Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (September 8)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
We’re now in the most glorious sports time of the year. Buckle up.
Trusting Luis Severino’s vs. Price + Matchup
On a slate without much cheap pitching, Severino at $5.5K on DraftKings sticks out. But man, can you bring yourself to click his name?
Severino has posted career highs in ERA and hard-hit rate, along with a career low in strikeout rate. His 5.98 xERA is 5th percentile among qualified starters. It had been a lost season for Severino … until he rattled off two scoreless starts to end August. He was knocked around by Houston last time out, but come on, it’s the Astros.
If you want a tangible change, Severino added a cutter in early July. Now, he had an 11.22 ERA in July. But the pitch has performed decently (.233 BA allowed) and he’s thrown it more than his terrible slider over his last seven starts (23.2% vs. 22.1%).
SUMMARY: Look, it could go well. Milwaukee is 27th in wRC+ vs. RHPs since the start of August. And at $5.5K? That’s worth using Severino as your SP2.
Griffin Canning’s Hard Contact vs. Cleveland’s Flimsy Lineup
Canning has boosted his strikeout rate to a career-high 26.8% while trimming his walks to a career-low 6.4%. That’s a good combo. The problem is he’s 6th percentile in average exit velocity and 12th percentile in hard-hit rate. Despite the hard contact, his xERA is down at 3.92 (compared to a 4.30 ERA).
Luckily for Canning, Cleveland is dead last in average exit velocity and hard hit rate. They’re 25th in wRC+ vs. RHPs since the start of August and haven’t been a ridiculously tough strikeout matchup during that stretch (8th-lowest K%).
Since rejoining the rotation, Canning has fired two quality starts with 16 strikeouts in 13 innings.
SUMMARY: If you need savings from Senga/Montgomery and don’t want to go down to Severino, Canning is my pick. I love Senga today and will do what I can to fit him in, but Canning is a solid consolation prize.
Baltimore Lefties vs. Tanner Houck’s Splits
Houck isn’t awful, and his xERA (4.14) paints a more positive picture than his ERA (5.07). Lefties have been a problem though. Houck has limited RHBs to a .220/.294/.277 slash line, but LHBs are at a healthy .281/.347/.549.
Houck has allowed 11 HRs over 81.2 IP, and lefties have accounted for 10 of them. LHBs unsurprisingly have a massive .268 ISO against him.
Baltimore’s projected lineup has six lefties in it (including switch hitters). Five of them have above-average ISOs against righties.
SUMMARY: I’ll be focusing on the big power of Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander, but don’t hate this as a full stack. Ryan O’Hearn and Adam Frazier offer some salary savings and Adley Rutschman is always viable.