Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (September 29)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
The final Three True Outcomes of the year. It’s been a fun ride, I’ve really enjoyed it. Based on my rough match, we’re looking at 50+ articles, 150+ matchups, and 1,000,000+ Cole Ragans references. Thanks for following along!
Nick Pivetta’s Current Role vs. Baltimore’s Potential Apathy
Pivetta was probably Boston’s most reliable starter this year. It’s crazy that they kept bouncing him between the rotation and the bullpen. He’s been mostly a normal starter in September and has posted a 3.08 ERA and a 28:4 K:BB over four starts.
Pivetta’s also tossed 90+ pitches in three straight games, so the length should be there. He’s recorded quality starts in consecutive outings.
Baltimore is normally a tough matchup, but this is a unique spot. The Orioles locked up the division title and the best record in the AL last night, which means they have nothing to play for tonight. It’s been a grueling battle holding off Tampa Bay, so I’m expecting many of the regulars to hit the bench here.
SUMMARY: Pivetta’s price is more than fair. He’s in good form, and he might get a watered-down Baltimore lineup. It’s a perfect setup for a guy who’s excelled for most of the season.
New York’s Prices vs. New York’s Terribleness
Austin Wells is hitting cleanup for this lineup. That’s all you need to know.
The Yankees get a slam-dunk matchup against Jordan Lyles, who has a 6.24 ERA and leads the league with 17 losses. It should be a no-brainer stack, especially with Kansas City’s bullpen ranking 29th in ERA. But which names do you feel good about clicking? The Yankees are 26th in OPS and 27th in wOBA this month. Only the Angels and Athletics are striking out more than this lineup.
There’s a good chance some of the Yankees have good games. And the sites are begging us to play these bats, with only Aaron Judge above $3K on FanDuel and just Judge and Gleyber Torres above $4K on DraftKings.
SUMMARY: I’ll be sticking to one-off plays here, solely because I don’t feel comfortable having 3-4 pinstriped headshots in my lineup right now. If you’re multi-entering, could definitely see upping the exposure to New York. I’m taking a cautious approach.
Cincinnati’s Youngsters vs. Jake Woodford’s Ground Balls
The Reds have quite the core of promising young players. Shoutout to them for bringing them all up too, instead of playing games with service time.
Cincinnati is in the top eight in OPS, wOBA and ISO against RHP in September. They have plenty of bats to choose from; you just have to make sure to double-check their lineup with guys frequently moving around.
Woodford’s Baseball Savant page is deep blue … except for the ground balls. He’s 1st or 2nd percentile in K%, whiff rate, chase rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and xERA. But it’s that pesky ground-ball rate (88th percentile) keeping this from being an easy stack. Woodford gave up three HRs in his first start of the season, but since then, he’s only allowed five dingers over 41.2 IP.
SUMMARY: The key here might be the Cardinals’ bullpen. St. Louis is 23rd in bullpen ERA, and we should only see 3-4 innings from Woodford. *I like this as an under-owned stack with some upside.I certainly feel more comfortable with the Reds than the Yankees.