Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Friday 9/26

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-10-06 15:35:56 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Well folks, we made it! This will be the last Musings for 2025, though Cards will still be here tomorrow to get you one more MLB slate in the books before we wrap it up. Whether you’ve been with me here for 10 years or 10 days, I appreciate you reading and putting up with my nonsense.

We are going out with a bit of a whimper on the pitching side tonight, with something like no aces, and the few semi aces have matchups that are less than ideal. We’re also left with even more wondering about who is still going to be trying tonight and what that will do to some of these pitch counts and lineups. My initial thought is to go with a ‘spend down at pitching’ approach, but let’s dig in and see what happens.

As for the MLB weather, there is just one game with concerns to keep an eye on – PIT/ATL.

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Friday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

We start with 9 pitchers priced at $8,000 and above on DK, and since I kind of don’t love any of them, I’m just going to list all of them and then see if anything jumps out more as I dive in. The whole slate is also a little skewed once you notice that there is a $4,000 pitcher against the Rockies, which makes it easier to be picky with spend-ups.

TOP TIER PITCHING

• Shane Bieber vs. Rays – 24.8% K, 3.6% BB, 3.57 ERA, 3.24 SIERA
• Trevor Rogers at Yankees – 24.5% K, 6.4% BB, 1.35 ERA, 3.67 SIERA
• George Kirby vs. Dodgers – 25.2% K, 5.6% BB, 4.24 ERA, 3.48 SIERA
• Noah Cameron at A’s – 20.2% K, 7.3% BB, 2.90 ERA, 4.32 SIERA
• Quinn Priester vs. Reds – 20.3% K, 7.8% BB, 3.25 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
• Emmet Sheehan at Mariners – 30.1% K, 7.7% BB, 2.86 ERA, 3.27 SIERA
• Zac Gallen at Padres – 21.8% K, 8% BB, 4.70 ERA, 4.19 SIERA
• Luis Morales vs. Royals – 21.3% K, 9% BB, 3.07 ERA, 4.46 SIERA
• Slade Cecconi vs. Rangers – 20.1% K, 5.9% BB, 4.15 ERA, 4.17 SIERA

The first thing that jumps out here is how impressive Emmet Sheehan has been in 72 innings this season. He now has a career 28.1% K rate after being an elite strikeout pitcher at every level of the minors, so I think it’s probably real. But I also think the Dodgers are done for the regular season after clinching the division but having no chance to move up any further towards home-field advantage. This leaves me thinking we’re more likely to see 4 innings than 6, though who knows – they can do whatever they want. When you add in the matchup, assuming we see a normal Seattle lineup, I just don’t love this despite how good he’s been.

The Dodgers’ potential for limiting Sheehan could also lead to a much better matchup for George Kirby if the Dodgers decide to rest their stars, which is my best guess. I think Seattle would prefer not to overdo it with Kirby heading into the playoffs, but with Seattle in the hunt for home-field advantage, I don’t think they are going to limit him if he’s pitching well and if the game is close. I won’t make any firm decisions here until we see the Dodgers’ lineup, but if there’s no Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy – or no Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, etc. – I’m going to be willing to call Kirby the SP1.

If the Dodgers don’t goof around with the lineup, then that would probably leave Shane Bieber as the SP1 if salary doesn’t matter. Bieber has a better matchup than the other aces, and Toronto still needs to win. Bieber has been real-life good in his 6 starts off of the IL, but his strikeouts have come back down to his usual level – hovering between 4-6 Ks in his last 5 starts. The most likely outcome is the same 6 innings with 2-3 runs and 4-6 strikeouts that we’ve been seeing. I’d say that’s totally fine on this slate but also not something I absolutely have to have at this salary.

I will note here that while the pricing gap is not huge, the salaries are flipped between the sites for Bieber and Kirby. They are close enough that I’d lean Bieber on FD and Kirby on DK.

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