MLB Daily Grind Down: Wednesday, August 14th Part 2

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-08-14 17:26:02

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LA Angels vs. NY Yankees

7:05 PM	LA Angels – ROAD					NY Yankees – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.265	0.750	18.30%	0.61		0.240	0.669	19.60%	0.52
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.274	0.767	17.90%	0.50		0.240	0.675	19.80%	0.39
SP STATS	Weaver – RHP					Nova – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.11	2.87	7.16	11.26		1.26	2.93	9.11	11.07
LAST 14 DAYS	0.99	2.49	6.37	12.73		1.14	0.86	9.86	15.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	LAA vs R		LAA BvP			NYY vs R		NYY BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
• Favored Team – NYY (-125)

Pitcher Grind Down

• Nova is averaging nearly twice as many FPPG at home this season, so he is definitely in play today despite facing an above average Angels offense. The low over/under and him favored over Weaver is another indication of that.
• Weaver might be better off avoided. His road ERA is nearly a run higher and he really struggled in his one start vs. NYY this season. Plus the Yankees have won 4 out of 5 and seem to be finding a groove.

Batter Grind Down

• A-Fraud is 8-24 off of Weaver with an impressive 5 HR’s. Granderson is 9-25 with another 5 HR. And Cano is 9-27 with no long balls. I don’t see Weaver getting lit up like Rockefeller Center on December 25th but there could be a few HR’s in this game, especially in that miniaturized ballpark in the Bronx.

• Mark Trumbo is 8-13 with 2 HR off of Nova and went deep last night. He might be a good play to catch on the upswing of a potential hot streak. Nova has just allowed 2 HR to RHB and 2 to LHB on the season though, so be wary of that.

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San Francisco vs. Washington

7:05 PM	San Francisco – ROAD					Washington – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.259	0.690	17.20%	0.51		0.241	0.687	20.40%	0.52
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.262	0.700	17.00%	0.40		0.249	0.703	20.30%	0.43
SP STATS	Lincecum – RHP					Zimmermann – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.27	4.18	9.51	10.87		1.09	3.10	6.79	11.52
LAST 14 DAYS	0.68	1.23	9.41	15.33		1.70	1.80	9.00	11.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SFG vs R		SFG BvP			WSN vs R		WSN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7
• Favored Team – (-148)

Pitcher Grind Down

• Lincecum looks like a good option on sites where the win is less significant. His WHIP, ERA and K/9 rates over the last month are outstanding. He is finally starting to look like the stud we all knew before last season’s disaster.
• Zimmermann bounced back from a tumultuous end of July with a nice performance against the Brewers, then another subpar game against Atlanta. I don’t know what to think of him right now but his 2.90 ERA at home makes me have a little bit of faith in his abilities against the horrific Giants offense.

Batter Grind Down

• I’m avoiding all Giants hitters tonight, there’s no real point in torturing yourself.
• Ian Desmond is 9-11 with a HR off of Lincecum so that’s definitely an option. Other than that, Harper and LaRoche both hit righties well and should be in play if you’re not buying into the revived Lincecum.

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Boston vs. Toronto

7:07 PM	Boston – ROAD					Toronto – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.273	0.785	20.30%	0.69		0.254	0.741	18.20%	0.63
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.286	0.821	19.90%	0.58		0.251	0.701	18.10%	0.44
SP STATS	Lester – LHP					Rogers – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.35	4.37	7.73	10.25		1.53	5.12	6.08	3.28
LAST 14 DAYS	1.27	3.44	8.95	11.03		2.73	14.59	5.95	0.03
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BOS vs R		BOS BvP			TOR vs L		TOR BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9.5
• Favored Team – BOS (-141)

Pitcher Grind Down

• I can’t tell if I’m excited or disappointed that Josh Johnson was replaced by Esmil Rogers (double check that too because I’ve also seen Thad Weber listed as tonight’s starter but am pretty sure it’s Rogers).
• Lester hasn’t been all that strong of late but the saving grace here is his 3.16 ERA and 21 K’s in 29 IP against Toronto this season. It’s a hitters ballpark though and I’d be very wary of him this evening with that high over/under looming.

Batter Grind Down

• I fully expected last night to be a scoring fest and that was a real disappointment (unless you’re a Sox fan like myself and enjoyed the W.) But tonight will be different. Esmil has allowed lefties to PUMMEL him to the tune of a .325 batting average against. Look for Nava, Ortiz, Salty, Victorino, Ellsbury, Carp, and Drew to all be in the lineup and to all have a good game against Esmil.

• Lester is allowing both lefties and righties to hit for a decent average against him, but his HRA per 20 at bats against lefties is worrisome. Adam Lind MIGHT be a nice variance/risk play tonight. Rajai Davis and Maicer Izturis both have good BvP splits but be careful with Encarnacion, Bautista and Arencibia. All of them have struggled vs. Lester a bit in their careers.

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Seattle vs. Tampa Bay

7:10 PM	Seattle – ROAD					Tampa Bay – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.246	0.717	21.50%	0.56		0.263	0.749	18.60%	0.63
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.232	0.670	22.10%	0.40		0.251	0.735	18.50%	0.49
SP STATS	Harang – RHP					Price – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.32	5.79	6.34	6.75		1.06	3.17	7.03	11.42
LAST 14 DAYS	1.83	11.25	4.50	1.00		0.65	0.77	6.62	14.03
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SEA vs L		SEA BvP			TBR vs R		TBR BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.0
• Favored Team – TBR (-270)

Pitcher Grind Down

• David Price is a MONSTER favorite in this one and rightfully so. The Mariners struggle against lefties and Price has been as solid as anyone since the break. My only fear with Price is his lack of K’s lately. He’s only gone over 5 K’s once since his 10 strikeout game against Houston to start July.

• Harang has back to back negative outputs. Enough said.

Batter Grind Down

• Avoid the Mariners bats, plain and simple.
• Lefties have an .841 OPS against Harang and righties are just under .750 against. There aren’t any Rays I’d look at and try to avoid tonight, Harang is just downright awful.

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