Covering The Bases: Saturday, May 11th
Long-time grinder, STLCardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Saturday, Grinders! We have the usual split slate on this Saturday, but the start times are more condensed than usual. Given that context, we actually have a day where all the slates align on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Those are always good days from a content writing perspective. The day offers us six early games that all start around 4 PM Eastern, with both sites ignoring the singular game that starts an hour before that. We then have a seven game main slate starting around 7 PM Eastern.
This should also be a fun day of baseball, as we have the debut of star pitching prospect Paul Skenes along with the return of some previously injured pitchers. There also does not seem to be a major weather concern out there today with the exception of a couple of yellow ratings from Kevin Roth. Of course, one of them comes in the hyped Paul Skenes game. Regardless, it should be a great Saturday of baseball!
Let’s dig in and see what this slate has to offer!
Saturday Afternoon Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
This is a really fascinating afternoon slate of pitching options. We have the “ace” of the slate in Max Fried. We have the consistent production of Nestor Cortes. We have the debut of the mega-prospect Paul Skenes. We have Jesus Luzardo and Justin Steele returning from injury. There’s just a lot to discuss here. First, here are the options that you could consider viable based on their talent and matchups today:
Max Fried vs. Mets
Nestor Cortes vs. Rays
Paul Skenes vs. Cubs
Justin Steele vs. Pirates
Jesus Luzardo vs. Phillies
John Means vs. Diamondbacks
Zack Littell vs. Yankees
Taijuan Walker vs. Marlins
Christian Scott vs. Braves
You will notice that I listed nine pitchers here. There are only six games on the early slate… so I have listed nine of the twelve available options. What this means is that we can afford to be picky with our choices. That is something important to note as we go through the analysis. Here’s a peek at the 2024 data so far:
Fried – 4.23 ERA, 3.32 xFIP, 20% K, 9% BB
Cortes – 3.72 ERA, 3.84 xFIP, 24% K, 4% BB
Skenes – Major league debut
Steele – Has only pitched 9 1/3 innings due to injury
Luzardo – 6.58 ERA, 4.35 xFIP, 24% K, 12% BB
Means – Has only pitched 7 innings due to injury
Littell – 3.00 ERA, 2.93 xFIP, 26% K, 3% BB
Walker – Has only pitched 12 2/3 innings due to injury
Scott – Second major league start
There’s a lot to unpack here. Max Fried is the most established ace in this group, though he has not had the strongest start to 2024. His viability hinges on how much you value the longer term data compared to just over a month worth of data. His advanced metrics do suggest quite a bit of improvement on the horizon, and his 2024 data still remains somewhat distorted as a result of one disaster start against Arizona. The good news is that he has logged seven strikeouts in back-to-back starts, and the 3.32 xFIP remains strong. I am a bit concerned about his dip in swinging strike rate, but I’m still willing to trust him in a matchup against a mediocre Mets lineup.
If you simply look at the 2024 data in isolation, the two best pitchers this year have been Nestor Cortes and Zack Littell, who will face off against each other today. Both have logged above-average strikeout rates and very low walk rates with solid overall numbers. Both of them are completely viable in all formats today, but I will give the edge to Cortes because I prefer picking on the Rays offense compared to the Yankees offense. With that said, ownership is also likely going to flow that way, and I have no problem if you pivot to Littell in GPP formats.
From there, we have a large group of pitchers with limited 2024 MLB data. Let’s start with the phenom prospect that is Paul Skenes. This is a pitcher that dominated in college, was the top overall pick, and has now dominated in the minor leagues. He logged a ridiculous 0.99 ERA and a 42.6% strikeout rate in seven Triple-A starts. Yes, he’s likely going to be a very good major league pitcher. I hate to do this, but I have to pump the brakes here. It’s not like he is debuting at a discount. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the DK slate, and he’s priced at $8,800 on FD. You are not getting a value option here. In addition, you aren’t going to be getting a ton of pitches. The Pirates have brought him along very slowly in an attempt to manage his innings, and his last two starts featured totals of 75 and 66 pitches. The Pirates are likely going to keep him in that 75-80 pitch range here, and that’s not a lot for a pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts. You are looking at a likely five-inning start, possibly six if everything breaks his way. We are also likely going to see somewhat elevated ownership here due to the hype, and it’s not like the Cubs are an “easy” matchup. I won’t fight you for playing him, especially in cash game builds, but I do not see the pitch count getting high enough to where you absolutely need him to contend in a GPP today.
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