Covering The Bases: Sunday, May 5th
Long-time grinder, STLCardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Sunday, Grinders! We have another fun Sunday slate on tap, with ten games on both the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates today.
I am going to write the article as though all games will play, but we do need to note that the DET/NYY game has an early ORANGE / RED rating from Kevin Roth, and light rain is projected basically all afternoon in New York. If they decide to start the game, it should be fine to play through the rain, but they might decide not to start the game at all. This will be important to monitor given that we have two good pitchers in that game.
Let’s dig in and see what this Sunday docket has to offer for DFS!
Sunday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We have a bit more to choose from today for arms, but we have to monitor the weather in New York, where we might lose a couple of viable options. I see a clear dividing line between the top tier and everything else.
TOP TIER PITCHING – A TRIO OF ACES
Tarik Skubal vs. Yankees (Weather Pending)
Freddy Peralta vs. Cubs
Joe Ryan vs. Red Sox
As usual, I will begin with a peek at the 2024 data so far for these three pitchers:
Skubal – 1.72 ERA, 2.77 xFIP, 30% K, 4% BB
Peralta – 3.21 ERA, 2.95 xFIP, 34% K, 7% BB
Ryan – 3.38 ERA, 2.83 xFIP, 30% K, 4% BB
All three of these pitchers have been fantastic in the early going, as all of them have an xFIP under three to go along with 30%+ strikeout rates. It’s hard to go wrong with data like this.
However, I am taking a stand here. Freddy Peralta is the pitcher that I want. His stuff has been fantastic in 2024, and the walks are no longer a major issue. He gives you the highest strikeout upside of the trio, and he is in a great spot today with the weather being extremely pitcher friendly at Wrigley Field. This game has a 6.5 run total, which is not something that you see often.
When you combine Peralta’s matchup and upside with the fact that Tarik Skubal has to face the Yankees in a game that might get rained out, Peralta is the clear choice. You can make a compelling case for Joe Ryan, but I don’t think he has access to the same ceiling as Peralta from a strikeout perspective.
If Skubal doesn’t get washed out by rain, I will have exposure to all three of these pitchers, but Peralta will be the one that I am most overweight on compared to the field in my personal builds.
SECONDARY TIER PITCHING
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