MLB Daily Grind Down: Saturday, August 17th

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-08-17 18:28:25

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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St. Louis vs. Chicago Cubs

1:05 PM	St. Louis – ROAD					Chicago Cubs – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.273	0.741	18.00%	0.60		0.241	0.704	19.70%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.284	0.764	17.70%	0.49		0.244	0.708	18.80%	0.44
SP STATS	Kelly – RHP					Jackson – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.38	3.14	6.19	3.83		1.41	5.05	7.16	8.30
LAST 14 DAYS	1.36	2.16	4.44	9.40		1.61	6.00	4.00	6.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	STL vs R		STL BvP			CHC vs R		CHC BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8

• Favored Team – STL -125

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home There are only 3 day games this morning. Well, they are late afternoon games really but there will be some early start GPPs, which could hit overlay. Travis Wood is not the favorite this morning but the smaller the pool size the greater the overlay. I think you either have to take Wood over Kelly or avoid this matchup entirely if you want to win your GPP. Wood is having a fantastic year and he has pitched great against tough opponents so it is not that much of a reach. STL is batting .267 on the road, .235 versus left-handers and .243 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 6

• Away Joe Kelly against the Cubs is the easy value play of the morning. It is not bad play. It is a good one. It is just too easy and everyone will have him on a multiple pitcher site. Playing with the field is tough but if you trust your batter selections go ahead and take Joe Kelly. CHC is batting .250 at home, .244 versus right-handers, and .212 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

Batter Grind Down

• Home There are no good bets with the Cub’s bat but Castillo Schierholtz, and Murphy hit right-handers for a decent average and have been productive over the last 7 days. RG Stack Rating 2

• Away STL owns a .344 BAA as a team versus Wood. Allen Craig is 7-19 with 2 HR. Matt Holiday is 7-23 with 2 HR. Carlos Beltran is 5-16 with 1 HR. All 3 of those players hit left-handers very well. RG Stack Rating 5

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Arizona vs. Pittsburgh

4:05 PM	Arizona – ROAD					Pittsburgh – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.257	0.713	18.50%	0.55		0.245	0.702	22.30%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.263	0.713	17.00%	0.41		0.242	0.694	22.10%	0.41
SP STATS	Cahill – RHP					Locke – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.41	4.66	6.46	7.48		1.26	2.43	6.64	10.30
LAST 14 DAYS						1.99	4.70	7.75	6.70
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	ARI vs L		ARI BvP			PIT vs R		PIT BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – PIT -160

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Jeff Locke is having a great season. He is actually better on the road but his 3.18 home ERA is still very playable. The most telling stat for him today is that he is holding right-handed batters to a .209 BAA, which could mitigate some of those righty/lefty splits that favor ARI. ARI is batting .259 on the road, .262 versus left-handers, and .253 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

• Away Trevor Cahill made 98 pitches in his last rehab start so I think this an instance in which he is in play. Taking pitchers coming back from an injury is a risky endeavor. There is a reason why Vegas has him listed as the huge underdog but if he can get back to pitching like he did in April and May then he will be worth his price. It is not that far of a reach. PIT is batting .250 at home, .243 versus right-handers, and .254 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

Batter Grind Down

• Home Andrew McCuthchen at home is almost an autoplay for me so is Pedro Alvarez in a day game. This roster is loaded with left-handed bats and Cahill could struggle in his first start back so consider a few of them since Cahill is allowing a .276 BAA to left-handers on the year. RG Stack Rating 6

• Away Cody Ross is batting .291 versus left-handers. Aaron Hill, Wil Nieves, Martin Prado and Paul Goldschmidt all have high averages versus left-handers as well. Hill has been super hot with 34 fp over the last 7 days. RG Stack Rating 4

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NY Yankees vs. Boston

4:05 PM	NY Yankees – ROAD					Boston – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.240	0.669	19.60%	0.52		0.273	0.785	20.30%	0.69
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.240	0.675	19.80%	0.39		0.286	0.821	19.90%	0.58
SP STATS	Kuroda – RHP					Lackey – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.03	2.33	6.42	11.18		1.22	3.32	8.32	11.19
LAST 14 DAYS	0.91	1.23	7.77	14.00		1.40	4.05	9.45	10.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYY vs R		NYY BvP			BOS vs R		BOS BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – BOS -127

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home John Lackey has been strong at home on the year with a 2.13 ERA. However, these two teams always play each other tough. It does not help things that NYY starters all have positive BvPs versus Lackey and that NYY bats have become energized. NYY is batting .238 on the road, .243 versus right-handers, and .317 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

• Away Hiroki Kuroda has elevated himself to ace status this year or at least the 38 year old’s numbers are there. His K/9 totals are not high but he pitches deep into games so he gets his fair share in the stat line. Taking him on the road against the league’s 2nd highest scoring offense would be an incredible risky play but you are going to have to gamble on one of these matchups in order to win your GPP. Believe it or not Kuroda is the safest gamble because of his big game potential. BOS is batting .284 at home, .284 versus right-handers, and .264 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 6

Batter Grind Down

• Home BOS is like DET, everyone is playable everyday. BOS starters have positive BvPs versus Kuroda. David Ortiz ‘s 6-9 with 1 HR is the most notable. RG Stack Rating 4

• Away Alfonso Soriano is the only NYY starter who has poor numbers versus Lackey but he is also super hot with 62.25 fp over the last 7 days. Alex Rodriguez has 5 HR in 51 AB versus Lackey. Everyone is worth a look today but I do not think an NYY stack is playable. You just need to find those right 2 guys that have a big day. Good luck! RG Stack Rating 4

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Night Games Coming Soon

San Francisco vs. Miami

7:10 PM	San Francisco – ROAD					Miami – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.259	0.690	17.20%	0.51		0.231	0.622	19.50%	0.43
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.262	0.700	17.00%	0.40		0.232	0.614	18.80%	0.31
SP STATS	Cain – RHP					Alvarez – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.13	4.44	8.14	9.75		1.16	3.18	4.76	8.50
LAST 14 DAYS	0.82	2.45	7.36	12.67		1.10	3.98	4.93	8.70
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SFG vs R		SFG BvP			MIA vs R		MIA BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7

• Favored Team – SFO -130

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home I do not want to like Henderson Alvarez but it is hard to argue against a pitcher who has thrown 55 ground ball outs to 39 fly ball outs in his last 5 starts. The low OU is an indicator and Vegas expects him to pitch well. He could be a sneaky GPP play in a multiple pitcher site if you are not taking Cain. SFO is batting .263 on the road, .263 versus right-handers, and .263 over the last 7 days……weird! RG Start-Ability 5

• Away Matt Cain at his price is an auto-play versus MIA. His high ERA has made him a value. He is putting together a great run since the All-Star break with a 2.38 ERA. His ERA is a full point higher from a year ago but his other numbers are all slightly better. He is still that pitcher and has a great matchup. MIA is batting .231 at home, .234 versus right-handers, and .234 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 9

Batter Grind Down

• Home Outside of Logan Morrison, you are playing Russian Rolette with any other MIA player. Only instead of there being only 1 bullet in the chamber, there are 5, RG Stack Rating 1

• Away Brandon Belt and Hunter Pence have been super hot for SFO. I wish I had Pence last night. RG Stack Rating 2

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Kansas City vs. Detroit

7:05 PM	Kansas City – ROAD					Detroit – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.259	0.692	16.60%	0.55		0.279	0.783	17.50%	0.65
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.260	0.698	16.70%	0.41		0.282	0.781	16.80%	0.52
SP STATS	Davis – RHP					Fister – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.73	5.29	7.97	7.87		1.22	3.60	6.68	10.33
LAST 14 DAYS	1.46	3.27	6.55	9.50		1.35	3.15	4.95	9.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	KCR vs R		KCR BvP			DET vs R		DET BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5

• Favored Team – DET -200

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Doug Fister is a huge favorite today. If you want to talk about perception then only 6.5 games separate DET, a team everyone loves to stack, and KAN, a team everyone loves to target. They have played 243 games between them. Fister has been a beast at home and is the near lock to get the win. However, he has an already low K/9 to begin with and KAN has recorded the fewest Ks so he is not a good play for you in a GPP. KAN is .260 on the road, .258 versus right-handers, and .257 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away Wade Davis has a better chance of writing the next great American Novel than he has of beating DET in DET today. He brings with him a very heavy 6.29 road ERA and DET crushes the ball at home. DET is batting .294 at home, .283 versus right-handers, and .279 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 2

Batter Grind Down

• Home Don’t worry about the Mules. Just load the Wagon! Miguel Cabrera ‘s 5-14 with 2 HRs is the most impressive set of BvPs. RG Stack Rating 9

• Away Eric Hosmer and Billy Bitler have both been hot for KAN. Butler is 8-26 versus Fister. RG Stack Rating 3

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