Million Dollar Musings: Wednesday, July 26
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Split Slate Wednesday! We’ve got a doubleheader in DFS, opening with a 5-game early slate on both FD and DK starting at 12:05pm ET. I’ll start with a quick look at that 5-gamer and then come back with another set of Musings for the evening main slate. The sites are slightly different for tonight, with FD starting earlier at 6:40pm to include a 6th game, while DK is running a 5-game main slate at the usual 7:05pm start time. That’s a lot of baseball!
Grab some coffee and let’s jump in to get a head start on finding some MLB DFS picks for the very early Wednesday start.
Wednesday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
I’ll split up the pitching into two groups based on salary, which leaves us with four pitchers up top and then a couple viable salary-savers.
Something Like Four Aces
Joe Ryan vs. Mariners – 29.4% K, 4.6% BB, 3.88 ERA, 3.36 SIERA
Zach Eflin vs. Marlins – 25.7% K, 3.6% BB, 3.36 ERA, 3.33 SIERA
Freddy Peralta vs. Reds – 26.7% K, 9.7% BB, 4.72 ERA, 4.09 SIERA
Bryce Miller at Twins – 23.5% K, 5.5% BB, 3.50 ERA, 4.07 SIERA
Like seemingly every pitcher in the league, Joe Ryan has been allowing some runs recently, but the strikeouts are consistent with the highest upside on this slate. He’s seen 7+ strikeouts in six of his last seven starts and gets another plus matchup here for upside. The home runs are a bit alarming, with a crazy 11 HRs in his last five starts, but as long as he keeps getting the strikeouts and innings, I’m just going to assume the homers come back down to earth.
However, as much as I’m confident in Ryan, I wouldn’t blame you at all for preferring Zach Eflin, with his even steadier control, plenty of upside of his own, and a lower-risk matchup at home against the Marlins. We’ve seen two zero-strikeout games from Eflin this season, but in between them, he’s basically the same type of strikeout pitcher as Freddy Peralta or Bryce Miller. His matchup and control are enough to put him ahead of those guys, and for me, it’s Ryan as SP1 and Eflin as SP1-A.
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