MLB Daily Grind Down: Sunday, September 8th Part Three

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-09-08 07:37:15

Arizona vs. San Francisco

4:05 PM	Arizona – ROAD				San Francisco – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.259	0.717	18.30%	0.56	0.259	0.692	16.90%	0.51
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.264	0.718	17.00%	0.42	0.255	0.670	17.20%	0.36
SP STATS	Miley – LHP				Bumgarner – LHP
SP STATS	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.30	3.55	6.60	9.71	1.04	2.91	8.59	12.26
LAST 14 DAYS	1.15	3.46	4.85	7.50	1.30	4.05	7.56	9.05
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
BATTER SPLITS	ARI vs L		ARI BvP		SFG vs L		SFG BvP

Wade Miley – Miley continues to be unpredictable, and his last start vs. Toronto is a perfect example of that. Given the good matchup vs. SF though, along with the big ballpark, I think he may be in play in GPPs today. Starter Rating: 6.5 out of 10
Madison Bumgarner – Bummy has a 1.98 ERA against the Dbacks and has been great at home on the season. I really like this play in a low scoring affair. Starter Rating: 8 out of 10

If you want to gamble against Miley, target Pence, Posey and Scutaro who all hit lefties well.
Posey is 6-12, Scutaro is 5-14 and Torres is 5-11 vs. Miley. Sandoval could also be an upside play who has hit Miley hard as well.
Avoid ARI bats

4:07 PM	Houston – ROAD				Oakland – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.239	0.683	25.60%	0.54	0.244	0.718	19.40%	0.59
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.237	0.678	25.30%	0.41	0.244	0.710	19.10%	0.46
SP STATS	Clemens – RHP				Colon – RHP
SP STATS	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.42	5.81	6.72	2.36	1.19	2.94	4.75	9.88
LAST 14 DAYS	1.00	1.50	3.00	7.00	1.40	1.80	1.80	5.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
BATTER SPLITS	HOU vs R		HOU BvP		OAK vs R		OAK BvP

Paul Clemens – 2 negative FP outings in his last 3 appearances means you shouldn’t even consider him. Starter Rating: 0 out of 10
Bartolo Colon – I love Bartolo at home vs. Houston but he needs to get his K-rate up to present more value today. He’s also struggled against the Astros on the year and has been subpar in his last few starts. Point being, I think this is a pitcher better left avoided today. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10

Jason Castro is 6-9 with a HR off Bartolo and if he stays in the lineup on Sunday he’s a terrific option at Catcher.
An Athletics stack is a fantastic idea, especially with Crisp, Lowrie, Moss, Smith and others destroying right handers.
Cespedes had a big game Saturday and is a streaky hitter who can heat up in a hurry.

4:10 PM	Colorado – ROAD				San Diego – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.264	0.735	19.80%	0.60	0.247	0.693	20.90%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.266	0.749	19.90%	0.48	0.244	0.677	20.80%	0.39
SP STATS	Bettis – RHP				Kennedy – RHP
SP STATS	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.67	4.80	4.50	4.83	1.42	5.10	7.93	8.51
LAST 14 DAYS	1.53	3.97	5.68	6.55	1.62	4.76	8.92	10.05
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
BATTER SPLITS	COL vs R		COL BvP		SDP vs R		SDP BvP

Chad Bettis – Nothing will make me take Chad Bettis. Starter Rating: 0 out of 10
Ian Kennedy – Kennedy might be a good value in the spacious PetCo park and as a -154 favorite. The line set at 8 is more intended to show how bad Bettis is, and not representative of Kennedy. Starter Rating: 7 out of 10

Will Venable is worth most price tags today against Bettis.
Bettis’ .889 OPS allowed vs. lefties seems bad but he’s equally awful against righties, allowing them to an .808 OPS against.
Ian Kennedy has allowed lefties to an OPS over .800 as well though, and Helton and Fowler could be in for a nice day today.
Tulo is 6-22 with 3 bombs off Kennedy lifetime.

4:10 PM	Tampa Bay – ROAD				Seattle – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.262	0.748	18.70%	0.62	0.243	0.706	21.70%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.739	18.70%	0.49	0.231	0.661	22.10%	0.39
SP STATS	Moore – LHP				Ramirez – RHP
SP STATS	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.23	3.41	8.55	11.72	1.35	5.18	7.84	9.13
LAST 14 DAYS					1.32	2.92	8.93	12.05
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
BATTER SPLITS	TBR vs R		TBR BvP		SEA vs L		SEA BvP

Matt Moore – He looked good in his last start out and should extend even further today. Against a K-happy Mariners team that has been the league’s 5th worst offense over the past week he’s worth a good look. Starter Rating: 8 out of 10
Erasmo Ramirez – Erasmo continues to disappoint despite above average K numbers and the only positive is that the Rays offense has been lacking and the home ballpark is very good to pitchers. Either way he’s unlikely to pick up a W and only has value as a deep 2nd pitcher in a GPP. Starter Rating: 5 out of 10

I would avoid the Mariners against Moore today at all costs.
Ben Zobrist is 3-4 with 2 HR vs. Erasmo in a tiny sample size, but has also been hitting well of late.
James Loney, Kelly Johnson or any other Rays lefty is in play today (DeJesus too), as Erasmo is allowing lefties to an OPS over .800

8:00 PM	LA Dodgers – ROAD				Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.266	0.723	18.40%	0.56	0.249	0.718	20.10%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.271	0.728	18.00%	0.44	0.243	0.707	20.10%	0.43
SP STATS	Kershaw – LHP				Bailey – RHP
SP STATS	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	0.88	1.72	8.69	14.79	1.14	3.55	8.79	11.71
LAST 14 DAYS	1.36	0.66	10.23	15.60	1.15	2.03	8.24	13.05
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
BATTER SPLITS	LAD vs R		LAD BvP		CIN vs L		CIN BvP

Clayton Kershaw – Pitcher’s duel with Kershaw playing in prime time. To me that means we’re gonna see the best of Kershaw. Still, this should be low scoring so I don’t think he’s a lock for the W, which is necessary when paying way up for him. He’s a -132 favorite but in my eyes that’s too high. Starter Rating: 8 out of 10
Homer Bailey – I love pitchers on Sunday Night Baseball, as I tend to think those games are lower scoring than most. In an Ace-duel like this one, I would be comfortable rolling Bailey out against LAD. Starter Rating: 7 out of 10

With a line at 7 runs (and favoring the under), I’m going to go ahead and say ignore any of the bats in this game.