MLB Daily Punts: OPENING DAY!
What’s up Grinders, hopefully you’re all as excited as I am about opening day and the start of the MLB regular season! The marathon that will last for about the next six months will feature many highs and lows for your lineups, so it’s important to keep a level head throughout the season and to understand that you can’t judge your performance over the course of one day or one week. Now that we’re through with the opening day disclaimer, here’s a quick breakdown of MLB Daily Punts for those who aren’t familar: I’ll include a few players at each position that can not only give you some salary relief, but can also produce at a higher level then their price dictates. I haven’t settled on an exact price cutoff for what is considered a “punt,” but I’ll set a criteria after I get a few of these under my belt for the 2014 season.
As usual on opening day, the games start at 1:05 EST and we have four games being played under the lights in addition to the nine day games. Since almost every team is rolling out their ace today, I won’t include any pitchers in today’s article, but I’ll include a few cheap options on day’s where there aren’t a ton of high-priced pitchers to choose from. Opening day is full of huge GPP’s on FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftStreet, so I’ll stick to those three sites when referencing salaries. Just as a disclaimer, I write this article early without the ability to see team lineups, and value almost always emerges once lineups start to come out; subscribe to our MLB lineup alerts for up to the minute lineup updates where we’ll highlight emerging value and breakdown how each lineup change affects that night’s outlook. The RotoGrinders Twitter feed will also be a good source of information throughout the year.
Catchers
Alex Avila – $3,200 on FD, $3,300 on DK, $5,683 on DS – Avila had a disappointing 2013 campaign, hitting for the lowest average of his five-year career (.227) and his WAR (wins above replacement) went from 4.9 in 2011 to 2.2 in 2012 and all the way down to 0.7 last season. In case your not a big on sabermetrics, that type of decline is not something you want to see from a player that should be entering the peak years of his career (Avila is now 27). However, all of this isn’t such a bad thing for us, because his struggles have led to a fairly depressed opening day price and I don’t mind the match-up with James Shields on a day with a large number of aces on the hill. Avila will slot into the 6-spot in the lineup behind Miggy, Victor Martinez and Austin Jackson, and he’ll have all the opportunity in the world to increase his RBI total from last season (47) if he can hold onto that spot against right-handers. There aren’t many appealing dirt cheap options on opening day, and on most sites I’m not finding anyone priced below Avila that I’d want to roll out. It’s easier to find dirt-cheap value when teams are giving the starting catcher a rest, but that won’t be the case on the first day of the season.
A.J. Pierzynski – $3,100 on FD, $5,109 on DS – This one depends a bit more on where Pierzynski hits in the lineup; the Red Sox lineup hasn’t been released as of this writing and I’ve seen a few different potential opening day lineups for the Sox, some which feature A.J. in the 6-hole and others that have him hitting at the bottom of the order. I’d be more willing to pay the mid-tier price tag for Pierzynski if he hits sixth behind the likes of Pedroia, Ortiz and Napoli, since Boston should be one of the higher scoring teams of the day with Chris Tillman on the mound for Baltimore. Tillman made some nice strides last year but he still gives up too many home runs, especially at home (24 HR’s in 109 innings), where he’ll be pitching today. Pierzynski isn’t known as a home run hitter but his odds of going deep certainly improve in this match-up, and he should see a few RBI opportunities if he can find his way into the six or seven spot in the order.
Also receiving consideration: John Jaso (my only concern with is weather, so stay up-to-date if you plan on playing him; I would only roster him on late-swap sites since the game is one of the last of the night)
First Base
Ryan Howard – $3,200 on FD, $6,223 on DS – Howard is the ultimate GPP play, especially on sites that deduct points for strikeouts. He can just as easily saddle you with an 0-4 (with 3 K’s) as he can with a big home run that shoots you up the leaderboard, so he’s not a guy I’ll be targeting too heavily in cash games, except on FanDuel at just $3,200. The Phillies have perhaps the best opening day pitching match-up with Yu Darvish on the DL and Tanner Scheppers stepping into his place, and Howard feasts on right-handed pitching compared to his numbers against lefties. He’s doing business in a hitter friendly park, and if you’re going to stack the Phillies today, make sure you don’t forget about the Big Piece (Howard’s nickname for all of you non-Philadelphians). He’ll be in the clean up spot and should see a few at-bat’s with RBI opportunities, and a big fly is never out of the question with Howard (unfortunately, neither is a strikeout).
Brandon Belt – $3,600 on DK, $6,394 on DS – This pick is more DraftKings specific, since the $3,600 price tag over there seems too low given the match-up. He’s expected to hit second tonight, right in front of Sandoval, Posey and Pence, and the match-up with Brandon McCarthy represents one of the best on the board. Belt has always been better against righties and I think he’s a nice cash game and tournament option thanks to the bargain price on DraftKings. He’s playable on DraftStreet and FanDuel at basically the same price as Ryan Howard, but I’d prefer Howard if deciding between the two (especially in GPP’s).
Also receiving consideration: Adam Dunn (GPP-only)
Second Base
Neil Walker – $3,000 on FD, $5,797 on DS, $3,900 on DK – Walker is typically towards the top of my list when I’m looking for cheap second basemen, and he fits the bill nicely today. He’s not coming at an extreme value but he’s still priced in the low-to-mid tier and he’s typically on my radar when he’s facing a righty, as he’s been absolutely awful against lefties when hitting from the right side of the plate. I don’t believe in spring stats but he’s put up pretty good numbers during exhibition play and after a relatively disappointing 2013 season, it’s at least mildly comforting that he should have some confidence heading into opening day. Walker hit all 16 of his home runs last season against RHP and finished the season with a .295 average at home compared to .207 on the road, so the conditions are all in Walker’s favor today.
Also receiving consideration: Joaquin Arias (it’s a complete punt play and he’s only playable at minimum price, but he’s hitting 7th in one of the better match-ups of the day)
Third Base
Pedro Alvarez – $5,874 on DS – He’s not a punt play on most sites, but you’re crazy if you don’t get Alvarez into at least a GPP lineup or two on DraftStreet. Alvarez is a good deal cheaper then the elite options and on DS and if he has a big night, you’ll be way behind the 8-ball because I’d imagine Alvarez will be a popular play on DS due to a few factors (other then the low price); he’s facing a right-handed pitcher (off which he hit 33 of his 36 HR’s last season), and he tends to have a bit more pop in his bat during day games. He’s one of those rare guys that you specifically target when he’s playing during the day in hopes of getting a home run out of him, and I’ll be on that bandwagon tomorrow. He’s a nice option in both cash games and tournaments on DraftStreet at $5,874.
Cody Asche – $2,900 on FD, $4,373 on DS, $3,300 on DK – The Phillies are one of the teams I’m making sure I have some exposure to, since they get arguably the best match-up of the day with Tanner Scheppers on the hill and most of their lineup fares better against RHP. Asche doesn’t hit high in the lineup (I’d expect him to hit 7th or 8th today), but he looked much better against right-handed pitching last season and he should see a few AB’s with runners on base today in a hitters ballpark. I like the price for him on all three major sites and it’s a way to get cheap exposure to what should be a potent lineup today.
Also receiving consideration: Nick Castellanos, Trevor Plouffe (GPP-only)
Shortstop
Brad Miller – $2,800 on FD, $3,100 on DK – Miller won the starting shortstop job over Nick Franklin thanks to a scorching hot spring, and he should find himself atop the Mariners batting order tonight against Jered Weaver. Miller came up during the second half of last season and had a few hot streaks that led to him being a fairly popular play at times, but I’m guessing the majority of the field will be overlooking him today. He’s underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings even with a tough match-up, and I don’t think there is a better way to punt the SS spot on either of those sites. There are a few options I’d prefer over him on DraftStreet, which we’ll get to now.
J.J. Hardy – $6,082 on DS – Hardy has a bit more upside then Miller with Jon Lester opposing the O’s today, so I’d prefer him at a slight discount to Miller on DS (but I’m using them both if I’m playing multiple lineups). Although the splits didn’t show it at times last year, Hardy has been better against left-handed pitching throughout his career and he’s one of the right-handed Baltimore bats I like in the match-up with Lester. I’d expect him to hit somewhere between the two and five spot in the order, which should lead to a few RBI opportunities and Hardy’s power gets a boost with a lefty on the hill.
Also receiving consideration: Xander Bogaerts
Outfield
Daniel Nava – $5,875 on DS, $3,000 on FD – Nava should be hitting near the top of the order against a right-hander that has trouble with the long-ball, so I love his upside for the price on both FanDuel and DraftStreet. This game should be among the highest scoring of the day since neither starting pitcher is really considered an “ace,” and Nava has fared much better against RHP’s despite the fact that he’s a switch hitter. He hit .322 against RHP last season (including 10 of his 12 HR’s) compared to a .252/.311/.336 slash line against lefties, so there isn’t much not to like in his match-up today. He’ll be on a heavy dose of both my cash game and tournament lineups on FanDuel especially.
Domonic Brown – $3,000 on DK – I’m a little confused as to why Brown is so cheap on DraftKings, but I won’t complain since I’d want him on most of my personal lineups at this price. I can’t really find much of a reason not to roster Brown at this price; he’s facing a right-hander (not to mention one of the least-proven hurlers taking the mound today) in a hitters ballpark, and he’s on one of the teams I’m making sure I stack in a few GPP lineups. Brown should be slotted into the six-hole today and I think you need to have some exposure to him on DK if you’re rolling out multiple lineups, and I don’t mind him ending up on your main cash game lineup either.
Grady Sizemore – $2,200 on FD, $3,000 on DK, $5,913 on DS – Sizemore’s price on FanDuel makes him a near must-play if he finds himself hitting either 1st or 2nd against Chris Tillman and the Orioles. He earned the starting CF gig with a strong spring and if you can think back a few years, Sizemore was one of the best fantasy outfielders in the game with what looked like a bright future. Injuries derailed him a bit but he’s still got the talent, and I don’t see how you can ignore him for $2,200 on FanDuel if he’s slotted in near the top of the order against a righty with big fly issues. I don’t mind him on DK or DS either, but the price on FD is just far more appealing and he absolutely cannot be ignored at $2,200.
David DeJesus – $2,600 on FD, $5,331 on DS – Anytime you can find a leadoff hitter in a potent lineup at a cheap price, it’s never a bad idea to slot him into your cash game lineups. These types of players offer safety because they are typically guaranteed a nice number of at-bats and if the price is low enough, they really only need to rack up a hit and a run scored to pay off their salary, and the upside is much greater. DeJesus is a little different because he can end up getting the hook if the opposing manager decides to throw a lefty at him, but that’s not something you should weigh too heavily when deciding whether or not to roster a player like him. The big reason I like DeJesus today has a lot to do with the opposing pitcher (knuckleballer R.A. Dickey); there’s a theory that knuckleball pitchers like Dickey can struggle when pitching in domes because they can’t get the same type of movement on the ball, and for the most part I buy into that. I think the Rays make one of the more sneaky stacks of the night and they are a team I definitely want some exposure to in both cash games and tournaments.
Also receiving consideration: Junior Lake, Denard Span, Avisail Garcia