daily Grind Down to get you ready or as ready as you can be on a day like today.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – TOR -135

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home R.A. Dickey had a real nice start last time out. He is putting together a nice little June. His record at home is not great so far this year but he has been a good day game pitcher throughout his career and DET is not as tough on the road as they are at home. Still, they own a .371 BAA versus him and Dickey could implode at anytime. DET is batting .257 on the road, .279 versus right-handers, and .249 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

• Away This will be Jose Alvarez ‘s first start on the road. Not that it matters that much for a AAA call-up. I am not sold on the young player even though he has looked good in his first 3 starts. For me, he is only worth a look if his salary is still low. TOR is batting .261 at home, .246 versus left-handers, .243 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

Batter Grind Down

• Home Jose Bauitsta and Edwin Ancarnacion have been the jays 2 hottest players. Jose Reyes has a .400 batting average versus left-handers. RG Stack Rating 5

• Away Miguel Cabrera continues his torrid season with 38.5 fp over the last 7 days. He is 5-15 with 1 HR versus Dickey. Omar Infante is 13-28 with 2 HRs and Tori Hunter is 6-12 versus him as well. RG Stack Rating 7

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Milwaukee vs. Washington

7:05 PM	Milwaukee – ROAD					Washington – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.260	0.723	19.40%	0.56		0.235	0.670	21.80%	0.50
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.256	0.718	18.60%	0.43		0.241	0.688	21.90%	0.41
SP STATS	Gallardo – RHP					Zimmermann – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.40	4.20	7.33	9.19		0.92	2.28	6.30	13.08
LAST 14 DAYS	1.73	2.45	9.00	9.50		0.80	1.20	7.80	17.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIL vs R		MIL BvP			WSN vs R		WSN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7

• Favored Team – WAS -185

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Jordan Zimmermann has a 1.06 ERA at home. He has been solid on the year and draws a struggling MIL team. The only knock on him is his K totals but he goes deep into games so he will get you some. He is averaging 5 Ks a start, which is not great but I will not hurt you either. MIL is batting .246 on the road, .253 versus right-handers, and .237 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 8

• Away Zimmermann is the favorite toady with good reason but I like Yovani Gallardo a little more. He has a fantastic road ERA at 3.33 and has only given up 3 ER in his last 4 starts and those came with the wind blowing out in CHC. WAS is batting .259 at home, .243 versus right-handers, and .278 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home Adam LaRoche is 8-24 with 2 HRs versus Gallardo. He has been steadily producing and is cheap after an early season slump. Ian Desmond and Ryan Zimmerman are the other two players who are swinging nice bats right now.RG Stack Rating 4

• Away Aramis Ramirez has the best numbers versus Zimmerman f you want to play the fade. He is 6-16 with 1 HR versus him. RG Stack Rating 1

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Arizona vs. NY Mets

7:10 PM	Arizona – ROAD					NY Mets – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.259	0.714	18.50%	0.55		0.230	0.667	22.60%	0.52
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.263	0.729	19.20%	0.46		0.233	0.672	22.60%	0.40
SP STATS	Miley – LHP					Marcum – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.43	4.55	6.54	8.25		1.27	5.08	7.38	7.34
LAST 14 DAYS	1.52	3.86	7.23	7.60		1.31	3.55	5.90	9.60
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	ARI vs R		ARI BvP			NYM vs L		NYM BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – ARI -108

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Shaun Marcum is indicative of all NYM. You think that they should be better than they are. Occasionally they produce and then let you down again. I had a great outing last time out and ARI is not as good on the road as they are at home. ARI is batting .262 on the road, .262 versus right-handers and .243 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

• Away Wade Miley is a lesser version of Jordan Zimmermann. He has pitched for a quality start in 4 of his last 5 starts and has been a great pitcher on the road with a 3.82 ERA. NYM is batting .212 at home, .228 versus right-handers, and .237 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 6

Batter Grind Down

• Home The NYM offer value but I am sick of taking any of them outside of David Wright when he has a good matchup RG Stack Rating 1

• Away Jason Kubel has the best numbers versus Marcum. Paul Goldschmidt is never a bad play if you can afford them. RG Stack Rating 4

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San Diego vs. Miami

7:10 PM	San Diego – ROAD					Miami – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.249	0.702	20.80%	0.57		0.233	0.625	18.80%	0.43
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.246	0.691	21.20%	0.41		0.236	0.622	17.80%	0.31
SP STATS	Marquis – RHP					Fernandez – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.44	3.99	5.92	9.39		1.13	2.98	8.98	10.41
LAST 14 DAYS	1.88	6.97	8.02	5.55		0.99	2.19	5.21	8.05
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SDP vs R		SDP BvP			MIA vs R		MIA BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – MIA -133

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Jose Fernandez has been great on the year. MIA has been playing better lately and he is actually the favorite today. His 1.76 home ERA is well above average. SDG is batting .257 at home, .246 versus right-handers, and .246 over the last 7 days RG Start-Ability 7

• Away After that great start, Jason Marquis ‘s ERA is steadily going back to his career average. He has been better on the road and MIA offense has been better lately but they have disappeared at times. MIA is batting .230 at home, .236 versus right-handers, and .266 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

Batter Grind Down

• Home Juan Pierre has great career numbers versu Marquis. Logan Morrison is batting over .300 in the past 7 days. Most of MIA offers value and can offer space for your cap. RG Stack Rating

• Away SDG has had very little success recently. They are not a very potent offense to begin with. RG Stack Rating 3

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San Francisco vs. Cincinnati

7:10 PM	San Francisco – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.268	0.714	16.70%	0.55		0.248	0.722	19.90%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.264	0.713	16.70%	0.42		0.249	0.729	19.50%	0.46
SP STATS	Kickham – LHP					Arroyo – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	2.22	10.57	10.00	3.10		1.22	3.61	4.92	8.95
LAST 14 DAYS	1.57	8.44	8.82	5.10		1.73	6.55	3.27	3.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SFG vs R		SFG BvP			CIN vs L		CIN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – CIN -158

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Bronson Arroyo has been really good on the year especially at home. I keep waiting for his luck to run out. I have a hard time believing that at his age he made a drastic jump in ability. I keep pointing to his WHIP that is on par with his career average. To me, that means that his ERA should fall more in line with his career average as well. He is the favorite today and there are not that many options to work with. SFO is batting .263 on the road, .263 versus right-handers, and .226 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away Mike Kickham has been destroyed in his first 2 outings. A start in CIN is not going to be any better for him. He got his fair share of Ks in those starts so there is always GPP upside if you think you can catch lightning in a bottle. RG Start-Ability 2

Batter Grind Down

• Home Kickham is a lefty but both Bruce and Votto hit lefties well and Kickham is actually struggling to get lefties out so far. Brandon Phillips and Todd Frazier are probably your best bets but everyone is playable. RG Stack Rating 7

• Away Hunter Pence is 12-35 with 2 HRs versus Arroyo, Marco Scutaro, Buster Posey, and Pablo Sandoval have positive BvPs as well. Posey has been on fire with 36.25 fp over the past week. RG Stack Rating 5

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Tampa Bay vs. Houston

8:10 PM	Tampa Bay – ROAD					Houston – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.257	0.746	18.30%	0.63		0.238	0.679	25.10%	0.53
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.289	0.799	18.30%	0.54		0.268	0.760	25.40%	0.49
SP STATS	Moore – LHP					Keuchel – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.40	3.95	8.67	10.70		1.47	4.34	7.04	7.01
LAST 14 DAYS	1.41	2.92	11.16	15.55		1.27	4.20	11.40	10.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TBR vs L		TBR BvP			HOU vs L		HOU BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – TAM -160

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Dallas Keuchel has been quietly pitching well for the Astros but it looks like that hot streak is coming to an end. Moreover, HOU bats have gone quiet so it is doubtful he will get the win anyway. TAM is batting .249 on the road, .289 versus right-handers, and .248 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 3

• Away Matt Moore got back on track in his last start versus TOR with 11 Ks. He will likely get 8 or 9 more today versus HOU. He is automatic play today with overlay being the only concern. HOU is batting .232 at home, .264 versus left-handers and .208 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 9

Batter Grind Down

• Home The Astros hit left-handers well if you want to gamble but they are struggling to much for me to consider them RG Stack Rating 1

• Away Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings, Ryan Roberts and Will Myers are all batting over .300 versus left-handers. Everyone from TAM is playable today. RG Stack Rating 6

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NY Yankees vs. Minnesota

8:10 PM	NY Yankees – ROAD					Minnesota – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.240	0.682	20.10%	0.53		0.248	0.709	20.40%	0.56
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.238	0.649	20.30%	0.39		0.262	0.710	21.00%	0.42
SP STATS	Pettitte – LHP					Diamond – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.32	4.22	7.11	9.77		1.51	5.40	4.25	6.16
LAST 14 DAYS	1.48	5.68	8.85	8.10		1.58	6.10	5.35	6.55
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYY vs L		NYY BvP			MIN vs L		MIN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8

• Favored Team – NYY -110

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Scott Diamond seems to get worse and worse after every start. The left-hander catches an equally struggling team in NYY. His home ERA is 6.21 and he has given up 19 ER in his last 4 starts. NYY is batting .236 on the road, .238 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 2

• Away Andy Pettitte has been great on the road this year with a 2.81 ERA. He is producing for the pinstripes but does not throw too deep into games at this point in his career. He draws a MIN team that is just starting to produce. MIN is batting .266 at home, .264 versus left-handers, and .261 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

Batter Grind Down

• Home Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Josh Willingham all have positive BvPs versus Pettitte. Trevor Plouff and Brian Dozier are my picks from this game. If Clete Thomas bats leadoff again he could be worth a look as well but I am not sure that he plays today given the lefty/lefty matchup. RG Stack Rating 3

• Away The way Diamond has been pitching consider everyone playable. Ichiro Suzuki has been hot lately and has a .358 betting average versus left-handers on the year. RG Stack Rating 5

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