MLB Daily Grind Down May 17th Part 2
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time. (any fp listed uses Fanduel’s scoring system)
Tonight is another day filled with huge Qualifiers and big Tournaments. I have to weasel Fridays off next year because they are turning out to be the best day in daily fantasy for the baseball season. I just missed on Tuesday’s qualifier but there are plenty left for one of us to win. Here is today’s Grind Down to get your research started in the right direction.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
| Tampa Bay | Baltimore | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camden Yards | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Jeremy Hellickson – (1-2), 5.25 ERA, 7.88 K/9, 1.27 WHIP | Jason Hammel – (5-1), 4.93 ERA, 6.37 K/9, 1.47 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (46-204 H/AB) 0.225 BA-A, 15.2 K%, 0.672 OPS-A | PvB | (26-117 H/AB) 0.222 BA-A, 17.09 K%, 0.709 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-2), 5.48 ERA, 5 HRA, 9 K/9, 1.348 WHIP | HOME | (0-1), 5.68 ERA, 1 HRA, 5.7 K/9, 1.342 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
TBR BvP  | TBR vs R | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9
- Favored BAL -113
Pitchers
- Home Jason Hammel plus 4 ERA and low K/9 make him a matchup play. This is not a good matchup. TAM is batting .242 on the road, .244 versus right-handers, and .264 over the last 7 days. Avoid
- Away Jeremy Hellickson ERA is plus 5 but his WHIP is a nice 1.22, which makes me think that a some point he will have a very nice outing. I do not think a start in BAL versus this very potent offense is going to produce that nice outing, though. BAL is batting .250 at home, .274 versus right-handers, and .300 over the last 7 days. Avoid
Batters
- Home Chris Davis is 8-18 versus Hellickson with 1 HR. Adam Jones is 10-31 with 3 HRs and Nick Markakis is 7-28 with 2 HRs. All 3 are batting over .300 versus right-handers. Manny Machado has a .368 average versus right-handers also and has been hot producing 23.25 fp.
- Away James Loney is 9-31 versus Hammel with 3 HRs and has been the hottest TAM producing 20 fp over the last 7 days. He is also batting .352 versus right-handers. Evan Longoria is batting .308 versus right handers but you do not need me to tell you that Evan Longoria is a good play.
Arizona at Miami
| Arizona | Miami | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins Park | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Trevor Cahill – (2-4), 2.7 ERA, 7.02 K/9, 1.18 WHIP | Kevin Slowey – (1-3), 2.55 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 1.14 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (26-80 H/AB) 0.325 BA-A, 16.25 K%, 0.825 OPS-A | PvB | (11-36 H/AB) 0.306 BA-A, 8.33 K%, 0.806 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-1), 3.21 ERA, 2 HRA, 3.2 K/9, 1.286 WHIP | HOME | (0-1), 2.39 ERA, 2 HRA, 7.2 K/9, 0.987 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| ARI BvP | ARI vs R | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored ARI -155
Pitchers
- Home Kevin Slowey illustrates how much harder it is to pitch in the AL than the NL. This man was battered around in his days with MIN but is producing big in MIA with a 2.55 ERA on the year. He still plays for MIA and is going against a well hitting team. He probably will not get the win so he is too big of a risk to consider but I am a fan of what he has accomplished. ARI is batting .252 on the road, .262 versus right-handers, and .251 over the last 7 days. Avoid
- Away Trevor Cahill ‘s ERA was almost 2 full points lower on the road last year. He is pitching great no matter where he is throwing so far this year with a 2.70 season ERA. The fact that he is playing a poor MIA team only sweetens the deal. MIA is batting .215 at home, .225 versus right-handers, and .215 over the last 7 days. Target
Batters
- Home Derek Dietrich and Marcell Ozuna are guys I have been playing recently as offs because they have been producing and offer value. MIA offense is bad but there is value up and down their roster if you need to free up some cap.
- Away Didi Gregorius has a .409 batting average versus right-handers, Eric Chavez has been hot producing 32 fp over the last week and has a .329 average versus right-handers as well. Paul Goldschmidt is fantasy relevant no matter what the matchup. Miquel Montero might be a nice play also versus the right-hander. He has not done much this year which means his salary is low and he has power.
LA Dodgers at Atlanta
| LA Dodgers | Atlanta | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner Field | 7:30 PM | ||||||
| Hyun-Jin Ryu – (4-2), 3.4 ERA, 9.16 K/9, 1.21 WHIP | Paul Maholm – (4-4), 3.94 ERA, 7.69 K/9, 1.21 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | PvB | (30-125 H/AB) 0.24 BA-A, 15.2 K%, 0.744 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-1), 4.68 ERA, 2 HRA, 9 K/9, 1.32 WHIP | HOME | (1-1), 1.32 ERA, 1 HRA, 6.6 K/9, 0.878 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| LAD BvP | LAD vs L | ATL BvP | ATL vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored ATL -133
Pitchers
- Home Paul Maholm ERA at home this year is a very nice 1.32. His ERA a year ago was a full point lower at home as well. He gets enough Ks to consider in a single pitcher format. He struggled as of late but was off to a very good start to the season. He will end up in more than one of my rosters tonight. LAD is batting .268 on the road, .303 versus left-handers, and .298 over the last 7 days. The splits are scary but I like his upside and value. In Play
- Away After throwing 12 Ks in 6 IP, Hyun-Jin Ryu has just 5 Ks in 12.2 IP in his last 2 starts. I think both numbers are distorted and he is probably more of a 5-7 K a start guy on average. He has not pitched well this year on the road with 4.68 ERA. ATL is batting .245 at home, .247 versus left-handers, and .223 over the last 7 days. He is in play but I am avoiding him. until he proves that he can pitch better on the road In Play
Batters
- Home Chris Johnson has a .378 average versus left-handed pitching. Evan Gattis and Justin Upton also hit them at a plus .300 clip. Upton has been hot again producing 21 fp over the last 7 days.
- Away LAD best hitter versus left-handed pitching is Adrian Gonzalez with a .388 average. He is also batting .340 on the road and .349 on the year. LAD has a .303 average versus left-handers so there are positive splits to be had up and down the LU. Maholm is not a lock to produce.
Detroit at Texas
| Detroit | Texas | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers Ballpark | 8:05 PM | ||||||
| Rick Porcello – (1-2), 6.68 ERA, 5.89 K/9, 1.36 WHIP | Nick Tepesch – (3-3), 4.03 ERA, 7.11 K/9, 1.26 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (33-94 H/AB) 0.351 BA-A, 13.83 K%, 0.926 OPS-A | PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-2), 9 ERA, 5 HRA, 5.4 K/9, 1.533 WHIP | HOME | (1-1), 3.45 ERA, 2 HRA, 6.9 K/9, 1.213 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| DET BvP | DET vs R | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 10.5
- Favored
Pitchers
- Home Do not think that the wheels are back on the Nick Tepesch Band Wagon after his last outing. Sure, he looked great but it was in HOU. I think he is more likely to give up 10 ER today against DET than he is to hold them scoreless. DET is batting .259 on the road, .284 versus right-handers, and .279 over the last 7 days with 12 HRs. Avoid
- Away As bad as Rick Porcello has been pitching, Vegas could have set the OU of this game at 13.5 and got some takers for the over. He has looked better lately but his 9.00 road ERA and 21 Ks in 7 starts are not numbers that I feel confident in today. TEX is batting .280 at home, .267 versus right-handers, and .284 over the last 7 days. They have a .351 BAA vs. Porcello. Avoid
Batters
- Home Gentleman start your TEX stacks! Adrian Beltre and Mitch Moreland have both produced over 30 fp in the last 7 days. Ian Kinsler is 6-10 off of Porcello.
- Away Gentleman start your DET stacks! I say this everyday so I guess just keep them running.
Boston at Minnesota
| Boston | Minnesota | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Field | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| Clay Buchholz – (6-0), 1.69 ERA, 9.28 K/9, 1.04 WHIP | Vance Worley – (1-4), 7.15 ERA, 4.85 K/9, 1.95 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (24-76 H/AB) 0.316 BA-A, 19.74 K%, 0.829 OPS-A | PvB | (10-33 H/AB) 0.303 BA-A, 21.21 K%, 0.848 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (2-0), 0.64 ERA, 1 HRA, 7.7 K/9, 0.929 WHIP | HOME | (0-3), 9 ERA, 0 HRA, 5.3 K/9, 2.167 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| BOS BvP | BOS vs R | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored BOS -150
Pitchers
- Home Vance Worley is probably the worst pitcher going today. Take him if you really love to gamble. BOS is batting .254 on the road, .277 versus right-handers, and .228 over the last 7 days. They own a .303 BAA versus him. Avoid
- Away Clay Buchholz has been dominant on the year with a 1.69 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. MIN has hit him hard in the past, though. They have a .316 BAA vs. him. Even if he gets roughed up a little, he should get the win and enough Ks to offset the damage. MIN is batting .263 at home, .244 versus right-handers, and .261 over the last 7 days. Target
Batters
- Home Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau both gain the splits in their favor today and have positive BvPs versus Buchholz. Oswaldo Arcia is another cheap bat who has had success versus him.
- Away Gentlemen start your BOS stacks! Will Middlebrooks has been producing and is cheap. I like all the left-handed bats in this one because Worley is surrendering a .344 BAA versus left-handers. He is giving up a .417 BAA versus right-handers so there is not a bad play but the lefty splits are more in line with his career numbers.
