Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks for Saturday, September 28th
Long-time grinder, stlcardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Saturday, Grinders! We have our usual split slate Saturday going today, but both FanDuel and DraftKings have offered very minimal prize pools for the early slates. As such, we are simply going to focus the article today on the 7 games occurring this evening, which has much larger prize pools on both sites.
We are at the point where motivation is a huge factor, so let me recap what is at stake before I dive in today.
The American League playoff teams are completely set. The only teams fighting for anything are the Yankees and Guardians, who are still battling to see which team will be the #1 overall seed and which team will be the #2 overall seed. Both teams play this afternoon, so this is not relevant for our purposes this evening. None of the American League games on the night slate have any playoff implications, with the exception of the interleague game between the Royals and Braves, which is relevant for the Braves. The Royals clinched their playoff spot last night by virtue of the Twins losing.
The National League is a little more complicated. The Dodgers and Phillies are still fighting for the #1 / #2 overall seeds, but the Dodgers have a magic number of 1 to clinch the top seed. The Phillies play a day game today. This is important. If the Phillies lose this afternoon, the Dodgers clinch the #1 seed before they even play tonight. If the Phillies win this afternoon, the Dodgers will still be fighting for that top seed. I will, of course, touch more on this within the article, given that the Dodgers are playing in Coors Field.
The Diamondbacks, Mets, and Braves are all in a virtual tie in the standings, with all of them sitting 16 games above .500. The Mets and Braves still have 2 extra games to play on Monday, if necessary. One of these teams is getting left out of the playoffs. It goes without saying that all of them have plenty to play for. They are also all facing opponents that have already clinched playoff spots and have no seeding left to play for (ARI vs. SD, NYM vs. MIL, and ATL vs. KC). This is fascinating, and I am going to like all 3 offenses tonight. Remember that you can always count on the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer to assist you with lineup construction.
Let’s dig in and see what this final regular season Saturday has in store for MLB DFS picks!
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Saturday Night Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
TWO RETURNING ARMS, AND NOW JUST ONE, AT THE TOP
Luis Castillo vs. A’s
Reynaldo Lopez vs. Royals
UPDATE – LUIS CASTILLO HAS BEEN SCRATCHED TONIGHT. EMERSON HANCOCK WILL START FOR THE MARINERS. THIS SLATE JUST GOT MUCH WORSE FOR PITCHING OPTIONS, AND I WILL JUST BE SKIPPING STRAIGHT INTO THE SECONDARY TIER.
We don’t have the deepest pitching slate tonight, but we have two quality arms at the top. As usual, we’ll start by looking at their numbers for the season:
Castillo – 3.64 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 24% K, 6% BB
Lopez – 2.03 ERA, 3.58 xFIP, 26% K, 8% BB
It is amazing that Reynaldo Lopez has kept his 2.03 ERA where it is for the entire season given his relatively modest underlying data, but he does a good job of keeping hitters off balance and limiting damage. It’s a testament to his ability to pitch to his strengths. However, he has been on the injured list for almost three weeks and did not have a rehab assignment. In an important game, I would be surprised to see the Braves push him in his first start back. Given his premium DFS salary tag, I don’t have much interest here.
Luis Castillo was projected to come back from the IL to start for the Mariners tonight as well, but he has been scratched. Emerson Hancock will start instead. We forge ahead in the search for pitching!
GOOD PITCHERS THAT AREN’T REALLY VIABLE
Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Rockies
Seth Lugo vs. Braves
I want to make sure I at least give a head nod to these two pitchers. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be making his fourth start back from the injured list tonight, but I can’t click his name into DFS lineups right now. He has yet to complete 5 innings in a single start since his return, he hasn’t thrown more than 80 pitches, and the Dodgers have no reason to push his limits. Maybe he gets up to 85-90 pitches tonight, but the command has been an issue, and he’s pitching in Coors Field. There’s a low ceiling given the pitch count concerns, and the risk outweighs the reward.
Seth Lugo has been exceeding expectations all year, but he still hasn’t been a high ceiling DFS option despite his results. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher, and with the Royals having clinched a playoff spot last night, they are unlikely to push him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he only throws 4 innings. Throw in a matchup against a Braves team that is still fighting for a playoff spot, and this is an easy pass.
Yamamoto is the play if you feel like you need to play one of these pitchers, but neither one will be in my pool this evening.
SECONDARY PITCHING OPTIONS
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