Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Monday 8/4

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-08-04 17:03:31 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Monday! The new week kicks off with a 9-game slate where our neighbors to the north take center stage, with the Blue Jays heading to Coors Field. Some team ranked 30th in the league in scoring (out of 30, that makes them last place, I think?) just scored 30 runs in 3 games at Coors, so one would have to wonder what an actual major league team might do here. Of course, they will probably do nothing just because baseball likes to mess with us, but deciding what to do with the Blue Jays is the main decision point on this slate. Before we get to that, we’ll look through the decent pitching slate, where we have options in every price range.

There is some MLB weather to keep an eye on in the MIL/ATL game, but that game is just going to be for bats anyway, so for now, I’m planning to include that in the pool.

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Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

I’ll use the 6 pitchers priced above $8,500 on DK as the top tier, and then I will use $7,000 as the next cutoff for the mid-tier.

TOP TIER PITCHING

• Max Fried at Rangers – 23.1% K, 5.9% BB, 2.62 ERA, 3.56 SIERA
• Tyler Glasnow vs. Cardinals – 29.7% K, 12.7% BB, 3.38 ERA, 3.85 SIERA
• Sean Manaea vs. Guardians – 17 IP – 32.4% K, 5.9% BB
• Sonny Gray at Dodgers – 26.4% K, 4% BB, 4.38 ERA, 3.14 SIERA
• Quinn Priester at Braves – 20% K, 8.1% BB, 3.27 ERA, 3.85 SIERA
• Nick Lodolo at Cubs – 23.6% K, 4.6% BB, 3.09 ERA, 3.55 SIERA

Tyler Glasnow is a mystery right now. He looked amazing in his first 3 starts off the IL, posting a 23:4 K:BB ratio in 18 innings. If there was a red flag in those great starts, it was that his Stuff+ was down from it’s usual level, and his velocity has never returned quite all the way to where it was back in 2021-2022. So then, when he had the disaster start last week, the thought would be – ah ha, he’s broken still! But in fact, in the midst of that terrible start, his Stuff+ shot right back up to where it was last season. And while the velocity is not locked in, he’s been over 96 mph in all 4 of his starts off the IL. All of this tells me that he still has the elite ceiling and the last start was simply a matter of his control gone wonky, which is always a risk. Personally, I don’t view him any differently today than I did before the last start, and I still prefer him ahead of the “safer” Max Fried for DFS purposes.

With that being said, I would not argue with you one teeny tiny iota if you prefer Fried ahead of Glasnow. We can’t even say Fried doesn’t have a ceiling, last week reaching his 3rd start of the season in which he had 9+ Ks. But really, those strikeouts are an outlier, and you’re paying for the consistency and the innings that come from the high pitch count.

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