Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks for Sunday, June 16th
Long-time grinder, STLCardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Sunday and Happy Fathers Day, Grinders! I hope you all have a fantastic day! We have what looks to be a super exciting MLB DFS slate as well, so this should be a fun one. There are nine games on the main DraftKings slate today, while FanDuel has added the PIT/COL game to make a ten-game main slate over there.
It doesn’t seem like there are any major weather concerns as far as postponed games go, so we should be all systems go this afternoon. Let’s dig in and see what today has in store!
Sunday Afternoon Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
THREE ACES IN SOME TOUGH MATCHUPS
Zack Wheeler vs. Orioles
Corbin Burnes vs. Phillies
Dylan Cease vs. Mets
We have three top-end pitchers going today, with the highlight obviously being the head-to-head battle between Zack Wheeler and Corbin Burnes at Camden Yards. As usual, let’s start with a peek at the 2024 data:
Wheeler – 2.16 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 28% K, 8% BB
Burnes – 2.08 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 24% K, 7% BB
Cease – 3.36 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 30% K, 7% BB
You can see that there isn’t a whole let separating these three pitchers. All of them have either 7% or 8% walk rates for the season, and their xFIP marks are all within 0.03 of each other. That’s pretty remarkable. Given this information, Dylan Cease is the logical chalk selection. With Wheeler and Burnes facing off against each other, both become less likely to earn a win, and they obviously also have to face difficult opposing offenses. Meanwhile, Cease gets to face a Mets team that still tends to disappear offensively quite often. In addition, Cease has a walk rate that would currently mark the lowest single season walk rate of his career — and that was really the only thing holding him back.
I am starting with that paragraph to let you know that Cease would be my cash game choice today if looking for the most logical SP1.
However, I am more interested in Zack Wheeler in GPP builds. The pitch count ceiling is fantastic with Wheeler, we know he’s going to go deep into games, and he generally has a great combination of safety and upside. The overall profile is rock solid across the board, and he is certainly capable of shutting down a dangerous Baltimore offense if he brings his best stuff. I think the Phillies will be very motivated to try to win this series as a “statement” win. Wheeler is my GPP SP1 over Cease, especially if Cease comes in with a significantly higher projected ownership number by the time those projections settle out.
I don’t have as much interest in Burnes with his lower strikeouts, but he will certainly make my MME GPP pool as well.
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