Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Thursday, August 22nd
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Thursday! We’ve got a day filled with baseball, split up into two 5-game slates. We have an early 5-gamer at 1:05 PM ET and then another 5-gamer starting a little earlier than usual at 6:40 PM ET.
The weather looks like it going to cooperate again according to our MLB weather forecast, so let’s dive right in, starting with a look at this early slate.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our PrizePicks promo code and Underdog Fantasy promo code, two of the best DFS sites available today.
Thursday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We have some solid pitching options for this early slate. With no one reaching the $10,000 mark on either site, we should be able to play aces in most lineups.
TOP TIER PITCHING
Gerrit Cole vs. Guardians – 26.8% K, 7.1% BB, 4.15 ERA, 3.61 SIERA
Freddy Peralta at Cardinals – 28.2% K, 8.9% BB, 4.00 ERA, 3.64 SIERA
Justin Steele vs. Tigers – 24% K, 6.7% BB, 3.10 ERA, 3.81 SIERA
Jeffrey Springs at A’s – 25.3% K, 6% BB, 3.86 ERA, 3.64 SIERA
Osvaldo Bido vs. Rays – 24.1% K, 11.2% BB, 3.40 ERA, 4.35 SIERA
This is a strong group of pitching options, with the only real question being whether or not Osvaldo Bido belongs in this group. Before we get to that, let’s start at the high end with Gerrit Cole and Freddy Peralta.
Where this slate is difficult immediately is that Cole and Peralta have tougher matchups than Justin Steele and Jeffrey Springs. The long-term numbers strongly favor the skills of Cole and Peralta ahead of Steele and Springs, while the 2024 numbers are a little closer between all of them.
While all of these guys are playable, when I bring current form into the analysis, Freddy Peralta is the one who gets left out of the primary pool. He has not looked good in over a month, and while they have not been easy matchups, the drop in strikeouts and wavering control concern me. He always has slate-winning upside, but this is not a good strikeout matchup, and with no discount, he falls to 4th place for me.
Gerrit Cole has been far better than Peralta recently, and while he also has a lower-strikeout matchup, it’s not a bad matchup for power prevention outside of the couple big bats in the middle of the lineup. When we combine the last two seasons for Cole, he appears to have settled in as a 27% strikeout pitcher with good control who has upside when he’s at his best, and he is always HR/FB dependent. I like him, but let’s look at the next two before deciding who to call the SP1.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
