Million Dollar Musings: Monday, June 5
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Monday! We kick off a new week with a 7-game slate that starts a little earlier than usual at 6:40 PM ET. Kudos to DK and FD for both adding in the two extra games with the slightly earlier start time to give us this decent-sized slate.
We have a chalky Aaron Nola leading things off on the pitching side, and then we find a very strong, but muddled, top tier of offenses. Let’s dive in and see how we can sort out all these MLB DFS picks for this Monday night slate.
Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We have two pitchers at the top who will lead the way in projection and ownership, but as the headlines below will imply, there are some question marks.
THESE AIN’T ACES
Aaron Nola vs. Tigers – 21.5% K, 6% BB, 4.70 ERA, 4.21 SIERA
Blake Snell vs. Cubs – 24.6% K, 13.7% BB, 4.50 ERA, 4.79 SIERA
Due to the mix of matchup, past skills, name recognition, and lack of other options, Aaron Nola and Blake Snell are bound to be very popular choices tonight. In particular, Nola looks like the clear SP1, and at just $10,200 on DK and $10,000 on FD, should be massively owned. While I’m slightly higher on Nola, I just want to point out that this looks a lot like the Sandy Alcantara situation from yesterday. We have a pitcher with a long history of being an ace, at home, and in ideal matchup. However, we had a lot more good options yesterday, which made the Alcantara fade a lot easier than a Nola fade will be tonight.
Officially, I am not concerned about Nola, and I fully expect his strikeout numbers to rise from here. Even with the strikeouts down and the walks up, he still has good control and a long leash. Against a Tigers team that ranks 29th in ISO against right-handed pitching, he has a very clear path to a quality start, and we have seen the strikeouts spike at least once. Basically, I desperately want to be able to fade a heavy chalk pitcher with a 21.5% strikeout rate, but I’m not going to try and tell you anything other than he is the top pitcher on the slate.
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