Covering the Bases: Saturday, July 29
STLCardinals84, one of the best tournament players in the game, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Saturday, Grinders! This is the first time all season that we haven’t had a significant “early” slate on a Saturday. I enjoyed an extra hour of sleep, and it was simply glorious. However, I woke up to a completely demolished trampoline in my backyard as a result of severe storms last night, and that was most definitely not glorious. Thankfully, there was no other major damage. It could have been much worse.
We have a very healthy 13-game slate to look forward to as we get the weekend kick-started, and it’s a slate that is more heavily skewed toward offense. Most of the top pitchers, though talented, have been struggling of late. It’s time to dig in. Let’s see what this slate has to offer for MLB DFS picks!
Saturday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
Top Tier Pitching
Aaron Nola vs. Pirates
Yu Darvish vs. Rangers
James Paxton vs. Giants
Bailey Ober vs. Royals
These are the top pitchers that we have tonight, with the first three having a long track record of success and Ober being added to this tier with a solid 2023 campaign. As usual, let’s peek at the 2023 data:
Nola – 4.25 ERA, 3.76 xFIP, 25% K, 6% BB
Darvish – 4.80 ERA, 3.91 xFIP, 25% K, 8% BB
Paxton – 3.46 ERA, 3.54 xFIP, 29% K, 7% BB
Ober – 2.76 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, 25% K, 5% BB
Let me actually discuss these in the reverse order from what I have them listed. Bailey Ober has sparkling surface numbers and a great K/BB ratio this season. It would stand to reason that he is an elite option in a matchup against the woeful Royals. However, Ober checks in at an elevated price tag of over $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and his advanced metrics suggest negative regression. He has benefited from a sub-.260 BABIP and a low HR/FB rate. Now, the Royals probably aren’t the team that is going to do the damage against him, so you can still make a case for the play. I do think he’s reasonably safe, but it’s not like the Twins allow him to get to 100+ pitches very often, and there just isn’t much of a ceiling when you factor in the price.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
