Covering The Bases: Sunday, May 19th
Long-time grinder, STLCardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Sunday, Grinders! We have another fun Sunday slate on tap, with eleven games on both the FanDuel and DraftKings main slates today. There are interesting options on both the pitching and hitting sides of the ledger, and I expect this to be an entertaining day of baseball. We also have two Game 7 NBA matchups to go along with the final round of a major golf championship — so it’s a great day on the sports calendar as a whole.
Let’s dig in and see what this Sunday docket has to offer for MLB DFS picks!
Sunday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
There are quite a few viable arms today, including some that we can consider aces or borderline aces. Getting a strong performance out of your pitcher(s) will be of prime importance on this slate.
TOP TIER PITCHING
Corbin Burnes vs. Mariners
Aaron Nola vs. Nationals
George Kirby vs. Orioles
Carlos Rodon vs. White Sox
Brady Singer vs. A’s
As usual, let’s start with a peek at the 2024 data:
Burnes – 2.68 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 23% K, 7% BB
Nola – 3.10 ERA, 3.33 xFIP, 24% K, 7% BB
Kirby – 3.58 ERA, 3.34 xFIP, 25% K, 3% BB
Rodon – 3.31 ERA, 4.25 xFIP, 23% K, 7% BB
Singer – 2.84 ERA, 3.32 xFIP, 25% K, 8% BB
From the data, you can see that there really isn’t a lot separating these pitchers. In fact, if you exclude Rodon from the equation, the other four all have xFIP marks that are within 0.04 of each other. That’s pretty remarkable.
Rodon is the clear outlier in this group, but he has at least looked a little more like his old self of late. In addition, he gets the benefit of a matchup against a White Sox team that has a 5.8% team walk rate, a 24.5% team strikeout rate, and a laughable .247 wOBA and .091 ISO against LHP so far in 2024. That keeps him on the radar despite his numbers lagging behind the others. I will say that given his salary tags, he is a much better option on DK at $8,400 than on FD, where he is the second most expensive pitcher on the slate.
Since the profiles are pretty similar for all the other pitchers, I am simply going to play the matchups. That leads me to Corbin Burnes as my SP1 on this slate. While he isn’t the elite strikeout ace that he used to be, his 12% swinging strike rate does suggest some improvement on the strikeout front. That could happen today against a Seattle team that has a massive, league-high 28.8% strikeout rate against RHP this year. That’s enough for me to consider Burnes the clear preferred option at the top.
I don’t have a strong preference among the others, but Aaron Nola would be my first choice. He’s always been better at home and gets a friendly matchup as a large favorite against the Nationals. I’m most worried about George Kirby, as his extreme strike throwing ways could spell more trouble than usual against a dangerous Baltimore offense. As such, I am ranking the other options as Nola > Singer > Kirby today — but Burnes remains my favorite.
SECONDARY TIER PITCHING
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