MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, August 18th
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, August 18th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Huge 12-game slate to end the week, with the Coors Field game being the only spot with some rain, but all games should get in today. In that Coors game, Tim Anderson will serve the first game of his five game suspension.
Joey Lucchesi is getting another shot for the Mets in a tough road matchup with STL, and Masyn Winn is being promoted for the likely everyday SS role, as Edman will have to play more CF with Nootbaar going on the IL.
Plenty more news and notes to talk about, along with some of my favorite MLB DFS picks for today, so let’s end the week with a bang!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- CHW/COL is currently rated yellow, as some scattered showers and isolated storms could cause a delay of some sort. They should figure out a way to get the game in regardless though, and I will not be fading bats here as it’ll be in the mid 80s to low 70s with 10-15mph wind out to right.
- BOS/NYY will also get a boost to bats, with 15mph wind out to center and temps in the mid 70s. SFG/ATL will be in the low 80s with a slight breeze out to center, while PHI/WSH will also be in the low 80s, with a 10mph left to right breeze.
- PIT/MIN will be in the mid 70s, with 15mph wind in from right. NYM/STL will be in the mid 70s with a slight breeze in from right. TBR/LAA will be in the mid 70s with a slight breeze out to right center. BAL/OAK will be in the mid 60s with 5-10 mph wind out to right center. ARI/SDP will be in the high 60s with a slight breeze in from left. MIA/LAD will be in the low 70s with barely any wind.
- Dome games today are MIL/TEX & SEA/HOU.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- We’ll see where newly promoted Masyn Winn hits in the Cardinals order today, as I could see him eventually hitting leadoff but likely starting in the 7-9 spots for now. Nootbaar is going on the IL, so look for Edman and Burleson to get most of his playing time in the OF.
- With Tim Anderson out today and the next four games as well, Elvis Andrus is the most likely candidate to hit leadoff and play SS, with Remillard likely handling 2B and hitting ninth. Eloy Jimenez is going on the paternity list, so Sheets should get more playing time against righties for a few games.
- The Angels are calling up first baseman Nolan Schanuel, who they took 11th overall in the draft less than six weeks ago. He should platoon with Cron at 1B for now.
- Lourdes Gurriel is hopeful to return to the lineup after sitting last game with a hip contusion, and Marte should be back in there after getting a breather yesterday.
- JD Martinez was scratched from the lineup yesterday as his adductor soreness flared up in BP, but he said he’s hopeful to be back in there today, but just know we could see another late scratch if you plan on using him.
- The White Sox and Rockies are the obvious top stacks today, as both are sitting on projected totals around 6 runs currently. Outside of Coors Field, I really like stacking ATL, STL, PHI, and MIN.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- It’s close between Strider ($11,500) and Lopez ($10,800) for top choice in cash games, but I’m going with Strider as I think his upside is just too high against this SF lineup. Lorenzen ($10,200) gets a rematch with the team he just no-hit, so I’d definitely have some GPP exposure, while Alcantara ($10,000) and Heaney ($8,600) are other SPs I like today that should be pretty low-owned.
- Michael Harris ($2,900) continues to be the best way to get cheap ATL exposure in cash games, and he’s the first bat I’m locking in. Ozuna ($2,700) and Rosario ($2,800) continue to rake from the 5-6 spots, and both are top value bats today.
- Luis Robert ($4,400) has a massive ceiling in Coors Field with the wind blowing out, so fit him if you can, while Andrus ($2,900), Benintendi ($3,100), and Moncada ($3,000) are solid cheaper ways to get White Sox exposure. Blackmon ($2,900), Tovar ($3,300), and Diaz ($3,100) are my top values from COL.
I like taking higher than 2.0 total bases for Robert on Underdog, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Tommy Edman ($2,900) should remain in the leadoff spot against another lefty today and is a great value bat with three position eligibility. Tyler O’Neill ($2,700) remains one of the best value OFs on the board, while Contreras ($2,700) is a solid option, likely hitting cleanup.
- Philly is loaded with value in Bohm ($3,000), Castellanos ($3,200), Stott ($3,100), and Turner ($3,000), and I like getting at least 1-2 of them in your main build. Minnesota is similar as their entire projected lineup is $3,100 or cheaper, so pick and choose any bat from the top 6 of their order if you need more value options.
- I’m actually considering Brandon Pfaadt ($6,000) for cash games, as he’s had 5+ strikeouts in each of his last three starts, and gets a rematch with SD, who he faced last time out and had over 16 FP. Using him and either Strider ($12,700) or Lopez ($10,600) will make it much easier to fit in more Coors Field, ATL, and other top bats you want.
- Harris ($4,400), Ozuna ($4,400), and Rosario ($3,800) remain top value bats to get ATL exposure, while Edman ($4,100), O’Neill ($3,600), and Contreras ($3,900) are where I’m looking for STL value.
- Andrus ($3,400), Benintendi ($3,800), Moncada ($4,000), and Vaughn ($3,900) are top value targets from the White Sox, while Blackmon ($4,100), Profar ($3,900), and Rodgers ($3,300) are my favorite values from COL.
- Some other cheap bats to consider today include Edouard Julien ($3,200), Max Kepler ($3,300), Josh Bell ($3,400), Ryan O’Hearn ($3,100), Mike Moustakas ($3,200), Harold Ramirez ($3,100), and DJ LeMahieu ($2,800).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!