Covering the Bases: Monday, June 12
STLCardinals84, one of the best tournament players in the game, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Monday, Grinders! Cheese is going to be out for a couple of days for his annual summer music camp, so you’re stuck with me for this Monday and Tuesday. We’ll try to uncover some winners in the process!
We get the week kick started with a relatively mild seven game slate, and it doesn’t look awfully exciting at first glance. However, everyone is dealing with the same player pool, so that’s no reason for me to complain. Let’s dig in and find some MLB DFS picks for the start of a new work week.
Monday Night Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
The Top Options
Zach Eflin vs. A’s
Logan Webb vs. Cardinals
Bryce Miller vs. Marlins
Jesus Luzardo vs. Mariners
James Paxton vs. Rockies
We don’t have much in the way of elite pitching tonight, with no designated ‘ace’ types on the mound. However, that’s not to say that we can’t see some strong games out of a few of these top options. As usual, here’s a peek at their 2023 data:
Eflin – 2.97 ERA, 3.07 xFIP, 26% K, 4% BB
Webb – 3.09 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 25% K, 5% BB
Miller – 4.46 ERA, 4.29 xFIP, 22% K, 3% BB
Luzardo – 3.79 ERA, 3.64 xFIP, 28% K, 7% BB
Paxton – 3.81 ERA, 3.43 xFIP, 33% K, 8% BB
We can basically separate these pitchers into a “safe” bucket (Eflin, Webb, Miller) and an “upside” bucket (Luzardo, Paxton).
Let’s start with the safer arms. Eflin, Webb, and Miller all have very low walk rates and great command. Miller’s metrics hang behind the others, and he has much more of a fly ball lean. He also has to face a hot Marlins team that continues to exceed expectations. Miller is an easy “X” button for me in this spot, as he doesn’t come at any sort of material discount from the others.
You could basically say that Eflin and Webb are the same pitcher. Both have ERA and xFIP marks right around 3.00 with 25-26% strikeout rates and 4-5% walk rates. The matchup is obviously going to be the difference maker for many, with Eflin facing the A’s and Webb facing the Cardinals. I would expect Eflin to carry higher ownership. That makes this conversation interesting, as the A’s are arguably playing better than the Cardinals right now, as Oakland went 5-1 against the Pirates and Brewers last week. Eflin is your cash game choice, but Webb is the GPP pivot, especially if his pOWN% ends up low.
I expect both Eflin and Webb to be solid this evening, but you can certainly make a case to pivot to Luzardo and/or Paxton for upside. Luzardo is slowly trending toward ace-level status, and his strikeouts have ticked up to 28% this year. The Mariners quietly rank among the league’s worst teams against LHP this year, grading out in the bottom five in team wOBA and top five in team strikeout rate.
Paxton has also shown no rust after missing a ton of time due to injury, as he has immediately returned with elite strikeout stuff in 2023. He benefits as a huge home favorite against a Colorado offense that is absolutely woeful away from Coors Field.
I really like both Luzardo and Paxton tonight, and they are my two favorite pitchers in GPP builds, with Webb third and Eflin fourth in those rankings. In fact, those four pitchers might make up my entire pool this evening. Why is that? Read on.
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