Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Wednesday 7/9

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-07-09 16:11:45 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Wednesday! Baseball is a constant reminder that nothing in life is out of reach. Brayan Rocchio can hit his 1 home run of the season off of Hunter Brown, and a catcher who ranks 440th in the league in sprint speed can win a game with a walk-off inside-the-park HR. Never give up on your dreams!

Tonight, we get another big slate that appears to have endless upside on both sides of the ledger. I’ve been able to get things sorted into tiers, but within those tiers, particularly on the hitting side, it all has clear slate-winning upside.

The MLB weather is going to need be monitored again tonight, particularly in the NYM/BAL game and also perhaps with SEA/NYY. For now, I’ve included that NYM/BAL game in the analysis, with a lot to like on the Mets side, but I will not make any firm decisions on that game until later.

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Wednesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

I’m going to start with everyone at $8,000 and above on DK as the top tier. We are likely to run into some pretty heavy chalk with Lucas Giolito, at least on DK, but there are some options priced above him who have strikeout upside if you want to spread out.

TOP TIER PITCHING

• Kris Bubic vs. Pirates – 25.6% K, 7.7% BB, 2.36 ERA, 3.56 SIERA
• MacKenzie Gore at Cardinals – 30.5% K, 7.9% BB, 3.11 ERA, 3.15 SIERA
• Andrew Abbott vs. Marlins – 23% K, 6.5% BB, 2.15 ERA, 3.98 SIERA
• Dylan Cease vs. Diamondbacks – 28.9% K, 8.6% BB, 4.62 ERA, 3.39 SIERA
• David Peterson at Orioles – 20.2% K, 8.6% BB, 3.18 ERA, 3.91 SIERA
• Brandon Walter vs. Guardians – 22.8% K, 1.4% BB, 4.15 ERA, 2.98 SIERA
• Lucas Giolito vs. Rockies – 21.1% K, 7.6% BB, 3.66 ERA, 4.16 SIERA
• Slade Cecconi at Astros – 22.9% K, 7.8% BB, 3.56 ERA, 4.00 SIERA
• David Festa vs. Cubs – 24.2% K, 8.6% BB, 5.48 ERA, 3.87 SIERA

Rather than starting up top, let’s just get the chalk out the way first. Lucas Giolito is tonight’s winner of the ‘who gets to face the Rockies’ sweepstakes. We’ve seen Giolito up over 7 innings and 100 pitches in back-to-back starts, and he now has 5 straight quality starts since his last disaster. His overall skills are nothing amazing but are completely acceptable, even if there doesn’t end up being another level here. I’m going to say he’s pretty good chalk, although I will also tell you that in smaller-field tournaments – where I expect his ownership to get a little out of control – I’m going to look for reasons to fade him. On DK, he’s considerably cheaper than the top aces, and even while I will certainly rank him 1st for most likely top points-per-dollar outcome, I’m never in love with a heavy chalk pitcher who isn’t elite. On FD, he’s priced up at $9,700, which is the 2nd-most-expensive pitcher on the board. That actually makes me like him more, and he probably splits ownership with Bubic.

The first option to fade Giolito would be to spend up to one of the higher-strikeout pitchers priced above him: MacKenzie Gore, Dylan Cease, Kris Bubic, or Andrew Abbott.

Of that group, while Gore and Cease have the higher strikeout rates, the matchup is enough better for Kris Bubic that he is my preferred option.

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