MLB Daily Grind Down: Sunday, September 1st

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-09-01 05:00:42

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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Cleveland vs. Detroit

1:05 PM	Cleveland – ROAD					Detroit – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.253	0.732	21.10%	0.63		0.282	0.785	16.90%	0.65
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.248	0.723	21.70%	0.48		0.286	0.787	16.30%	0.52
SP STATS	Salazar – RHP					Verlander – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.00	3.67	10.67	10.40		1.36	3.73	8.54	11.47
LAST 14 DAYS	1.10	2.89	9.89	8.05		1.45	4.95	6.75	8.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CLE vs R		CLE BvP			DET vs R		DET BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Danny Salazar – His 10.67 K/9 ratio since being called up is impressive and there’s no doubt he can make guys whiff. He struck out 10 Detroit hitters in 7 2/3 IP in his only outing against the Tigers. The upside is there but pitching in Detroit is a whole lot harder than getting the Tigers on the road. Starter Rating: 5 out of 10

• Justin Verlander – In 4 starts against CLE he has 29 K’s in 25 IP but he’s coming off back to back duds against the Twins and Athletics average offenses. He’s a -160 favorite but the 8.5 O/U tells you what you need to know about this game. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Lefties are hitting just .189 off Salazar and righties are at .186. I’m not sure who to target here for Detroit.
• Brantley is 14-35 with 4 XBH off Verlander. Bourn is 7-16, Santana is 6-29, newly acquired Jason Kubel is 12-41. That’s the good for Cleveland.
• Swisher is 12-60, Asdrubal is 11-52 and Giambi is just 6-20. That’s the bad of BvP for Cleveland.

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Baltimore vs. NY Yankees

1:05 PM	Baltimore – ROAD					NY Yankees – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.264	0.755	18.10%	0.63		0.246	0.685	19.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.251	0.708	19.10%	0.44		0.249	0.681	18.90%	0.41
SP STATS	Chen – LHP					Pettitte – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.22	3.76	5.82	9.24		1.41	4.05	6.12	9.05
LAST 14 DAYS	1.53	7.41	7.94	7.33		1.09	0.46	5.16	13.73
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BAL vs L		BAL BvP			NYY vs L		NYY BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Wei-Yin Chen – 3 2/3 IP with 8 ER in his last start in Fenway. Now he faces another hot offense on their home turf. He has faced them once this year and was extremely average. I don’t see much upside here. Starter Rating: 3 out of 10

• Andy Pettitte – Before jumping down Pettitte’s throat, consider his .46 ERA over his last 3 starts. He doesn’t strike a ton of guys out but efficiency and does still matter on a few sites so that would be the best place to consider him. Baltimore has also struggled against lefties this season. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• As long as he’s still allowed to play, there’s no reason to avoid A-Fraud against the lefty Chen.
• Mark Reynolds has been a great acquisition for NYY and always hits lefties well, he’s a tremendous value play today.
• Nick Markakis has some good history against Pettitte. He’s 12-41 with 2 HR.
• Baltimore in general has struggled against lefties but Pettitte’s .312 batting average against right handed bats puts guys like Wieters and Hardy in play for sure today.

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Kansas City vs. Toronto

1:07 PM	Kansas City – ROAD					Toronto – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.258	0.688	16.60%	0.54		0.252	0.733	18.00%	0.62
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.260	0.688	16.30%	0.40		0.255	0.748	17.90%	0.50
SP STATS	Shields – RHP					Happ – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.26	3.14	7.24	11.11		1.51	5.46	7.31	6.93
LAST 14 DAYS	1.14	1.69	6.82	13.70		1.52	6.46	8.34	7.37
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	KCR vs L		KCR BvP			TOR vs R		TOR BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• James Shields – He tossed a complete game with 6 K’s in his only other game against the Blue Jays this season. He’s also coming off the heels of 2 great performances and about 4-5 consecutive quality starts. I really like Shields today even on the road. The Blue Jays are struggling right now. Starter Rating: 9 out of 10

• J.A. Happ – He might be the anti-Pettitte in that he strikes out a ton but gives up a ton of runs too. The Royals have some guys who mash left handers though and I wouldn’t play him today, especially as a rare underdog in his home ballpark. Starter Rating: 2 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Not touching the Toronto bats, except maybe Adam Lind who has 12 hits in 49 AB’s off Shields but 5 of those went deep.
• Happ has struggled more against lefties than righties this year and a guy like Alex Gordon who hits lefties pretty well could be a nice reverse splits option. I also like Sal-Perez and Billy Butler from the right side of the plate.

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Chicago White Sox vs. Boston

1:35 PM	Chicago White Sox – ROAD					Boston – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.251	0.683	19.30%	0.51		0.273	0.780	20.40%	0.68
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.243	0.656	19.10%	0.37		0.282	0.807	20.20%	0.56
SP STATS	Rienzo – RHP					Doubront – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.44	4.21	6.23	8.02		1.38	3.74	7.94	10.17
LAST 14 DAYS	1.33	4.00	5.50	8.33		1.15	4.34	6.92	10.40
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CHW vs L		CHW BvP			BOS vs R		BOS BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Andre Rienzo – He’s been really consistent but being a +210 underdog in a game with a 9.5 projected run total is NOT a good look. Best case scenario, he posts a mediocre line. Pass on Rienzo. Starter Rating: 3 out of 10

• Felix Doubront – He bounced back from a cold snap in late July with 2 gems against San Fran and Baltimore. He faces an offense, much like SF, without much to fear. He’s a huge favorite and is usually good for about 5 to 6 K’s. I love Doubront as one of the best value SP’s on the board today. Starter Rating: 8 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Rienzo is giving up a HR every 22 ABs or so against lefties and has definitely struggled more-so against them. The Red Sox hit righties extremely well and this could be the breakout game David Ortiz needs to get out of his recent skid.
• Look at Ellsbury and Nava in the outfield. Ellsbury can take advantage of a young pitcher on the basepaths and Nava hits righties extremely well.
• Jeff Keppinger is 4-10 with a HR off Doubront.
• Doubront has only allowed 1 HR to a left handed bat all season, so it probably takes Adam Dunn off the board today.

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St. Louis vs. Pittsburgh

1:35 PM	St. Louis – ROAD					Pittsburgh – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.272	0.743	17.90%	0.61		0.245	0.705	22.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.239	0.679	18.90%	0.41		0.241	0.696	22.10%	0.41
SP STATS	Kelly – RHP					Johnson – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.41	2.91	5.95	4.62
LAST 14 DAYS	1.50	1.50	5.00	12.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	STL vs L		STL BvP			PIT vs R		PIT BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Joe Kelly – Pirates are crushing right now AND just picked up Justin Morneau who will likely play at 1B against the righty Kelly. No go. Starter Rating: 2 out of 10

• Kris Johnson – Have literally never heard of the guy but Yadi, Beltran, Craig and Holliday all make left handers cry on a consistent basis. Starter Rating: 0 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Where to start? I really know nothing about this Kris Johnson guy but here’s what I know about Cardinals hitters. Yadier Molina has an .886 OPS against lefties and Holliday/Freese hit lefties well also.
• I think you can safely target the Cards bats today in what I expect to be a statement game from a team that has been embarrassed over the last 2 games.
• For the Pirates, I LOVE Morneau coming in for his first game (if he’s in the LU). He faces Kelly who’s allowed 5 HR to lefties in 150 ABs against and should be pumped up playing for anyone other than the Twins and for being in a playoff race.
• How can I forget day-game Pedro? I have to admit I’m a little disappointed as his OPS during the day is under .700 but I still am drawn to him when the sun is out, especially against a righty. I’m calling his shot. He’s taking one deep today. Make sure you have him.

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