Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Wednesday, April 17th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Wednesday! We have a very busy day with an early start at 1:05 PM ET. There are 11 games on the docket this afternoon, so I’m going to dive right into things and try not to be as wordy as usual so that we get this out with plenty of time to spare.
We’ll also have an early Crunch Time at 12:20 PM ET, where I will fill you in on any final thoughts about this slate.
Wednesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
There are some big price discrepancies between DK and FD with the top-tier pitchers. I’m going to focus more on the DK pricing, at least in terms of sorting these options into groups:
TOP-TIER PITCHING
Tarik Skubal vs. Rangers – 32.5% K, 4.8% BB, 2.67 ERA, 2.78 SIERA
Freddy Peralta vs. Padres – 31.6% K, 7.5% BB, 3.73 ERA, 3.30 SIERA
Kevin Gausman vs. Yankees – 30.5% K, 7% BB, 3.57 ERA, 3.36 SIERA
Pablo Lopez at Orioles – 28.7% K, 6% BB, 3.76 ERA, 3.39 SIERA
Bryce Miller vs. Reds – 22.3% K, 5.3% BB, 4.03 ERA, 4.15 SIERA
Brady Singer at White Sox – 19.6% K, 6.9% BB, 5.06 ERA, 4.32 SIERA
I am of the opinion that Freddy Peralta and Tarik Skubal are two of the best pitchers in the league this season, and until they give me any reason to believe otherwise, or until the salaries adjust up, I’m just playing them. Neither have ideal matchups, and when combined with the highest salaries on the slate and a deep pitching pool, it could mean they won’t be overly chalky.
For me, I’m firmly on the side of Freddy Peralta as the SP1. I’ve said it before his last couple starts, and I’ll say it again – it’s quite possible that he is hitting a new level and simply becomes the best DFS pitcher in the league. He has always had the strikeout upside, which is soaring higher through 3 starts, and the control just keeps getting better. At some point, he’ll regress and he’ll have a bad start—I’m not saying he’s just going to go 35-0—but at this moment, I am all in on this skill set. On DK, he’s too cheap and the clear SP1 for me. On FD, he is priced up more appropriately, and while still my SP1, I’ll be more spread out.
I absolutely love Tarik Skubal as well, but he doesn’t have quite the same leash as Peralta, and he’s more expensive. If I can play them both, great, but if not, it’s Skubal who is just the great MME pivot.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
