Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Thursday, August 1st
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Thursday…maybe! We’ve got a small 5-game slate that starts a little earlier than usual at 6:40 p.m. ET. However, 3 of the 5 games start the day as Yellow/Orange from Roth in the MLB Weather Report. With these few games, it would throw a huge wrench in things if we were to lose any game or have a couple of games with high delay chances. For now, I’m just going to write this up as if everything plays, but this is not a set it and forget it kind of day.
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Thursday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We’ve got a pretty clear dividing line with four good pitchers up top, followed by a bunch of mediocre pitching, including several in tough matchups.
TOP TIER PITCHING
Sonny Gray at Cubs – 30.6% K, 6% BB, 3.79 ERA, 2.96 SIERA
Seth Lugo at Tigers – 21.8% K, 5.6% BB, 2.66 ERA, 3.88 SIERA
Charlie Morton vs. Marlins – 23.2% K, 9% BB, 4.16 ERA, 4.07 SIERA
Shota Imanaga vs. Cardinals – 24.9% K, 3.8% BB, 2.95 ERA, 3.55 SIERA
Sonny Gray has suddenly allowed a slew of runs over his last 5 starts. After 21 runs in 28 innings, his ERA climbed from 2.81 to 3.79. However, even with all those runs, the underlying numbers still look strong. He’s at a 27.8% strikeout rate with 4% walks over those 5 starts, which still leaves him as the best pitcher on this slate in terms of K-BB%. He simply has a silly .425 BABIP and 22.7% HR/FB in that span, and none of that is going to continue. It’s all very close with these top four, but Gray is officially my SP1.
The winner of the best matchup competition goes to…
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