Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Wednesday 5/14

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-05-14 16:05:49 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Wednesday! We have a very interesting 9-game slate tonight that begins at 7:07 p.m. ET. There are a ton of terrible pitchers on the slate, leading to more offense than you can shake a stick at. In something like 10 years of writing the Musings, I don’t know if I’ve ever said ‘shake a stick at’ before, and I guess it was just time. If you’re lucky, it will be another 10 years before it shows up again, but we’ll see what happens!

We also have an early 4-game slate on each site, though they are different slates with a 1:05 p.m. ET start on DK and an earlier 12:05 p.m. ET start on FD. We’ll have expert tags and analysis in the MLB DFS optimizer to get you headed in the right direction with those early games.

Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our Sleeper promo code and PrizePicks promo code, two of the best DFS apps available today.

Wednesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

This has to be the strangest pitching slate we’ve seen all season. The lack of high-end aces leaves us with just one spend-up option and then a bunch of below-average pitchers in great matchups, which have caused them to be priced up over $8,000 on DK. I get it, matchup matters, but goodness, it looks wonky as all get out to see guys like Patrick Corbin and Jameson Taillon priced at the same point where Dylan Cease was yesterday. Because of the steep drop-off after Yamamoto, I’m going to put everyone above $7,500 in the top tier.

THE ACE AND THE WHAT NOW?

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. A’s – 30.3% K, 8% BB, 1.80 ERA, 2.72 SIERA
• Clay Holmes vs. Pirates – 24.7% K, 9% BB, 2.74 ERA, 3.59 SIERA
• Chris Bassitt vs. Rays – 25% K, 4.1% BB, 3.35 ERA, 3.18 SIERA
• Nick Lodolo vs. White Sox – 19.3% K, 3.6% BB, 3.23 ERA, 3.80 SIERA
• Patrick Corbin vs. Rockies – 14.9% K, 9% BB, 3.13 ERA, 5.01 SIERA
• Jameson Taillon vs. Marlins – 19.3% K, 5% BB, 4.53 ERA, 4.05 SIERA
• Ryan Pepiot at Blue Jays – 20.3% K, 8.6% BB, 3.86 ERA, 4.29 SIERA
• Bryce Elder vs. Nationals – 18.8% K, 7.5% BB, 4.97 ERA, 4.12 SIERA

We finally saw a bad start from Yoshinobu Yamamoto last week, but it was in one of the toughest possible matchups, and he’s still left with a fully elite 30.3% K rate, 1.80 ERA and 2.72 SIERA through 8 starts. In most cases, I’d say $10,500 looks a little steep for anyone in a non-ideal matchup, but with the state of this pitching slate, he’s still the very clear SP1 for raw points and upside. Let’s just look at the rest of the slate before deciding if this is any sort of must-play.

With this next bucket, you just need to decide how much matchup really matters. The first thing I’m going to say is that I am not paying $8,300 for Patrick Corbin. Cut it out. Anything is possible, but he just doesn’t have realistic upside in any matchup, not even this one. He’s been real-life good, and there’s no reason he can’t get another quality start here, but this is not the salary where I want to chase a quality start from a guy with a 13.7% K rate against righties. I think he’s more viable on FD at $7,800, where his discount from guys like Bassitt, Holmes, and Lodolo is more significant.

Without considering matchup, I would say that Chris Bassitt and Clay Holmes are battling for 2nd-best pitcher on this slate. They both had a couple early-season strikeout spikes but generally look more like average strikeout pitchers. Bassitt lives a bit more on his control, while Holmes leans on his ground ball ability. Given how close they are, I will then move to matchup, which gives the advantage to Holmes. It’s a perfectly good matchup for Bassitt as well, but this Pirates team has been complete nonsense against righties this season, and they could be without their one good hitter again tonight in Oneil Cruz. Even with Cruz, this Pittsburgh team is dead last in the league in scoring, behind the Rockies and White Sox, while also ranking last in ISO against righties. With salary factored in, Holmes is my top pitcher on the slate, even ahead of Yamamoto. Bassitt is very much in the pool, but let me look at the next couple of guys before deciding where he lands.

Nick Lodolo has been all over the place this season, but the control has been extremely solid and has led to 5 quality starts in 8 outings. His one disaster start looks more like a batted ball fluke than anything, and there is at least some chance that he’s getting back closer to his old strikeout ability, as the swings and misses have risen in recent weeks. The White Sox are really not a great strikeout matchup for lefties, but they have a staggering lack of power. Even if the strikeouts don’t come all the way back, he’s still a much better version of Patrick Corbin. I think he’s overpriced on FD, but on DK, he’s my favorite pitcher below $9,000. I prefer him to Bassitt, making him my SP3 on this slate.

Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!