Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (May 12)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
What a rollercoaster for the article. After our best Friday of the season, Tuesday was an absolute disaster. Pfaadt struggled again, Giolito shut down the Royals and Kirby was excellent against Texas. It happens. Need to bounce back today.
Drew Smyly’s Limited Workload vs. Minnesota’s LHP Struggles
Smyly has morphed into the classic crafty lefty, getting through the order a couple times by limiting hard contact. He’s posted career-best marks in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
The strikeouts have been middling, but the main concern is the length. Smyly hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER since his first start of the year, yet he’s only made it beyond the 5th inning twice.
The Twins have had a tough time against lefties, currently bottom five in all major offensive categories along with a 28.3% strikeout rate (3rd-highest).
SUMMARY: There’s a solid chance Smyly pitches well. The key is getting through six innings and being in line for the win. I like Smyly to work deep enough into this one to hit his ceiling projections.
I’m also taking the Cubs on the First 5 Innings spread (+0.5 at -120 on BetMGM).
Adam Wainwright’s One Trick vs. Boston’s Overwhelming Offense
Wainwright made his season debut last week against Detroit. He featured the curveball like usual and it accounted for four of his five strikeouts. Even at Wainwright’s advanced age, the spinner was a supremely effective pitch in 2022 (-10 run value).
This Red Sox bunch is a buzzsaw. It’s not a lineup packed with superstars, but they’ve been right there with the Rays and Rangers in terms of run production.
Four of the first five hitters in their projected lineup have above-average hard-hit rates against curveballs, and Masataka Yoshida isn’t far off (limited sample).
SUMMARY: Boston shouldn’t command the ownership of the Coors game so I like them as a pivot stack. Jarren Duran makes sense on both sites if you’re looking for a one-off play.
Houston’s Underwhelming Offense vs. Michael Kopech’s Contact Metrics
Literally no one is getting hit harder than Kopech. His 53.2% hard-hit rate is 1st percentile, leading to a 2nd percentile 8.12 xERA (5.97 actual ERA).
The Astros have been mediocre overall on offense and below average against RHPs. They’re 27th in OPS and wOBA and 24th in wRC+ vs. righties on the season. Over the last two weeks, Houston is dead last in those metrics.
SUMMARY: It’s been a struggle for the Astros, but I like them to break out against Kopech. This will be a lightly-rostered stack and every hitter outside of Yordan Alvarez is cheap on FanDuel.