Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Wednesday 7/2

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-07-02 21:41:43 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Wednesday! We’ve got a busy day of baseball filled with games all throughout the day and several doubleheaders. That leaves us with split slates for DFS. The main slate is a 10-gamer starting at the usual 7:07 PM ET. But first, we have a very early 5-game slate that begins at 12:10 PM ET. Lunchtime for you East Coasters! I’ll start with a quick peek at this early slate and then be back in a bit with a look into the evening slate.

One last thing before we get to the slates. Yesterday was a great reminder how important it is to stay in tune with Roth’s MLB Weather page. Hopefully today isn’t as eventful as yesterday.

Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our Sleeper promo code and PrizePicks promo code, two of the best DFS apps available today.

Wednesday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

TOP TIER PITCHING

We have a pretty strong group of pitchers and without a single one priced above $10,000 on either site, so you should be able to afford them.

• Sonny Gray at Pirates – 26.9% K, 4.5% BB, 3.36 ERA, 3.11 SIERA
• Freddy Peralta at Mets – 25.5% K, 8.8% BB, 2.90 ERA, 3.80 SIERA
• Nick Pivetta at Phillies – 27.9% K, 6.6% BB, 3.36 ERA, 3.36 SIERA
• Ryan Pepiot vs. A’s – 23.7% K, 7.7% BB, 3.36 ERA, 3.85 SIERA
• Clay Holmes vs. Brewers – 20.4% K, 9.5% BB, 2.97 ERA, 4.18 SIERA

Last week, Sonny Gray had one of the best starts of any pitcher all season, with an 11-strikeout complete game where he allowed just 1 hit. Even more incredible than those numbers was doing it on just 89 pitches. Over his last 8 starts, we’ve now seen 3 double-digit strikeout starts interspersed with 5 starts of 5 or fewer strikeouts. This leaves us with a ton of question as to his true strikeout level right now, but there is no questioning the upside. I’m basically ignoring that last start, but even so, when adding in the matchup with his great control, he ends up as my SP1 on this slate. There is virtually no salary difference between the top three pitchers, and with similar skill sets, I’ll just take the one facing the Pirates.

Freddy Peralta and Nick Pivetta both have plenty of upside as well, but neither have ideal matchups for strikeouts, and neither have the consistency I like to see from spend-up aces. That all plays into why I’m going with Gray as my SP1, but I would still certainly play one of these guys with him if I have the salary. My preference is with Pivetta over Peralta. It’s close, but I prefer the matchup as well as the better control and slightly more regularity with the strikeouts this season.

After those top three, we get a slight dip in salary to Ryan Pepiot and Clay Holmes. Both guys have had some ups and downs, including in their last start, but everything about Pepiot’s numbers are better, and it’s a more favorable matchup. They are both playable, but I have a preference for Pepiot. This is even more true on FD where Pepiot is down at $8,100.

CHEAPER OPTIONS

• Mick Abel vs. Padres – 18.8% K, 4.2% BB, 3.47 ERA, 4.18 SIERA
• Mitch Spence – 20.1% K, 7.7% BB, 3.82 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
• Mitch Keller vs. Cardinals – 18.5% K, 6% BB, 3.90 ERA, 4.14 SIERA

I do not like what we’ve seen from Mick Abel since his strong first start, as he’s sitting with just a 9:4 K:BB ratio in 17 innings. Add in serious home run issues, and I am not thrilled about messing with him in a low strikeout matchup.

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