Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Tuesday, April 16th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Tuesday! After a weird low-scoring night, we are back at it today with a 10-game main slate starting at 7:07 PM ET. However, I am treating it like a 9-game slate, as we start the day with an Orange/Red in the weather report for the KC/CWS game. We find a sizeable top tier for both pitching and hitting, so let’s jump on in and see how it all shakes out.
Tuesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
I’m not including Brady Singer in my plans at this point, though he would also end up in this top tier if the weather clears up in Chicago. Without Singer, these are the five guys (mmmmm!) making up my top tier:
TOP-TIER PITCHING
Dylan Cease at Brewers – 27.5% K, 10% BB, 4.37 ERA, 4.05 SIERA
Hunter Greene at Mariners – 30.5% K, 9.5% BB, 4.83 ERA, 3.67 SIERA
Logan Gilbert vs. Reds – 25% K, 4.6% BB, 3.63 ERA, 3.69 SIERA
Lance Lynn at A’s – 24.1% K, 8.4% BB, 5.52 ERA, 4.28 SIERA
Jared Jones at Mets – 4th career start (34.7% K, 2.8% BB !!)
If we could somehow know that the numbers are real through just 18 career IP, then Jared Jones would be the clear SP1. There’s very close to a zero percent chance that these numbers are completely real, but he is one of the best pitching prospects in the game, and it’s not surprising to see him pitching well. However, at Triple-A last season, he had a 28.3% K rate with 9.7% walks, and I am not willing to believe that he is just a better pitcher in the majors after 3 starts. Digging in a little deeper, we find a remarkably high 18.9% swinging-strike rate that backs up the strikeouts. We also see home run issues already, and as a hard-throwing, fly-ball pitcher, I expect those to continue. My hunch is that the walks come up somewhere closer to his minor league numbers, and when his strikeouts even out, we’d be looking at something very similar to Hunter Greene. It’s conceivable that Jones is just that guy who starts out strong and never lets up, but for me, I’m assuming he’s Hunter Greene right now.
So, for argument’s sake, let’s say that is the case. Would you want the actual Hunter Greene in Seattle for $9,000 or the maybe Hunter Greene in New York for $8,500?
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