Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Wednesday, May 8th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Wednesday! We’ve got a very busy day with two big slates and an early start. We have no time for Tom Foolery, and he is still sleeping anyway.
I’m going to jump right into this early slate that begins at 12:35 PM ET on DK and 1:05 PM ET on FD. I’ll be back shortly after that with a look at the evening slate. You can catch all of my updated thoughts on these slates with double-duty Crunch Time. The early slate show is at 12:00 PM ET, and the main slate show is at 6:00 PM ET.
One important note regarding the early slate. Roth has the NYM/STL game as Orange, and that game has one of the top pitchers on the slate, Sonny Gray. For now, I’m including that game in my plans, but this will be a spot to pay attention and tune into Crunch Time to get that final weather report.
BASEBALL!!
Wednesday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
On a slate that starts right around lunchtime, we have a top tier of Five Guys!! This has to be a good omen.
TOP-TIER QUINTET
Sonny Gray vs. Mets – 33.3% K, 4.4% BB, 0.89 ERA, 2.36 SIERA
Dylan Cease at Cubs – 29.8% K, 8.7% BB, 2.55 ERA, 3.30 SIERA
Aaron Nola vs. Blue Jays – 22.7% K, 8.5% BB, 3.32 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
Tanner Bibee vs. Tigers – 25% K, 8.3% BB, 4.46 ERA, 3.72 SIERA
Brady Singer vs. Brewers – 26.1% K, 8.1% BB, 2.45 ERA, 3.30 SIERA
This is a solid group of pitchers, with Sonny Gray and Dylan Cease standing out ahead of the pack in strikeout ability. The 30% K rate of Cease looks believable based on his track record, while it’s likely that Gray backs off as he gets deeper into the season. However, it is notable that Gray is at a career-high swinging-strike rate, and he did have three straight seasons above a 27% K rate from 2019-2021, so it’s not out of the question that he can live up in that Cease range. When we bring in the matchups, it doesn’t do much to separate them. These are both decent, though not outstanding, matchups.
On FD, the salary gap is way too big, and I don’t have much interest at all in Gray at $11,600. On DK, these are my top two pitchers, but it’s very unlikely that salary will allow them to be paired together in most lineups. As much as I’m generally skeptical of Cease’s control, I just have far more trust in his strikeout ability as well as his pitch count. That makes Cease my SP1, with Gray my SP2. When you add in the potential weather issues for Gray, it makes it an even easier choice to side with Cease as the spend-up ace.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
