Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Sunday, June 9th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Sunday! We’ve got a pitching-heavy 10-game slate starting at 1:05pm ET. There are quite a few interesting matchups with good pitchers facing good offenses that should make for some fun Sunday afternoon baseball. Let’s dive right in and see what we find.
Sunday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We start with 10 pitchers priced at $8,000 and up on DK. This list includes quite a few upside pitchers in varying degrees of matchups.
TOP TIER PITCHERS
Tarik Skubal vs. Brewers – 30.5% K, 4.6% BB, 1.97 ERA, 2.70 SIERA
Shota Imanaga at Reds – 25.9% K, 4% BB, 1.88 ERA, 3.24 SIERA
Cole Ragans vs. Mariners – 29.4% K, 7.9% BB, 3.21 ERA, 3.19 SIERA
Grayson Rodriguez at Rays – 26.4% K, 8.5% BB, 3.28 ERA, 3.68 SIERA
Jared Jones vs. Twins – 27.5% K, 5.4% BB, 3.25 ERA, 3.13 SIERA
George Kirby at Royals – 24.6% K, 2.3% BB, 4.05 ERA, 3.19 SIERA
Nathan Eovaldi vs. Giants – 26.2% K, 9.4% BB, 2.70 ERA, 3.58 SIERA
Zack Littell vs. Orioles – 22.8% K, 3.8% BB, 3.56 ERA, 3.53 SIERA
Bailey Ober at Pirates – 23.6% K, 6.3% BB, 4.94 ERA, 3.92 SIERA
Hurston Waldrep at Nationals – 1st career start
While it seems like it’s been a down year for pitchers, today’s crew would disagree. Among this group, we find only two with ERAs above 4.00, and none with SIERAs above 4.00. We’ve got multiple options above 26% strikeouts, and multiple options below 5% walk rates. We also have a child thrown in the mix making his first career start after striking out 34 batters in his last four minor league starts. It’s a lot of goodness.
There is always a case to be made for spending down at pitcher this season, but the more good pitchers we have on a slate, the more likely it is that a couple of them spike big games. We’ll sort through some of those cheaper dart throws next, but let’s see what we can do narrow down this group of aces above the $8,000 mark on DK.
While I would say that Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher on this slate, I’d also say that I’m not crazy about spending the highest salary on the slate for a guy in not a great matchup who hasn’t reached 100 pitches once all season. As elite as he is, he hasn’t posted any true “have to have it” scores. He can get to 30 DK points, as he’s done twice, but more realistically, he’s a 25-point type of play that is great if you have the salary, but officially, I’m not going out of my way for him today.
For all the good luck Shota Imanaga had early in the season, he’s been hit by bad luck in his last couple starts. The skills tell me that he is probably more George Kirby than he is Tarik Skubal or Cole Ragans. I don’t mean that as a criticism, as there is still plenty of upside here, but as with Skubal, I’m not sure he’s better than everyone else here to need to spend the salary.
Cole Ragans has very close to the same per-inning upside as Skubal, and he’s got a longer leash with a better matchup. Seattle isn’t quite as strikeout heavy against lefties, but they still have the 5th-highest K rate in the league against LHP this season. I have a slight preference for Ragans over Skubal even without the discount, so this is going to be my SP1.
Grayson Rodriguez is another good pitcher in a solid matchup. His strikeouts are not quite as consistent as the other aces, but he’s shown similar upside. To me, the salaries look just about right on DK, as the $1,000 discount from Skubal and the $600 discount from Imanaga put them all in a virtual tie. I know that’s not extremely helpful, but it is the truth. My initial lean here is that salary is important enough that I’ll have more Rodriguez than either Skubal or Imanaga.
I’m a little wary of paying $9,300 for Jared Jones on this slate. He looks legit, and I’m not by any means down on the kid. But the numbers have dropped off quite a bit from his first few starts, and he’s looked basically like a good-but-not-elite pitcher over his last five outings. I’ve got to try and make some cuts somewhere, so Jones is going to be one of those cuts for me. I have no issue with anyone ranking him higher- this is just where I land today.
Nathan Eovaldi is pitching extremely well, but he’s still just two starts off the IL, working up from 37 to 71 pitches. He was so efficient with those 71 pitches in his last start that if we assume he gets up to the 80-85 range here, he has the ability to compete with the rest of this tier. The matchup is just OK, as the Giants only have three high-strikeout bats in the projected lineup. My thought here is very similar as it was with Grayson Rodriguez. The slight discount looks just about right, and he ends up right in this same bucket with these other aces. I prefer Rodriguez if I have the salary, but Eovaldi is in the pool.
George Kirby is awesome, and he is playable on any slate in any matchup. However, despite the strikeout spikes in his last couple starts, he still doesn’t quite match up to the higher-priced aces in realistic per-inning upside, and I have too much respect for the Royals lineup to get him into my primary pool. Like with Jared Jones, I would not argue with you at all if you have a different pool that includes Kirby, but he misses mine.
I like Zack Littell and I think he’s generally underrated, but this is not the slate for him in the $8,000 range. He’s basically George Kirby lite, and we can just play the actual Kirby or someone better at a similar salary on DK.
I’m a little more torn on Bailey Ober against Pittsburgh. It’s been an inconsistent season, both with results and with the strikeouts and walks. He’s had a very tough run of matchups, but he’s at just a 15:8 K:BB ratio over his last 4 starts, which does not line up with all these other aces. But this is the most favorable matchup he’s had in over a month, and he’s the cheapest of the aces. I end up calling him my favorite pitcher below Eovaldi, which gets him into the primary pool. The first priority is to spend to get a better SP1, but I will be willing to settle on Ober where it’s needed.
I was hoping Hurston Waldrep would be in the $7,000 range on DK, where he’d be a more viable pivot off the aces. As it is, he’s a pretty tough sell at $8,100 when we can just get Ober instead of him or pay just a few bucks more for someone like Eovaldi. This kid is an intriguing talent, but he’s made just two starts above Double-A with just a total of 70 innings above Single-A. In large-field MME, I think it’s viable to throw a few darts here, as he probably has a higher ceiling than Ober or Littell, but this is not something I’m chasing in primary lineups.
CHEAP STUFF AND NONSENSE
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