MLB Daily Grind Down May 2nd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Happy Thursday to you Grinders. I am flying high off my strong showing on Wednesday on DraftStreet. A late Nick Hundley HR ended my chances of winning the Big Score but I am happy with a top five finish. There are other big scores to be had this MLB season so let’s get back to the daily grind.
Miami at Philadelphia
| Miami | Philadelphia | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens Bank Park | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Alex Sanabia – (2-3), 4.85 ERA, 4.62 K/9, 1.62 WHIP | Kyle Kendrick – (2-1), 2.41 ERA, 6.51 K/9, 1.1 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (2-11 H/AB) 0.182 BA-A, 0.09 K%, 0.636 OPS-A | PvB | (22-99 H/AB) 0.222 BA-A, 0.26 K%, 0.606 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-1), 3.75 ERA, 1 HRA, 3 K/9, 1.667 WHIP | HOME | (1-1), 4.58 ERA, 3 HRA, 7.6 K/9, 1.642 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
MIA BvP  | MIA vs R | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
- OU 7.5
- Favored PHI -210
Pitchers
- Home Kyle Kendrick has been pitching lights out. His Ks are a little lower than you would like to see but a 2.41 ERA and 1.10 WHIP are pretty good. Both totals are much higher than his career averages, which suggest to me that the numbers could level out soon. Either way, he draws a weak MIA team and is obvious play today. Target
- Away Alex Sanabia would not be a matchup play even if the Marlins were a good team. He gives up way tooo many hits. Does not K enough people and probably will not get the win again today. Avoid
Batters
- Home Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have been the two most productive Phillies. They gain the splits in their favor again today. Sanabia has been bad so that puts everyone in play for me.
- Away Juan Pierre has positive BvPs and has been hot ovet the last week with 5 steals. I think Kendrick is pitching above himself so there should be some points to be had but picking which MIA player it will be right now is simply a gamble.
h2. Boston at Toronto
| Boston | Toronto | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogers Centre | 7:07 PM | ||||||
| Ryan Dempster – (1-2), 3.3 ERA, 12.9 K/9, 1.13 WHIP | Josh Johnson – (0-1), 6.86 ERA, 0 K/9, 1.88 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (15-88 H/AB) 0.17 BA-A, 0.26 K%, 0.511 OPS-A | PvB | (29-99 H/AB) 0.293 BA-A, 0.15 K%, 0.747 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-1), 5.4 ERA, 1 HRA, 14.4 K/9, 1.8 WHIP | HOME | (0-0), 4.42 ERA, 3 HRA, 8.8 K/9, 1.527 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| BOS BvP | BOS vs R | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9
- Favored BOS -125
Pitchers
- Home J.A. Happ has been a sneaky good play a few times this season. He has had some good starts and some bad ones. He is a high risk/reward player whose decent K/9 ratio makes him a factor in GPPs. BOS is batting .295 on the road, .240 vs. left-handers and .340 over the last 7 days. They are hot but the BvPs favor Happ. BOS has only a .190 team BAA vs. him.
- Away Ryan Dempster has been a K machine to start the season. His success has not translated into wins, yet, but 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on the season is pretty good. He runs into a TOR team batting .230 at home, .227 vs. right-handers, and .234 over the last 7 days but with 13 HR over that time. He has owned TOR to the tune of a .179 BAA. *Target
Batters
- Home The sample size is small but Jacoby Elisbury and Dustin Pedroia are the only two Red Soxs that the numbers favor. If you believ in hot streaks then you can pretty much ride the whole team because they are all producing.
- Away Edwin Ercarnacion has been on fire hitting 5 HR this week and scoring 32.75 fp over that time. Jose Bautista has been solid as well. Melky Cabrera has the only positive BvPs. Tough to trust anyone from a time that only has 5 XBH in 88 AB vs. Dempster
Washington at Atlanta
| Washington | Atlanta | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner Field | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Dan Haren – (2-3), 6.29 ERA, 0 K/9, 1.73 WHIP | Kris Medlen – (1-3), 3.26 ERA, 5.38 K/9, 1.35 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (23-106 H/AB) 0.217 BA-A, 0.31 K%, 0.689 OPS-A | PvB | (19-81 H/AB) 0.235 BA-A, 0.28 K%, 0.593 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-2), 9.72 ERA, 5 HRA, 7.6 K/9, 2.04 WHIP | HOME | (0-1), 2.25 ERA, 1 HRA, 6 K/9, 1.333 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
- OU 8
- Favored PHI -200
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored ATL -170
Pitchers
- Home Kris Medlen takes the mound is the strong favorite in this one. He got knocked around in his last start but has had a good start to the season before that. His Ks are on the low side and his Fly ball to ground ball ratios strongly favors fly balls so I think we will see more outings like his last one. He runs into a WAS team batting .220 on the road, .240 vs. right-handers, and .219 over the last 7 days who should be without two of its best hitter in Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth. Vegas has faith in him. In Play
- Away After a horrid start, Dan Haren last two outing have him pointed in a positive direction. He was a better pitcher on the road than he was at home a year ago and gets the treat of pitching in ATL today. He takes the mound against an ATL team batting .235 at home, .243 vs. right-handers, and .214 over the last seven days. I think he might be heating up while ATL is cooling off. In Play
Batters
- Home B.J. Upton has a nice set of BvPs versus Wilson. He has produced negative fp over the last 7 days, though. Justin Upton is the highest scoring brave over the past 7 days with 14.5 fp and it seems the whole team has gone cold. Freedie Freeman gains the splits in his favor today and is worth a look.
- Away Ian Desmond has positive BvPs versus Medlen and has been producing well over the last week. Danny Espinosa has also been swing a better bat after a cold start. He was a solid option at 2B a year ago and his price has dropped on most sites if you are looking for value upside play.
Chicago White Sox at Texas
| Chicago White Sox | Texas | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers Ballpark | 8:05 PM | ||||||
| Jake Peavy – (3-1), 3.38 ERA, 10.97 K/9, 1.12 WHIP | Justin Grimm – (2-0), 1.59 ERA, 7.94 K/9, 1.18 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (36-135 H/AB) 0.267 BA-A, 0.24 K%, 0.844 OPS-A | PvB | (1-4 H/AB) 0.25 BA-A, 0.25 K%, 1 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-1), 5.11 ERA, 4 HRA, 13.1 K/9, 1.216 WHIP | HOME | (1-0), 1.5 ERA, 0 HRA, 13.5 K/9, 1.167 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CHW BvP | CHW vs R | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored TEX -128
Pitchers
- Home Justin Grimm has been very good in his first 3 MLB starts pitching 17 IP giving up onl3 3 ER and striking out 15. He runs into a CHW batting .247 on the road, .231 vs. right-handers and .237 over the last 7 days. Their bats have come to life in Arlington, though. He faces a tough opponent on the mound. It is hard to discount his production so far in the season. In Play
- Away Hector Santiago gets the spot start today. With long relievers you always have to wonder if they will even make it the five innings required to get the win. He draws a potent offense to throw against and is taking the hill in a very hitter friendly park. Avoid
Batters
- Home I wonder if we see the same right-handed heavy LU that was thrown in against Chris Sale yesterday. You can pretty much play who ever you like tonight but Adrian Beltre, Ian Kinsler, and Nelson Cruz are the great plays here because the splits strongly favor them again tonight.
- Away Adam Dunn is on a nice little streak over the last 7 games with 3 HRs and 26 fp over that time. The young player, Conor Gillaspie continue to keep producing yielding 20 fp over the last week,