Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks for Saturday, August 17th
Long-time grinder, stlcardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Saturday, Grinders! The middle of August is upon us, and teams are suddenly sitting with only about 40 games left in the regular season. It’s always amazing to see how fast the end of the season can creep up on us.
As for today, we have our usual split slate Saturday on tap. However, we once again have a Saturday that is skewed toward the evening slate. We have a small early docket of five games, with eight games on the main slate this evening. In addition, FanDuel has split up the early games into two very small slates, so I will focus on the DraftKings slate for the early analysis. I will offer a quick look at those five early games, but I will focus the article today on the larger night slate. As always, you can check out our MLB lineup optimizer for the latest projections.
It’s also worth noting that you should keep an eye on our MLB Weather page for updates, as Kevin Roth has designated a lot of games as YELLOW as of his early morning update. I am going to write this article presuming that every game goes without a hitch, but keep an eye out for potential issues.
Let’s dig in and see what this Saturday has to offer for MLB DFS picks!
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Saturday Afternoon Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
Luis Castillo vs. Pirates
Zac Gallen vs. Rays
Carlos Rodon vs. Tigers
Justin Steele vs. Blue Jays
Chris Bassitt vs. Cubs
Luis Severino vs. Marlins
Again, this is a pretty strong group of six that we can choose from. As usual, I will start with a look at the 2024 data:
Castillo – 3.40 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, 24% K, 7% BB
Gallen – 3.69 ERA, 3.73 xFIP, 22% K, 8% BB
Rodon – 4.18 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, 26% K, 8% BB
Steele – 3.16 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, 24% K, 7% BB
Bassitt – 4.30 ERA, 4.28 xFIP, 22% K, 9% BB
Severino – 4.17 ERA, 4.38 xFIP, 19% K, 8% BB
Even though we have a solid group of real life pitchers going on this slate, you can see that we really don’t have a dominant DFS ace. Luis Castillo and Zac Gallen have both seen their strikeouts dip this season. Carlos Rodon actually has the highest strikeout rate of the group, but he also has a relatively unexciting 4.32 xFIP and 4.18 ERA.
Luis Severino and Chris Bassitt would normally be my first cuts based on the data, but they both have DFS-friendly matchups today. Severino gets to face an impatient, underwhelming Marlins lineup, while Bassitt is facing the Cubs with a very favorable pitching wind at Wrigley Field. That keeps both of them in the conversation, especially since you can save some money with Bassitt at $8,300 and Severino all the way down at $7,000.
Really, all of these pitchers have plus matchups though. Castillo is facing a Pirates team that had lost 10 games in a row prior to last night and really doesn’t offer much offensive thump. Justin Steele often pitches deep into games and gets to face the depleted Blue Jays with the aforementioned favorable wind at Wrigley Field. Rodon is facing a hit-or-miss Tigers team that is playing more of their younger players these days.
It’s a weird slate where I have no issue letting salary be my guide. If I am playing a Yankees stack, I am probably going to need some salary relief, so I have no issue playing Severino at $7,000 as my SP2. I don’t even have a problem using a Bassitt / Severino combination even though they are technically my #5 and #6 pitchers out of this group. I simply don’t see a slate-breaking pitching score happening. If I am ranking the top arms, I’m going with Castillo > Steele > Rodon > Gallen, but it’s a very tight split among them. Gallen worries me the most because he left his last start with cramping, and they will obviously be keeping a close eye on him today as well.
AFTERNOON PITCHING SUMMARY
Even though this is a pretty small five game slate, we have a decent amount of viable pitching options. Here is how I am ranking my interest level:
1) Luis Castillo
2) Justin Steele
3) Carlos Rodon
4) Zac Gallen
5) Luis Severino
6) Chris Bassitt
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