MLB Daily Plays: Fri, May 16th
What’s up everyone? It’s Friday and that means we have HUGE GPP’s, qualifiers, and satellites all across the DFS landscape today. There’s lots of stuff to discuss today so let’s get right down to business!
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Note – I am avoiding the PIT/NYY game due to the high probability that it gets rained out.
STARTING PITCHER
Yu Darvish – Normally I would be scared off a player who threw as many pitches as Darvish did in his last outing as he was going for a no-hitter. However, the Rangers have smartly given him a few extra days off before this start. His sparkling 10.5 K/9 this year is actually below his career average and his peripheral stats are sparkling despite one horrid outing against the A’s. All the aces on the mound have relatively difficult matchups tonight, but I like Darvish as the top overall option since he’s pitching at home and is on top of his game right now.
Sonny Gray – If you don’t want to spend on one of the big name pitchers tonight, Sonny Gray makes a nice mid-range play on a lot of sites. He hasn’t been striking out a ton of batters over his last few starts and has been pitching to contact a little more. This will help his pitch counts over the long haul and the kid just has flat out dazzling stuff. The Indians bats have talent but are extremely inconsistent (15 runs on Wednesday, stymied by JA Happ last night) and I like Gray at his relative prices industry-wide.
Tanner Roark – While most people will stop at the ace pitchers today, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to bargain shop. Roark has had some super-impressive games this year along with his share of clunkers, but the Mets are a perfect offense to target the young righty against. He’s already beaten them once this year and gets overlooked way too often in fantasy circles given his career WHIP of an almost unheard-of 0.99. He’s also shown an increased tendency to strike batters out of late and that’s a nice boost to his upside.
CATCHER
Yasmani Grandal – It’s a rare day where we can recommend Padres bats with confidence, but I don’t mind a few of them tonight for several reasons. A) The game is in Coors Field. B) The Padres do hit somewhat better against LHP. C) The game is in Coors Field. The Padres have a sneaky high team total of 4 to 4.5 runs tonight which for them is almost a week’s worth of output. Grandal will likely be hitting in the cleanup spot against De La Rosa tonight and I expect a fine game from the Padres young slugger.
Wilson Ramos – The Nats are glad to have their slugging catcher back in the lineup especially against left-handed pitching. He got a day off yesterday and should be back in his customary cleanup spot tonight thanks to all the Nats injuries. At this price he is a great bargain against a hittable lefty in Jonathan Niese.
FIRST BASE
Jose Abreu – He’s still swinging the bat amazingly well and makes for a solid play tonight against the mirage that is Colin McHugh. Abreu is on a stunning run production pace with 15 HR’s and 41 RBI’s right now, and frankly there’s no reason he shouldn’t be the most expensive first baseman on the board. Feel free to roster him with confidence tonight. Editor’s Note – Abreu (ankle) is not expected to be in tonight’s lineup, per DonBest. David Ortiz becomes a nice pivot at similar prices across the industry.
David Ortiz – Here comes the test. He’s absolutely on fire right now. He also owns a 7-for-15 (with 4 extra base hits) career line against Scherzer. However, Scherzer is a great pitcher. What gives tonight? I’m not sure but I think these factors make Ortiz a tasty GPP option if you want to take a little calculated risk in a big tournament this evening. If you’re in a cash game or not feeling as adventurous, Chris Davis is in a great spot against Jeremy Guthrie who allows a .292 BA to left-handed hitters this season.
SECOND BASE
Anthony Rendon – Put him on all your lineups tonight. 100% of them. He’s hitting .395 with a 1.073 OPS against left-handed pitching this year and has seen somewhat of a dip in price over the past week or so across the DFS industry. There’s not a single measure out there that points to a poor game from Rendon tonight. If it doesn’t work out, chalk it up to random MLB variance. Unless you are stacking a team other than the Nats in a GPP, I don’t see a reason to roster anyone else at second base today. Rendon stands alone.
Chase Utley – If you want to ignore me about Rendon, Utley does have a favorable matchup against Simon in a hitters’ park. The Rockies touched up Simon for several home runs last weekend so there is some upside appeal with Utley tonight. I won’t be playing him over Rendon but can see the merit if you want to be contrarian.
THIRD BASE
Nolan Arenado – The Rockies are back at home and facing a completely awful lefty pitcher in Eric Stults. Stults has shown absolutely nothing this year and I can’t imagine that getting much better at Coors Field. The ownership percentage on the Rockies bats tonight will be outrageously high, and there is some merit to fading them in GPP’s, but it’s very hard to do in cash games. Arenado has had success against Stults in a limited past sample size, but all the factors are in the budding young star’s favor tonight.
Pablo Sandoval – The Panda is currently riding a modest six-game hitting streak and has quietly brought his average up from the depths of the unknown to over .200 for the season. Henderson Alvarez is hit-or-miss with his stuff and is definitely hittable. The Giants offense is peaking right now and this might not be a bad time to continue to buy low on a proven hitter that remains available at a discount.
SHORTSTOP
Troy Tulowitzki – Tulowitzki is INSANELY expensive but you need to decide if you want to be the one to fade him on a possible double dong night. Personally, I don’t think I’m going to take him but I can’t deny he’s the top potential scorer with mega upside tonight. I will gladly take the huge savings on virtually every site and drop down to Hanley Ramirez against the lefty Miley.
Ian Desmond – Desmond is going a decent job of driving in runs for the Nationals and seems to get his hits when they count. As a result, his peripheral stats tell a different story than his .226 batting average. However you slice up his current numbers, he’s in general a better hitter than he’s shown thus far and I expect success for some of the right handed batters for the Nationals against Niese today.
OUTFIELD
Matt Kemp – Kemp should safely be in the lineup as one of the Dodger outfielders tonight against Miley since he bats right handed and has a great history of success against the Diamondbacks hurler. He is 6-for-18 lifetime with a pair of home runs and makes a solid option as one of your top outfield bats.
George Springer – Finally, we are starting to see what all the hype was about when this kid first came into the big leagues. He’s stinging the ball right now and profiles as an above average hitter against left handed pitching. Jose Quintana is not an overpowering pitcher by any means so that should limit Springer’s exposure to the strikeout tonight as that seems to be his biggest weakness. Without a doubt, he is my favorite value bat on the board tonight.
NOTE – I also like Scott Van Slyke as a value bat if he is in the Dodger lineup tonight as he has great past success against Wade Miley and hits lefties very well.
Charlie Blackmon – Even lefties get in on the action against Stults. I wouldn’t be afraid of the L/L matchup as LHB are hitting almost .330 against Stults. Blackmon comes at a nice discount to teammate Carlos Gonzalez and I’ll be targeting him as #2 Rockies bat behind Arenado given the price of a guy like Tulowitzki.
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