Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks for Sunday, July 7th
Long-time grinder, stlcardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Sunday, Grinders! Thanks to Cheese for covering on my behalf yesterday. While I certainly wish I would have been partying with Miley Cyrus somewhere in the USA, I was simply taking in a day of PGA TOUR action at the John Deere Classic. I couldn’t pass up attending a day of golf at the only event that is easily accessible to me on a 78 degree summer day. I am back in the MLB saddle for today, though!
We have a nine-game slate of baseball on tap for this Sunday, and it looks at first glance to be another balanced slate between pitching and offense. I don’t expect too many spots to garner a ton of ownership, so you will likely just be able to play the spots that you like best without worrying too much about what the field is doing.
We do not have a lot of weather concerns this afternoon, with no games having any hint of “orange” ratings in the early forecast. I am going to write the article assuming every game plays without issue, but be sure to keep an eye on our MLB Weather page that Roth updates leading up to lock for all the latest news.
Let’s dig in and see what this Sunday has to offer for MLB DFS picks!
Sunday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
TOP TIER TRIO
Tarik Skubal vs. Reds
Nathan Eovaldi vs. Rays
Reynaldo Lopez vs. Phillies
The more I start to look into it, the more I really don’t love the pitching that we have today. Alas, here are the top three pitchers on the board, and here’s a quick peek at their 2024 stats so far:
Skubal – 2.45 ERA, 2.96 xFIP, 29% K, 4% BB
Eovaldi – 3.15 ERA, 3.53 xFIP, 25% K, 8% BB
Lopez – 1.83 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 26% K, 9% BB
This has become a “do not overthink it” spot for me on this slate. The lowest xFIP of this group belongs to Tarik Skubal by more than half a run. The highest strikeout rate in this group belongs to Tarik Skubal by a full three percentage points. The lowest walk rate in this group belongs to Tarik Skubal by a wide margin.
Skubal gets a matchup against a Reds team that is middle of the pack against left-handed pitching this season, but there are some high-strikeout bats in this lineup. Skubal has a strikeout prop sitting at a healthy 7.5 right now, and that’s a full strikeout higher than Eovaldi and two higher than Lopez.
Really, the only case you can make for Eovaldi and/or Lopez ahead of Skubal is that “it’s baseball” and anything can happen, but early projection runs don’t have Skubal at insane ownership levels. I am going to make this a flag plant spot for me. Skubal is far and away my SP1, and I will be way overweight on the field with exposure to him. I have little interest in the other two aces outside of MME builds, and Eovaldi would be my second choice if I had to pick one.
SECONDARY PITCHING OPTIONS
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