MLB Daily Punts: Monday, April 7th
I have to say, I was a bit caught off guard by the fact that the NBA has exactly ZERO games scheduled for tonight, which sorely disappoints me. However, this means you get the MLB version of punt plays today and since most of the action is happening during the day, this is being written on Sunday night which is important because it means I don’t have access to any of the teams lineups. It may turn out that one or two of these plays ends up not getting the start, but you can stay up to date via our lineup alerts or through our lineups page.
We originally had nine games on tonight’s schedule, but the Phillies/Brewers game has already been postponed due to weather as of early Sunday night. It’s rare you see a game called off this early, but it leaves us with just eight games to choose from, half of which will be played during the day. That may not be the only game that gets rained out either (San Diego/Cleveland and Tampa Bay/Kansas City both look like they could have some weather concerns as of Sunday night, so keep an eye on the situation throughout the afternoon). It looks like the Chicago/Colorado game in Coors should be the most popular target with hitters tonight, with the Boston lineup looking like a solid option as well. For each player I list below, I’ll include their prices (from FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftStreet) on sites where I’m targeting them.
Catchers
Wilin Rosario ($4,522 on DS) – He’s among the highest priced catchers on FanDuel and DraftKings, but he’s among the cheapest on DraftStreet. These are the kinds of discrepancies you can take advantage of on DS with players that have struggled out of the gate, and Rosario is certainly not the only stud that’s priced like a punt play on DraftStreet today. Targeting this game seems like a very safe way to go (especially for late-game only leagues) due to some weather concerns in other places, and it’s always nice to take advantage of two below average pitchers facing off in Coors.
John Jaso ($2,600 on FD, $4,942 on DS, $3,100 on DK) – Jaso will likely draw the start with right-handed Kevin Correia on the hill for Minnesota, and that’s a match-up he should be able to take advantage of. Jaso sees basically all of his playing time against RHP and his .282 BA and .803 OPS against right-handers last season gives me reason for optimism against a pitcher that allowed lefties to hit nearly .300 against him in 2013 (Correia finished the season with a .295 BAA vs. lefties to go along with an OPS of .806). Update – Jaso will not start today so the A’s will roll out Derek Norris against a righty, something they don’t do very often. I’m not targeting Norris today but the match-up with Kevin Correia isn’t necessarily a bad one.
A.J. Pierzynski ($2,800 on FD, $4,978 on DS, $3,400 on DK) – He’s had a slow start in 2014 but he’s going to break out of it sooner or later, and he’ll have a good opportunity to get things going tonight against Tanner Scheppers. If you can remember back to opening day, Scheppers was the pitcher that got lit up by the Phillies offense, and the Boston bats are a little scarier then what the Phillies roll out. I’m not targeting Pierzynski in cash games but I can get behind him as a GPP play in a game that should be high-scoring if the weather holds up.
First Base
Chris Colabello ($2,500 on FD, $4,020 on DS) – There is not much in the way of value first basemen today, and Colabello is about as cheap as I’m willing to go on FanDuel. He’s actually outfield eligible on DS, but the price on him over there becomes really appealing if he’s hitting in the middle of the order. He should get the start today with lefty Scott Kazmir on the hill, and he looks like a great bet to pay off his price tag on FD and DS if he’s hitting anywhere in the top six of the lineup.
Nick Swisher ($2,900 on FD, $5,829 on DS) – If you don’t want to scrape the bottom of the barrel with Colabello, Swisher is a little more expensive but offers more safety (EDIT: Weather looks like it could be a serious issue in Cleveland today, so I would feel more comfortable staying away from this one in cash games). He’ll be hitting from the right side of the plate (where he’s had better numbers over the last few seasons) against Robbie Erlin, and I don’t see Erlin faring very well on the road against the Indians. Swisher should get in on the scoring and he’s a very safe H2H/50-50 play in late-game leagues, but only if the weather turns around.
Brandon Moss ($3,500 on DK, $3,300 on FD) – Moss isn’t really a punt play, but he’s priced in the mid-to-low tier and I really like him as a GPP option against Kevin Correia. As I mentioned with John Jaso, Correia struggles with lefties and he also struggles with the long-ball (he allowed 24 last season), which is a nice combination for Moss in tournaments. I don’t really trust him in a cash game because he’s prone to strikeouts and it’s very possible the Twins throw lefty relievers at him late in the game (which will lead to him getting pulled), but he’s capable of a big night with one swing of the bat.
Just as a side note, Chris Davis, Joey Votto and Prince Fielder are all priced right around $6,500 on DraftStreet, which is a great price to get that kind of talent at. All three are very nice options over there today and I’d play one of them before outright punting the first base position. Mike Napoli and Jose Abreu (both $3,400) are nice mid-priced options on FanDuel.
Second Base
D.J. LeMahieu ($2,200 on FD, $4,784 on DS) – LeMahieu is a very good way to get a minimum priced player into your lineup on FanDuel that actually has some upside. He’s playing in the game that will probably end up as the highest scoring of the night and the second base position isn’t pretty today unless you’re paying up. LeMahieu hasn’t gotten off to a good start this season but if he’s in the lineup then he’s worth a look for FanDuel’s late slate.
Jedd Gyorko ($4,385 on DS) – Gyorko’s price is all over the place tomorrow depending where you play; he’s relatively expensive on DraftKings and FanDuel but he’s priced right around $4K on DraftStreet. He’s really been struggling so far this season but he showed enough last season for me to have confidence that he’s going to turn it around soon. I wouldn’t get too invested in the Padres offense but as far as second base on DraftStreet goes, Gyorko is a great cap-saving option with upside. Again, keep a close eye on the weather in Cleveland if you want to target this game.
I don’t really like any of the cheap second basemen on DraftKings, so I’ll probably just end up paying for Pedroia or rolling with Jed Lowrie or Brian Dozier in the mid-tier. Both Lowrie and Dozier have plus match-ups and I can get behind playing either one in early leagues.
Third Base
Josh Donaldson ($5,236 on DS) – Donaldson is another DraftStreet-only selection, since his slow start has led to a severely depressed price. This isn’t really the ideal scenario for Donaldson (he’s a better target hitting at home against a lefty, and the conditions are exactly the opposite today), but Correia just isn’t a very good pitcher and I have a hard time imagining him shutting down the A’s offense. Correia allowed right-handers to bat .299 against him last season with a .792 OPS, so I’ll take Donaldson hitting in the middle of the order at the reduced price on DraftStreet. I don’t have a problem fading him on FanDuel and DraftKings where he takes up a larger portion of your cap space.
Trevor Plouffe ($3,100 on DK, $3,200 on FD) – He’s actually not all that cheap today but I like the match-up with Scott Kazmir. Plouffe is only really playable with a left-hander on the hill and if you’re playing in the early-only leagues on FanDuel or DraftKings, Plouffe makes a nice GPP play at home against Kazmir. I’d imagine that Kazmir will be a fairly popular pitching selection so if Plouffe tags him for a few hits or a big fly, you’ll be in a nice spot in tournaments.
David Freese is also an option on FanDuel at DraftKings in the mid-to-low price tier if he’s hitting in the middle of the lineup. On DraftStreet, Carlos Santana ($5,702) is sitting at a very intriguing price-tag and he’s a nice play in any format. Update – Freese is not in Monday’s starting lineup, so make sure he’s not in any of yours either. Ian Stewart will get the call at third and he’s in play for minimum price over at FanDuel.
Shortstop
Everth Cabrera ($4,732 on DS) – At under $5K on DraftStreet, Cabrera is the best dollar for dollar play at shortstop on the board (weather permitting). He’s as big of a threat for a stolen base as anyone in baseball and Corey Kluber is definitely not a match-up to be afraid of, so I’ll be rolling him out in a heavy dose of my cash and GPP lineups on DS. I don’t have a problem playing him on FD or DK, but the prices on those sites aren’t nearly as appealing.
Jed Lowrie ($3,200 on FD, $3,800 on DK) – I had a really hard time finding any value I liked at shortstop for either the early or late slate, and nothing ended up standing out. Shortstop is one of my favorite spots to punt in general and it’s possible some value could appear when lineups are released, but if there aren’t any surprises I’d just pay up a bit for Lowrie (on FD and DK) and play it safe. He’s a fixture in the heart of the A’s order and the match-up with Correia is obviously a good one, so there isn’t much not to like with him today.
Outfield
Charlie Blackmon ($3,200 on DK, $2,900 on FD) – Blackmon was a combined 9-for-10 between Friday and Saturday’s games, so I doubt he’ll be left out of the lineup with a right-hander on the hill for the White Sox. A match-up with Felipe Paulino puts all of the Rockies bats into play, and Blackmon would be one of the best targets if he finds himself in the leadoff spot. Paulino has actually been a reverse splits pitcher if you combine his stats from the last three years, but he’s not all that great against hitters from either side of the plate so I don’t think you need to hold back on your Rockies exposure tonight.
Allen Craig ($5,701 on DS) – Craig is another one of the DraftStreet specific plays that I’m considering as a price-point option against left-hander Tony Cingrani. You won’t find Craig priced this low for too long and targeting him against lefties has been the way to go the past few seasons. He’s too good of a hitter to stay cold for too long.
Grady Sizemore ($2,700 on FD) – Sizemore’s price on FanDuel still seems a little low given the opportunity he’s received thus far and I’ll consider him at this price against a right-hander as long as he’s hitting somewhere between the 1 through 6 spots in the order. Boston should beat up on Scheppers and I like all of the left-handed Boston bats, but I don’t have a problem targeting any of the righties either. As long as the weather looks like it will hold up, you’ll want to get at least a few of the Red Sox bats in your lineups.
Sam Fuld, David Lough and Brett Gardner are all cheap on a number of sites today and each will be leading off with the traditional splits in their favor. Getting one (or more) of these guys into a lineup will help you spend elsewhere.