Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks for Sunday, June 30th
Long-time grinder, stlcardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Sunday, Grinders! We have a nine-game slate of baseball on tap for us today, and this looks to be quite a balanced slate between pitching and offense. I don’t expect too many spots to garner a ton of ownership, so you will likely just be able to play the spots that you like best without worrying too much about what the field is doing.
We do not have a lot of weather concerns this afternoon, with the exception of an early YELLOW/ORANGE rating for the Padres/Red Sox game in Boston. I am going to write the article assuming every game plays without issue, but be sure to keep an eye on our MLB Weather page that Roth updates leading up to lock for all the latest news.
Let’s dig in and see what this Sunday has to offer for MLB DFS picks!
Sunday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
TOP TIER HURLERS
Garrett Crochet vs. Rockies
Ranger Suarez vs. Marlins
Freddy Peralta vs. Cubs
Seth Lugo vs. Guardians
Hunter Greene vs. Cardinals
This is a pretty interesting mix of top tier arms, with most of them having above average matchups today, with the exception of Lugo. Let’s start with a look at the 2024 data:
Crochet – 3.05 ERA, 2.40 xFIP, 35% K, 5% BB
Suarez – 1.83 ERA, 2.75 xFIP, 26% K, 5% BB
Peralta – 4.03 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, 31% K, 8% BB
Lugo – 2.29 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 22% K, 6% BB
Greene – 3.79 ERA, 4.25 xFIP, 27% K, 10% BB
Today’s discussion has to start with Garrett Crochet. Crochet has been the one bright spot on an otherwise terrible team this season, and his metrics are fantastic across the board. His 2.40 xFIP and 2.44 SIERA actually suggest improvement from his current 3.05 ERA, and you simply cannot argue with a matchup against Colorado given his massive 35% strikeout rate and low 5% walk rate on the season. His strikeout prop sits at a whopping 9.5 right now, and there’s no denying both the high floor and ceiling in this spot.
Ranger Suarez has also been a great pitcher for the Phillies this season, but he likely won’t keep that sub-2.00 ERA forever. With that said, the Marlins likely aren’t going to be the team to make that regression set in. Suarez doesn’t have the ceiling of Crochet, but he could go very deep into this game and has an above average strikeout rate of his own. I’m not as interested on DK where Suarez is priced above Crochet, but there’s some appeal on FD if you need the $700 in savings down from Crochet.
Freddy Peralta (vs. CHC) and Hunter Greene (vs. STL) are your other two upside options. They both have command issues at times, but they make up for it with the ability to throw higher pitch counts and adding plenty of strikeouts. In fact, Greene is the only starting pitcher in baseball that is averaging more than 100 pitches per start this season. I like both of them as GPP options today, with Greene being my preferred play. He vomited on the mound and on our DFS lineups in his last start, but he should get back on track today against a Cardinals offense that has gone back in the tank over the past week.
Seth Lugo simply isn’t a DFS option today. He’s overpriced, he’s facing the Guardians, and his strikeout rate is significantly lower than every other top-end pitcher going today. No thanks.
SECONDARY PITCHING OPTIONS
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