MLB Daily Grind Down May 17th Part 3
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time. (any fp listed uses Fanduel’s scoring system)
Tonight is another day filled with huge Qualifiers and big Tournaments. I have to weasel Fridays off next year because they are turning out to be the best day in daily fantasy for the baseball season. I just missed on Tuesday’s qualifier but there are plenty left for one of us to win. Here is today’s Grind Down to get your research started in the right direction.
Milwaukee at St. Louis
| Milwaukee | St. Louis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Busch Stadium | 8:15 PM | ||||||
| Wily Peralta – (3-3), 5.4 ERA, 4.6 K/9, 1.49 WHIP | Jaime Garcia – (4-2), 2.88 ERA, 6.84 K/9, 1.3 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (53-201 H/AB) 0.264 BA-A, 19.9 K%, 0.697 OPS-A | PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 3.55 ERA, 0 HRA, 5 K/9, 1.184 WHIP | HOME | (1-0), 1.66 ERA, 1 HRA, 7.5 K/9, 1.154 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
MIL BvP  | MIL vs L | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored STL -170
Pitchers
- Home The last few Grind Downs we have made a big deal about MIL ability to hit left-handed pitching and they have gone completely bust against. Jaime Garcia is another left-hander and he faces them again today. I have suggested MIL the past 2 days because of those splits but I actually like Jamie Garcia today because of his great home record and the fact that he has held MIL starters in check. Of course, this means that he will get batted around on today, MIL is batting .232 on the road, .282 versus left-handers and .236 over the last 7 days. The OU is a little high but he is off to a great start and is a huge favorite. Target
- Away Wily Peralta ERA, WHIP and K/9 are all bad but those numbers pale in comparison to the .476 BAA STL has posted on him in 21 AB. STL is batting .265 at home, .275 versus right-handers, and .283 over the last 7 days.
Batters
- Home Gentleman start your STL stacks! Carlos Beltran, Matt Carpenter, and Jon Jay have been noticeably hot.
- Away Yuniesky Betancourt is 5-12 versus Garcia if he gets the start. Jean Segura is on a monster tear producing 45.75 fp over the last 7 days and has a .380 batting average versus left-handers. Ryan Braun is batting .429 versus left-handers and has big GPP upside.
San Francisco at Colorado
| San Francisco | Colorado | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coors Field | 8:40 PM | ||||||
| Madison Bumgarner – (4-1), 2.18 ERA, 9.14 K/9, 0.93 WHIP | Jorge De La Rosa – (4-3), 2.98 ERA, 5.59 K/9, 1.21 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (44-160 H/AB) 0.275 BA-A, 18.13 K%, 0.831 OPS-A | PvB | (23-92 H/AB) 0.25 BA-A, 16.3 K%, 0.717 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (2-0), 0.83 ERA, 1 HRA, 5.8 K/9, 0.646 WHIP | HOME | (2-0), 0 ERA, 0 HRA, 4.5 K/9, 0.667 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| SFG BvP | SFG vs L | COL BvP | COL vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9.5
- Favored SFO -110
Pitchers
- Home Jorge De La Rosa may have lost some of his zip but he is pitching well on the year. He has been able to shut down some pretty good teams at home and has a 2.98 ERA on the year. That loss of zip has hurt his K/9, though, so there is not much upside to playing him since the potential for disaster in COL outweighs his upside. SFO is batting .257 on the road, .248 versus left-handers and .311 over the last 7 days. Avoid
- Away Madison Bumgarner has Cy Young numbers at this point in the season. This man is younger than Matt Harvey and does not get the credit he deserves. A start in COL would be hard for Bob Gibson in his prime so there is no way I am willing to recommend him today. It does not help the fact that COL crushes at home and has great BvPs versus him. COL is batting .274 at home, .263 versus left-handers, and .205 over the last 7 days. Avoid
Batters
- Home Carlos Gomez is 9-25 versus Bumgarner with 3 HR. Tyler Covlin, Todd Helton, Jordan Pacheco and Troy Tulowitzki all have positive BvPs also. Carlos Gonzalez has been hot producing 23.75 fp over the last week and is batting .365 versus left-handers on the year. Todd Helton has a .444 average versus lefties also. Troy Tulowitzki gains the splits in his favor and has a .375 average at home on the year.
- Away I am salivating to get Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and Hunter Pence ‘s plus .300 batting average versus left-handers into my LU today at Coors Field. Marco Scutaro and Brandon Belt have been hot. De La Rosa has been producing so I am not recommending a load but I think everyone is playable.
Chicago White Sox at LA Angels
| Chicago White Sox | LA Angels | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel Stadium | 10:05 PM | ||||||
| Chris Sale – (4-2), 2.88 ERA, 7.86 K/9, 0.94 WHIP | C.J. Wilson – (3-2), 3.88 ERA, 8.78 K/9, 1.54 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (7-53 H/AB) 0.132 BA-A, 33.96 K%, 0.377 OPS-A | PvB | (28-106 H/AB) 0.264 BA-A, 16.04 K%, 0.783 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-2), 4.56 ERA, 3 HRA, 7.4 K/9, 1.13 WHIP | HOME | (1-0), 4 ERA, 2 HRA, 7 K/9, 1.5 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CHW BvP | CHW vs L | LAA BvP | LAA vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored LAA -115
Pitchers
- Home C.J. Wilson takes the hill as the slight favorite in this one. He has not been an Ace on the year but he has also only given up more than 3 ER in one of his 8 starts. In that start he only gave up 4 ER so he has been really solid. CWS have been struggling so he seems in a good spot to be played today at home. CHW is batting .249 on the road, .251 versus left-handers, and .279 over the last 7 days. In Play
- Away Chris Sale had it working in his last outing versus LAA. While 9.0 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and 7 Ks might not be attainable today, the set a pretty high ceiling for this man to reach against this team. Sale has run into trouble on the road with a 4.56 ERA and I am always weary about the hitters learning from their mistakes the second time around but he certainly has GPP upside. In Play
Batters
- Home Mike Trout has been huge over the last 7 days with 37.25 fp. Pujols has been hot also producing 24.25 fp and has been known to own left-handers in his career.
- Away Jeff Keppinger loves hitting lefties and has positive BvPs verus Wilson. Alexi Ramirez is 7-15 vs. Wilson. Adam Dunn, Dayan Viciedo, Alex Rios, and Alexi Ramirez have all produced over 20 fp in the last week. Adam Dunn did not start the last time these two teams faced.
Kansas City at Oakland
| Kansas City | Oakland | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.co Coliseum | 10:07 PM | ||||||
| James Shields – (2-3), 2.48 ERA, 8.22 K/9, 0.97 WHIP | Jarrod Parker – (2-5), 6.86 ERA, 6.72 K/9, 1.84 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (22-92 H/AB) 0.239 BA-A, 26.09 K%, 0.63 OPS-A | PvB | (6-19 H/AB) 0.316 BA-A, 15.79 K%, 0.895 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-1), 3.12 ERA, 1 HRA, 9 K/9, 1.269 WHIP | HOME | (1-3), 9.61 ERA, 3 HRA, 5.5 K/9, 1.983 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| KCR BvP | KCR vs R | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored KANB -115
Pitchers
- Home Jarrod Parker has been pitching horrible and KAN owns a .316 BAA versus him so I am a little surprised by the low OU of 7 in this one. Parker gave up 4 HR 2 starts ago and has struggled with fly balls on the year so I am not sure where Vegas’s faith in him comes from. KAn is batting .273 on the road, .259 on the road, and .267 over the last 7 days. Avoid
- Away James Shields is on my list of players I am targeting today. He has pitched fantastic on the year and gets a start in a pitcher friendly park. OAK is slumping, batting .233 at home, .230 versus right-handers, and .215 over the last 7 days. Target
Batters
- Home I cannot recommend anyone on OAK outside of Josh Donaldson who is steadily producing and is undervalued on some sites.
- Away Billy Butler is hot producing 30 fp over the last 7 days. There is not much BvP data and the park scares me off of suggesting a stack but everyone is in play versus this struggling pitcher.
Washington at San Diego
| Washington | San Diego | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petco Park | 10:10 PM | ||||||
| Gio Gonzalez – (3-2), 4.2 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 1.2 WHIP | Burch Smith – (0-0), 54 ERA, 18 K/9, 7 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (7-25 H/AB) 0.28 BA-A, 16 K%, 0.92 OPS-A | PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-1), 7.71 ERA, 2 HRA, 12.2 K/9, 2 WHIP | HOME | NO DATA | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| WSN BvP | WSN vs R | SDP BvP | SDP vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored WAS -140
Pitchers
- Home Burch Smith may not be a name that you recognize but the OU of 7 in this game makes him more than playable in a GPP. His last outing in TAM did not go so well and he has a 54.00 ERA on the season but Vegas has faith in him today versus a struggling WAS offense and he has a hell of a fastball and great K/9 potential. WAS is batting .225 on the road, .242 versus right-handers, and .226 over the last 7 days. In Play
- Away Gio Gonzalez got off to a rough start on the year but has looked better recently. His troubles have come on the road where he is a 7.71 pitcher but I think he benefits from the park today. SDG is batting .245 at home, .233 versus left-handers, and .228 over the last 7 days. Target
Batters
- Home Everyone talks about Chase Headley on the road but he is batting .370 at home on the year. Carlos Quentin is 5-11 with 1 HR versus Gonzalez.
- Away Smith left a lot of balls over the middle of the plate in his last start. If you think you will get that same pitcher than consider firing off a load. I trust Vegas on this one and thing the pitcher friendly park will help him. Bryce Harper .356 batting average versus right-handed pitching is playable either way. Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman, and Adam Laroche have been hot.
